Economy
Brent Futures Climb $1 on US-Iran War Uncertainty
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent futures climbed $1.06 or 1.3 per cent to $83.55 a barrel on Friday amid ongoing uncertainty about the negotiations in progress that determine control of and reopening of the key shipping artery of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished at $78.18 a barrel after it chalked up 89 cents or 1.15 per cent.
Iran is reviewing a bill to ban American and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passed before the war began at the end of February.
Market analysts noted that while this week’s signals on a potential deal have sent a roller-coaster ride in market sentiment, the market remains in the dark as to what needs to happen for the agreement to be clinched.
Part of the question being asked is whether the Iran-Oman agreement would allow a US-flagged vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz or allow a vessel headed for an American port to go through.
Shipping through Hormuz remains heavily constrained as Middle East oil production is still well below pre-war levels while attacks on commercial vessels have continued even as negotiators discuss possible arrangements for the waterway.
Some also said that this week’s developments have signalled that hostilities between Iran and the US are not yet over. This is because the proposed deal is not easily workable because of sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments by the US government.
Iran is seeking fees of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait, while Oman is discussing fees of about 3 per cent, while the Donald Trump administration wants no fees at all.
Citi has raised its third-quarter Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $75 as the war drags on and repeated attempts at a deal fail to restore normal oil flows through the strait.
The bank still expects the conflict to be resolved, but the five-month war has lasted longer than Citi anticipated and kept more geopolitical risk in crude prices. Citi left its fourth-quarter Brent forecast unchanged at $70 per barrel and still sees the benchmark averaging $65 in 2027.
