Economy
Businesses in Nigeria Maintain Positive Performance Streak in June 2025
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
For the sixth consecutive month in 2025, businesses in Nigeria maintained a positive performance streak, remaining in the expansion region, according to the Business Confidence Monitor report of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), supported by Stanbic IBTC.
The report obtains qualitative information on the current business performance within the Nigerian economy and gauges expectations about overall economicactivities in the short term.
It is anchored on business managers’ optimism on key leading economic indicators such as investment, prices, demand conditions, employment, etc, combining leading qualitative indicators on Production, Investment, Export, Demand Conditions, Prices, Employment, and the General Business Situation to gauge the overall business optimism of the Nigerian economy.
The target respondents for the Business Confidence Survey (BCS) are business establishments operating in Nigeria that have been engaged in economic activities since the beginning of 2023. The survey is administered to senior managers and business executives.
According to the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), the Current Business Index rose to 113.6 points in June from 109.8 points in May 2025, driven by easing inflationary pressures, improved investor confidence and climate, and stronger business resilience across key sectors.
Sectoral analysis showed expansion across all sectors and broader economic activities. Strong business growth was observed in Manufacturing (123.6), non-manufacturing (120.7), and Trade (121.0) in June 2025. The Agriculture and Services sectors also expanded, though only slightly above the origin (100 index points), reaching 108.9 and 106.3 index points, respectively.
However, Non-manufacturing’s performance declined when compared with its May 2025 level of 122.2. This decline is linked to factors such as credit squeeze, rising inventories due to weak demand, and high (weak) exchange rates, which fuel imported inflation and escalate production costs, especially as many companies in this sector depend on imported inputs.
Despite the overall positive trend, structural challenges constrained broader business growth. Key BCM sub-indices investment, export, supply order, prices, and employment recorded lower values compared to the previous month. The cost of doing business also rose in June, reversing the slight relief observed in May 2025.
Businesses identified major constraints such as limited access to financing, persistent electricity supply shortages, inconsistent economic policies, inadequate foreign exchange availability, and elevated commercial lease and rental costs.
In June 2025, the index for the Agriculture sector rebounded from its temporary contraction in May 2025, returning to the expansion region. The sector index rose to 108.9 points in the month, up from 98.2 points in May. This recovery was primarily driven by a swift rebound in the Crop Production sub-sector, which contributed over 80 per cent of total output.
The reversal of the May 2025 downturn is attributed to several favorable developments: the harvest period coinciding with the New Yam Festival celebrated nationwide, the commencement of wet-season planting, a boost in livestock activities following the inclusion of high-yield Danish dairy heifers, and the operationalization of various agro-processing initiatives supported by multilateral development institutions.
A breakdown of performance across the five agricultural sub-sectors shows that only Fishing recorded a contraction (below 100 points) in June 2025. Other sub-sectors experienced expansion in business activities, with significant growth in Crop Production (109.6, up from 95.1 in May 2025). Agro-Allied (108.2), Livestock (105.2), and Forestry (100.0) also remained in the expansion region.
Despite these gains, many agribusiness owners pointed to several ongoing challenges affecting their operations, with limited access to finance being the most critical. Many reported difficulty securing loans, which limits their ability to procure essential inputs like feed, drugs, and agricultural equipment.
Other challenges include infrastructure deficits particularly unreliable power supply and weak transportation and logistics networks rising input costs, high rental and operational expenses, growing insecurity, and regulatory burdens. Unstable power supply remains a major concern, especially for poultry and fish farmers who rely heavily on cold storage and water systems, thus increasing their energy costs. This situation contributed to a rise in the cost-of-doing business index to 136.3 in June, from 120.2 in May 2025.
NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Index for the manufacturing sector showed that businesses experienced expansion, recording an index of 123.6 points in June 2025. This marks a significant improvement from 114.4 points in May 2025. The uptick reflects stronger performance across key sub-sectors, boosting overall manufacturing output in Nigeria.
Major contributors to this expansion include Textile, Apparel & Footwear; Cement; Plastic and Rubber Products; Wood and Wood Products; and Pulp, Paper and Paper Products. Despite this progress, manufacturers highlighted persistent structural constraints, raw material shortages, unreliable electricity, high import tariffs, inflation, and insecurity.
Rising production costs, high rents, imported machine parts, and diesel worsened by weak domestic currency continue to weigh on output and profits. Multiple taxes, weak demand, unstable policies, and poor access to finance further stifle growth and expansion.
In addition, insecurity hampers the sourcing of raw materials, further disrupting production. While most sub-sectors recorded positive performance, some particularly Motor Vehicle and Assembly posted declines. Still, the strength of major sub-sectors outweighed these losses, driving the sector’s overall index improvement.
