Economy
CBN Expects Nigeria’s Q2 2020 GDP to Slip 1.03%
By Dipo Olowookere
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said it expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country to contract by 1.03 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.
This information was revealed by a member of the board of directors of the CBN, Mr Mahmud Isa-Dutse, who is also a Permanent Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Finance.
Mr Isa-Dutse, who was at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the apex bank held on July 20, 2020, in Abuja, said the fiscal authorities will have to intensify effort aimed at addressing security challenges and other headwinds constraining the country’s growth and development.
According to him, the global health crisis since the beginning of this year will make Nigeria to continue to reel from the effects, particularly as policy headroom gets tighter.
“Although the growth data for Q2 2020 is still being awaited from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in-house projections by the CBN indicate that real GDP is expected to contract by -1.03 per cent in Q2 2020 which translates to a reduction of 2.9 percentage points when compared to the actual growth rate of 1.87 per cent obtained in Q1 2020.
“However, the annual real GDP predictions from multiple sources are grimmer for 2020. The World Bank and IMF project that the Nigerian economy will contract by -3.0 per cent and -5.4 per cent, respectively, in 2020, while CBN forecast suggests a possible contraction not exceeding a magnitude of -1.65 per cent in 2020,” the economist said during the MPC meeting, where he voted for the benchmark interest rate to remain at 12.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor at +200/-500 basis points around the MPR, the liquidity ratio at 30.0 per cent and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) left at CRR at 27.5 per cent.
Business Post reports that the stats office is expected to release the Q2 2020 GDP numbers next Monday morning and from various observers, the economy is expected to shrink as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the MPC meeting, Mr Isa-Dutse noted that he voted to have all the rates unchanged because it was the reasonable thing to do “to allow enough time for recent initiatives to permeate the economic system.”
According to him, a tightening policy option may dampen inflationary pressures, promote portfolio flows and reserve accretions and it may also constrain credit extension and worsen the pandemic-induced slump in output.
“A loosening stance of monetary policy on the other hand may be considered appropriate in view of the current recessionary quagmire confronting the country.
“However, the economy is already in a loosening mode given the recent policy rate cut in May 2020.
“Moreover, the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus being pumped into the economy has increased liquidity,” he said.
Economy
Crude Oil Down on Steady US Energy Demand Forecast
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.
On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.
Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.
On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.
Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.
ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.
Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.
China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.
For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.
In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.
Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.
Economy
Stock Exchange Suffers Heavy Loss as Investors Pull Out N1.1trn
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.
It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.
The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.
Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.
Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.
On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.
During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.
Economy
FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).
In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.
Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.
According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.
These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.
Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.
However, interested investor can only buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.
This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.
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