Economy
CBN Expects Nigeria’s Q2 2020 GDP to Slip 1.03%
By Dipo Olowookere
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said it expects the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country to contract by 1.03 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.
This information was revealed by a member of the board of directors of the CBN, Mr Mahmud Isa-Dutse, who is also a Permanent Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Finance.
Mr Isa-Dutse, who was at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the apex bank held on July 20, 2020, in Abuja, said the fiscal authorities will have to intensify effort aimed at addressing security challenges and other headwinds constraining the country’s growth and development.
According to him, the global health crisis since the beginning of this year will make Nigeria to continue to reel from the effects, particularly as policy headroom gets tighter.
“Although the growth data for Q2 2020 is still being awaited from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in-house projections by the CBN indicate that real GDP is expected to contract by -1.03 per cent in Q2 2020 which translates to a reduction of 2.9 percentage points when compared to the actual growth rate of 1.87 per cent obtained in Q1 2020.
“However, the annual real GDP predictions from multiple sources are grimmer for 2020. The World Bank and IMF project that the Nigerian economy will contract by -3.0 per cent and -5.4 per cent, respectively, in 2020, while CBN forecast suggests a possible contraction not exceeding a magnitude of -1.65 per cent in 2020,” the economist said during the MPC meeting, where he voted for the benchmark interest rate to remain at 12.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor at +200/-500 basis points around the MPR, the liquidity ratio at 30.0 per cent and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) left at CRR at 27.5 per cent.
Business Post reports that the stats office is expected to release the Q2 2020 GDP numbers next Monday morning and from various observers, the economy is expected to shrink as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
At the MPC meeting, Mr Isa-Dutse noted that he voted to have all the rates unchanged because it was the reasonable thing to do “to allow enough time for recent initiatives to permeate the economic system.”
According to him, a tightening policy option may dampen inflationary pressures, promote portfolio flows and reserve accretions and it may also constrain credit extension and worsen the pandemic-induced slump in output.
“A loosening stance of monetary policy on the other hand may be considered appropriate in view of the current recessionary quagmire confronting the country.
“However, the economy is already in a loosening mode given the recent policy rate cut in May 2020.
“Moreover, the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus being pumped into the economy has increased liquidity,” he said.
By Dipo Olowookere
The presence of the bulls further strengthened the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Tuesday, as the performance indices further gained 0.19 per cent.
The nation’s stock market survived profit-taking witnessed in the banking sector during the session, which crashed its index by 0.02 per cent.
This loss was offset by the gains recorded by the other sectors, with the insurance segment chalking up 0.49 per cent. The consumer goods space appreciated by 0.47 per cent, the industrial goods counter expanded by 0.04 per cent, and the energy sector rose by 0.03 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was elevated by 475.60 points to 246,659.56 points from 246,183.96 points, and the market capitalisation improved by N307 billion to N159.119 trillion from N158.812 trillion.
The market breadth index was positive yesterday after the bourse finished with 34 price gainers and 22 price losers, implying strong investor sentiment.
UPDC REIT grew by 9.86 per cent to N11.70, Thomas Wyatt advanced by 9.73 per cent to N3.72, Ikeja Hotel climbed 9.53 per cent to N46.55, The Initiates went up by 9.52 per cent to N33.95, and Neimeth increased by 9.47 per cent to N9.25.
Conversely, Mecure depreciated by 9.95 per cent to N76.95, Haldane McCall dropped 9.86 per cent to trade at N3.29, CMFC declined by 9.85 per cent to N3.02, Trans-Nationwide Express lost 9.68 per cent to close at N2.80, and Academy Press shrank by 9.38 per cent to N5.80.
The activity level was mixed during the session, as investors traded 932.5 million equities worth N49.3 billion in 50,059 deals versus the 851.6 million equities valued at N49.6 billion transacted in 56,873 deals a day earlier.