Business conditions in Nigeria’s non-manufacturing sector posted a reading of +120.7 points in June 2025. This marks the second month in a row of declining business performance, highlighting growing concerns among businesses about the challenging economic environment. While still within expansion territory, the index continues a downward trend from 123.6 points in April and 122.2 in May, reflecting growing strains on sector-wide business optimism.
Many non-manufacturing industries attributed the weakening momentum to persistent structural and macroeconomic challenges. Poor power supply has increased reliance on costly diesel, while high rents, dilapidated roads, and other infrastructural deficits have inflated production and transportation costs, eroding business efficiency. Although the overall performance remained positive, the outlook varied across sub sectors.
Apart from Oil and Gas Services, which reported improved business activity, all other sub-sectors registered a decline compared to May, with “Other Non-Manufacturing” sliding into contraction at 98.4 points. Amplifying these pressures are rising exchange rates and restricted access to finance, which hinder procurement and planning. Meanwhile, mounting regulatory burdens and elevated inflation continue to compress productivity and profit margins. These worsening conditions have increased operational costs, curtailed expansion, and weakened investor confidence across the sector.
Nigeria’s Services sector sustained its business expansion momentum in June 2025, following a slight slowdown in the previous month (May 2025). The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Services Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Index rose to 106.3 points from 104.5 in May 2025. The improvement in business performance was driven by growth in the Broadcasting and Real Estate sub-sectors, supported by rising client/consumer demand and more stable operating conditions. Five of the six major service sub-sectors recorded business expansion. However, the Telecommunications and Information Services sub-sector experienced a contraction due to structural challenges, including the rising cost of service delivery primarily energy-related-delayed tariff adjustments, high exchange rates, and soaring dollar-denominated expenses for tower leases, network equipment, and international connectivity.
Other Services sub-sectors reported weak expansion in June, as amplified business constraints such as energy-related cost pressures, logistics bottlenecks, currency volatility, and persistent security issues, particularly in northern and rural areas continued to hinder service growth and raise operating costs. These factors eroded competitiveness and dampened business activity during the period.
The NESG–Stanbic IBTC Trade index recorded an expansion in June 2025, with the index rising to 121.0 points, up from 114.1 points in May 2025. The Retail sub-sector showed a notable rebound, shifting from the contraction zone of 89.2 points in May to 111.7 points in June 2025.
In contrast, the Wholesale sub-sector experienced a slight decline but remained in the expansion zone, registering 130.3 points in June. This performance underscores the enduring structural and macroeconomic constraints that continue to weigh heavily on the trade sector.
The modest improvement in some areas of sectoral performance was largely driven by increased consumer demand for essential goods, relative stability in the retail prices of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs), and improved conditions in supply chain logistics.
Traders across key urban centers reported higher sales volumes in food items, personal care products, and household essentials categories typically considered non-discretionary partly due to heightened demand from festival-related activities nationwide. Despite these gains, many trade businesses in Nigeria continue to struggle with a wide range of structural and operational challenges that impede their growth and profitability.
Chief among these is the lack of capital, followed closely by market price volatility and logistics and transportation bottlenecks. These challenges discourage investment, reduce business competitiveness, and make it increasingly difficult for entrepreneurs to sustain operations.
Entrepreneurs frequently cite limited access to affordable financing and prohibitively high interest rates on loans as key constraints. These financial barriers hinder the ability to expand operations, replenish inventory, or invest in productivity-enhancing tools.
To capture the short-term outlook and performance expectations of business owners in the country, the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Future Business Expectation Index provides insights into the levels of optimism and pessimism among businesses for the next one to three months. For June 2025, the index stood at 134.5 points, reflecting a slight improvement from 132.4 points in May 2025.
Across the sectors, the Manufacturing sector recorded the highest optimism at 160.4 points, followed by Trade (158.0 points) and non-manufacturing (153.5 points).
Meanwhile, the Services sector, at 122.3 points, showed the lowest level of optimism regarding expected improvements in the business environment.
Notably, sentiment improved in four sectors; Non-manufacturing, Manufacturing, Services, and Agriculture compared to May 2025, suggesting that despite higher index scores, businesses remain cautiously optimistic in their expectations due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
The generally optimistic outlook for Nigerian businesses is driven by a combination of seasonal economic activity, policy-driven interventions, relative exchange rate stability, ongoing infrastructure development, and a gradual recovery in consumer demand.
These drivers continue to support cautious optimism across various sectors, particularly in Agriculture, Retail Trade, Non-manufacturing, and Services. As these positive trends continue to build momentum, many businesses are positioning themselves to take advantage of new opportunities and more favourable operating conditions.
Economy
Run From Any Unregistered Online Investment Platform—SEC Warns Nigerians
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
For the umpteenth time, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has run to the rooftop to warn Nigerians against putting their hard-earned money in online investment platforms not authorised to operate in the nation’s capital market.
SEC is the apex regulatory agency in the Nigerian capital market. It issues licences to companies operating in the ecosystem.
In a statement on Thursday, the organisation expressed concerns over the rising “promotion of unregistered online investment schemes on social media applications and websites, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Telegram, Facebook, TikTok and other digital platforms.
In the notice, the SEC emphasised that, “Many of these investment schemes exhibit characteristics of Ponzi or Prohibited investment schemes, while some operators of such schemes also provide unauthorised investment services to members of the public.”
In view of these, the commission advised members of the public “to refrain from investing or participating in any unregistered online investment platform or scheme promising unrealistic or guaranteed returns.”
“Members of the public are further advised not to rely on investment advisories circulated through online platforms by persons or entities not registered by the commission, as reliance on such advisories may expose investors to significant financial losses and fraudulent schemes,” it noted.
“The public is reminded that, under the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025, only entities registered by the commission are authorised to promote investment services, provide investment advisory services or solicit funds from the public in the Nigerian capital market,” another part of the circular signed by the management noted.
The regulator urged the investing public to verify the registration status of any platform, company, or entity offering investment opportunities on its dedicated portal: https://sec.gov.ng/fintech-and-innovation- hub-finport/registered-fintech-operators/ or https://www.sec.gov.ng/cmos before transacting or investing with them.
Economy
Dangote Rejects NNPC Bid to Raise Stake in Soon-to-Be Listed Refinery
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, has disclosed that he rejected requests by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Mr Dangote stated this in a podcast with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Mr Nicolai Tangen.
In the podcast interview, the billionaire revealed that the state oil company offered to increase its current 7.25 per cent stake in the 650,000 barrels per day plant.
However, this was rejected because the company is planning to go public and give other Nigerians the opportunity to own shares in the plant.
Recall that the refinery is planning a multi-exchange listing and targeting a valuation of $50 billion. It has appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital to handle international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors; Vetiva Capital Management to manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria; and FirstCap to focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds.
It was reported in 2021 that the NNPC acquired the 7.25 per cent stake in the refinery for $1 billion, with an option to acquire the remaining 12.75 per cent stake by June 2024.
However, the national oil firm reneged on its decision.
During the interview with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO, Mr Dangote revealed that the state oil company had made attempts to acquire more stakes in the refinery, but this was turned down.
The revelation came while he was responding to questions about what could be the biggest risks to his businesses.
“Actually, if there are civil wars, which is not in the offing at all.
“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it.”
In 2024, Mr Dangote revealed that under the former Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Mele Kyari, the NNPC reduced its stake in the refinery from 20 per cent to 7.25 per cent. He disclosed that the NNPC had only a 7.2 per cent stake in the refinery and not 20 per cent as many Nigerians believed.
“The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent,” Mr Dangote stated at the time.
Economy
Pathway Asset Management’s Adekunle Alade Unveils Blueprint for Sustainable Wealth, Investment Opportunities
In this interview with Mr Adekunle Alade, Founder and Director of Pathway Asset Management Limited, he discusses the blueprint for sustainable wealth and investment opportunities. Excepts;
Could you please tell us about Pathway Asset Management?
Pathway Asset Management is registered and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria as a fund and portfolio manager company with the main focus of helping individuals, retail, HNIs and institutions make smarter investment decisions and build long-term sustainable wealth. We understand how complex and unpredictable the Nigerian market can be because we operate in it every day. So, we’ve built a firm that is clear, disciplined, and driven by research, not guesswork.
Our offerings cut across Pathway Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, Fixed Income Notes, Pathway Dollar Notes, Funds/Portfolio Management, Pathway Money Market Fund (coming soon), Pathway Dollar Funds (Coming Soon), and Investment Advisory services, all tailored to each client’s goal. But beyond the products, what really defines us is how we think: deep client understanding, strong governance, and a long-term mindset. That’s what guides every decision we make.
Can you walk us through Pathway Asset Management’s core investment philosophy and how it differentiates the firm in Nigeria’s asset management space?
Our philosophy is simple and profound. We are partners in our clients’ financial success. We create value, but never at the expense of disciplined risk management. Every investment is carefully assessed to ensure the returns justify the risk, helping clients move from speculation to structured, sustainable wealth building.
What sets us apart is our advisory DNA. We don’t just offer investment products; we bring an investment banker’s eye to asset management, combining strategic advice with precise execution.
We combine diversification, deep sector insight, and strong risk discipline to solve wealth preservation challenges, while prioritising transparency, client experience, and long-term outcomes.
Your portfolio includes Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, and Portfolio Management services. How do these products cater to varying investor risk appetites?