This showed that the trading volume soared by 9.50 per cent, the trading value moderated by 0.61 per cent, and the number of deals retreated by 11.98 per cent.
The busiest equity for the day was Access Holdings, which sold 336.6 million units for N8.7 billion. FCMB exchanged 88.8 million units worth N1.0 billion, First Holdco transacted 72.7 million units valued at N7.7 billion, Zenith Bank traded 37.4 million units for N4.4 billion, and UBA transacted 32.1 million units worth N1.5 billion.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Thirty-one companies on Tuesday emerged as winners of the 2025 licensing round of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The energy firms competed to take control of 50 oil and gas blocks put on offer by the Nigerian government.
They were among the 143 companies that submitted 200 bids for the oil facilities drawn from diverse terrains, including the Niger Delta Onshore, Niger Delta Shallow Water, Niger Delta Deep Offshore, Benin Basin Onshore, Anambra Basin Onshore, Chad Basin Onshore and Benue Trough.
Business Post gathered that investors, however, were only interested in 37 out of the 50 oil blocks put up for sale by the NUPRC. This is the first time in Nigeria’s energy history that frontier basins would attract such a level of investor interest.
The organisations that won the bids include SSonic Petroleum Limited (PPL 2A29), CFP Pipeline and Flowlines (2A30), Dutchford E&P Limited (2A32), Attabanson Global Company Limited (2A33 and PPL 901), Rosem Energy Limited (2A38), Pivot-GIS Limited (2A39), Network E&P (2A40), Asharami (2A41), LexOil (2A42), BVOF (2A43), GupscoEnergy Limited (2A44 and 2A51), Saratoga (2A45), Volante (2A46), Concept-Reel Petroleum Services Limited (2A47 and 2A55), Clinton Oil Field (2A48 and 2A62) and Nuway Oaklane Limited (2A49).
Others are Ramec (2A50), Italia (2A53), Blueridge E&P (2A54), Up Energies Limited (2A56), AYM Shafa (2A57), Blackrock Holdings Limited (2A58), Funtay Integrated Business Limited (2A59), Riparian Development and Production Limited (2A60), Nikstallis (2A61 and PPL 900), Stardeep Petroleum (PPL 2010), Dakoda & U Limited (PPL308 and PPL 800), Southborne Oil and Gas Limited (PPL 902), Lanaka Petroleum (PPL 903) HighbanResources Limited (PPL 700), Eyre Energy Limited (PPL 801).
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose roughly 2 per cent on Tuesday as investors reacted to mounting concerns that escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran and threats by Yemen’s Houthis to blockade Saudi Arabia could disrupt global energy supplies.
Brent futures rose $1.79 or 2.0 per cent to $91.01 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.68 or 2.0 per cent to settle at $84.91 per barrel.
US forces bombed targets in the south and west of Iran while Iran targeted American sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan and at least one tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply concerns resurfaced with the Strait essentially closed again and tanker traffic at multi-month lows, to the level from before the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which appears to be over at the moment.
Prices could go much higher if the renewed conflict drags on for a few more months, as the world has now drained a lot of the buffers that had kept oil surges in check between March and May.
Drained strategic and commercial inventories in many key oil-consuming economies, including the US, are setting the stage for further oil price rallies during the busiest oil demand season.
The just-declared Houthi blockade on Saudi maritime shipping has already begun to witness ill-effects, as reports emerge of two oil tankers having made U-turns while initially en route toward the Suez Canal. It was reported that their crews received threats from Houthi militants in Yemen.
The two oil tankers, which loaded Saudi crude for China and India, made U-turns in the Red Sea and headed toward the Suez following the warning from the militia.
Meanwhile, Kuwait’s power and desalination plants caught fire for a second straight day as US and Iran traded strikes for a tenth day.
As Russia’s war with Ukraine expands beyond Ukraine’s borders, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has stopped receiving oil from Kazakhstan after suspending loadings on Monday due to attacks on oil tankers at its Black Sea terminal.