We’ve designed our products to meet clients exactly where they are. For more conservative investors, our Fixed Deposit and Money Market offerings are focused on capital preservation, liquidity, and stable income. For clients looking for higher returns, our Privately Managed Notes, across fixed income, hybrid, equity and dollar structures, offer more optimised yield with a bit more structure.
For more sophisticated or institutional clients, our portfolio management services provide a fully tailored approach. Some clients prefer us to take full discretion, while others want to stay involved. Essentially, we have a vehicle specifically engineered for different investors’ financial goals.
What’s next for Pathway Asset Management? Where are you focusing growth?
With the recent unveiling of our Board of Directors, we’ve strengthened our governance and strategic direction, which is important for where we’re going.
Over the next few months, our focus is on deepening client relationships, expanding our product offerings, especially mutual funds like our upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund and positioning the firm to take advantage of emerging opportunities. For us, growth is not just about scale; it’s about scaling responsibly while maintaining the discipline and trust we’ve built.
What gap in the market is the upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund designed to fill?
For a long time, the Nigerian investment space has had a gap. You either had low-yield savings accounts or high-entry institutional investments. The Pathway Money Market fund is designed to bridge that gap.
With rising inflation, many people are losing value just by keeping money in traditional bank accounts. What we’re doing is opening access, giving everyday investors a simple, regulated way to benefit from high-quality government and corporate instruments with as low as N5,000 to start investing. We want someone with relatively small capital to still participate in opportunities that were previously out of reach. Our focus isn’t just on returns; it’s about providing a liquid, SEC-regulated vehicle where a small saver can get a big-market yield and still have capital preserved.
As a firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, how do you ensure compliance while maintaining operational efficiency?
At Pathway Asset Management Limited, we view compliance as a competitive advantage, built into how we operate every day. To maintain efficiency while meeting and compliance, we have adopted a ‘Compliance-by-Design’ approach from onboarding clients to tech-enabled reporting and risk management without over-leveraging our resources.
We’ve put in place strong internal controls, invested in the right people, have clear processes, and a culture of accountability across the firm. At the same time, we leverage technology and experienced professionals to ensure compliance is seamless, not a bottleneck.
So, for us, it’s about getting it right from the start; operating efficiently while staying fully aligned with regulatory standards.
How do you assess the impact of Nigeria’s current monetary policy direction on investment portfolios?
We’re in a transition phase, from aggressive tightening to a more stable environment.
For us, that creates opportunity. In fixed income, we’re locking in high yields now, knowing that rates may compress as inflation moderates.
At the same time, improving stability in exchange rates and interest rates creates a better environment for businesses, which supports selective equity exposure.
So, rather than reacting, we’re positioning clients to benefit from both sides: strong yields today and potential upside as the macro environment improves.
What safeguards are in place to protect investor capital across your managed portfolios?
At Pathway Asset Management, the security of investor capital is built into our operations through a multi-layered ‘Triple-Lock’ framework. We operate strictly under the license and oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. This means our operations are subject to periodic review, stringent reporting requirements, and minimum capital adequacy standards.
We don’t just follow the rules; we embrace them as a baseline for trust. But beyond that, one key safeguard is that we don’t hold client funds directly; assets (cash and securities) are held by independent SEC-approved custodians. That separation is critical for transparency and protection. We also apply disciplined investment policies. We don’t chase returns at the expense of safety. Every investment goes through a rigorous assessment process.
How does Pathway Asset Management manage downside risks, particularly in a volatile macroeconomic environment marked by inflation and FX instability?
In a market like Nigeria, volatility isn’t an anomaly; it’s a constant. Our approach to managing downside risk is built on dynamic asset allocation and financial discipline. We also hedge against currency risk by giving clients access to dollar-denominated investments, which helps preserve value.
On inflation, we focus on assets that can reprice or deliver returns above inflation over time. Our focus is not just on returns, but on protecting value and delivering consistency.
What is your outlook for Nigeria’s asset management industry over the next five years?
Nigeria’s asset management industry is entering a defining transition period, and the SEC’s recapitalisation directive is the central catalyst. Over the next five years, the industry will move from a fragmented, lightly capitalised landscape to a more consolidated, institutional, and competitive ecosystem.
Many smaller or undercapitalised firms will be unable to comply independently, leading to mergers, acquisitions, or outright exits. Within the first two to three years, the number of asset managers is likely to shrink significantly, leaving behind a smaller group of well-capitalised firms alongside a handful of specialised niche players.
In terms of growth, the outlook is structurally positive but cyclical. Assets under management (AUM) are expected to expand at a solid pace, supported by high domestic interest rates, increased financial savings, and improved macroeconomic reforms.
However, this growth will remain sensitive to macro conditions, particularly FX stability and interest rate cycles. Because a large portion of capital inflows into Nigeria is still short-term and yield-driven, the industry should expect periods of volatility rather than smooth, linear expansion.
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