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Economy

CEO Confidence Rises Despite New Risks, Uncertainty—PwC

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Worldwide, CEOs’ confidence levels for their growth prospects and outlook for the economy is back on the rise amidst new risks and uncertainty.

In PwC’s 20th annual survey of CEOs worldwide, 38% (2016:35%) are very confident about their company’s growth prospects in the next 12 months while 29% (2016:27%) believe global economic growth will pick up in 2017.

Just over one-third (33%) of South African CEOs are very confident of their company’s own growth in the next 12 months, 4 points down on last year, and 5 points below this year’s global average (38%). Furthermore, only 19% expect global economic growth to improve in the next 12 months, 10 points below the global average.

Commenting on the survey results, Dion Shango, CEO of PwC Southern Africa, says: “Despite significant challenges in 2016, CEO confidence is on the rise – albeit slowly and still has some way to go from the levels that we saw back in 2007. Across the globe, there are signs of optimism despite mixed views on how the global economy will respond to the recent US presidential election result as well as the outcome of the UK Brexit vote.”

The global survey results, based on interviews with 1379 CEOs from 79 countries, were released at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos yesterday. In South Africa 36 CEOs from a broad spectrum of listed and privately-owned companies participated in our survey.

“It is positive to note that local CEOs expect to increase their headcount in the next 12 months. CEOs are promoting talent diversity and inclusiveness; they have implemented strategies to reflect the skills and employment structures needed for the future,” Shango comments.

PwC’s annual 20th Global CEO Survey explores what CEOs in 2017 think about three imperatives: a people and technology strategy that is fit for the digital age, preserving trust in a world of increasingly virtual interactions, and making globalisation work for everyone by engaging even more with society and collaborating to find solutions.

“The challenge to all three imperatives is leadership. How leaders engage with employees and stakeholders has never been more important. A company’s strategy must be built upon a long-term vision of growth, access, equality, innovation, and the human endeavour,” adds Shango.

Where CEOs will look for growth

PwC’s first global survey (1997) showed emerging markets – including China and India as a sure bet for success. But the changeability of markets, exacerbated by current volatility, has caused CEOs to turn to a greater mix of countries. This year’s survey shows the US, Germany and the UK have become bigger priorities, while enthusiasm for investing in Brazil, India, Russia and Argentina has lessened from three years ago.

South African CEOs named China (36%), the UK (31%), the US (25%) and India (22%) as the most important countries for their organisation’s overall growth prospects.

New York (8%), Tokyo (8%) and London (19%) were also identified as the most important cities to an organisation’s overall growth prospects over the next 12 months.

Threats

While 91% of South African CEOs are very confident of their company growth over the next three years, their levels of concern about exchange rate volatility (92%), uncertain economic growth (92%), overregulation (89%), social instability (89%), and geopolitical uncertainty (83%) remain very high.

Of business threats, 89% (compared to 77% globally) of South African CEOs cited the availability of key skills, 69% (compared to 49% globally) cited volatile energy costs, 67% (compared to 61% globally) cited cyber threats, and 64% (compared to 70% globally) stated the speed of technological change as concerns.

Driving corporate growth

This year, 83% of South African CEOs (compared to 79% globally) plan to expand by way of organic growth in the next 12 months. Sixty-nine percent of local CEOs (compared to 62% globally) plan to implement a cost-reduction initiative. In addition, 61% of CEOs (compared to 48% globally) plan to enter into a new strategic alliance or joint venture, and 53% (compared to only 41% globally) propose a new M&A.

Technology and Trust

CEOs say that technology is now inseparable from a business’ reputation, skills and recruitment, competition and growth.  Sixty-one percent of South African CEOs say technology has either completely reshaped or had a significant impact on competition in their industry. Furthermore, 75% say it will have a major impact in the next five years.

Twenty years ago, trust wasn’t high on the business agenda for CEOs. This year, 58% of CEOs globally worry that a lack of trust in business will harm their company’s growth, up from 37% in 2013. After several high-profile technology and security issues for big companies, CEOs identified cyber security, data privacy breaches and IT disruptions as the top three technology threats to stakeholder trust. More than half of South African CEOs (58%) cited risks from the use of social media, 53% cited breaches of data privacy and ethics, and 50% cited cyber security breaches as concerns.

Headcount and talent

Concern about skills has more than doubled in 20 years (from 31% concerned in 1998 to 77% in 2017) and human capital is a top three business priority, with diversity and inclusiveness and workforce mobility amongst the strategies being used to address future skill needs. Skills availability is a concern for over three quarters (77%) of business leaders, and is highest for CEOs in Africa (80%), and Asia Pacific (82%).

More than half of South African CEOs (58%) expect to increase their headcount in the next 12 months, with 14% planning to cut their workforce.

Impact of globalisation

More than half of CEOs (58%) globally think it has become harder to balance globalisation with rising trends in protectionism. For the past 20 years CEOs have largely been positive about the contribution of globalisation to the free movement of capital, goods and people. However, this year’s survey respondents are sceptical that it has mitigated climate change or helped create full and meaningful employment to close the gap between rich and poor.

Seventy-two percent of South African CEOs (compared to 62% globally) said globalisation had to a large extent helped with universal connectivity, and 44% (compared to 60% globally) said it had helped with improving the ease of moving capital, people, goods and information.

Concludes Shango: “Looking forward, CEOs will require a different set of skills. The events of the past year have shown us just how interconnected the interests of shareholders and other stakeholders really are. Those businesses that articulate their purpose, anticipate risks and adhere to the value they profess will thrive. Businesses that ignore the power of the people will jeopardise the growth they seek.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

NECA, CPPE Laud CBN’s 0.50% Interest Rate Cut

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CBN - Yemi Cardoso

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) have separately commended the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

In reaction, NECA Director-General, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, praised the decision in a statement, noting that the 50 basis-point cut is “a cautious but noteworthy signal” that authorities were responding to sustained pressures on businesses.

He said the marginal reduction might not immediately lower lending rates, but reflected “a gradual shift toward supporting growth without undermining price stability”.

According to him, the overall stance remained tight, with the Cash Reserve Ratio retained at 45 per cent and the liquidity ratio at 30 per cent.

He added that the asymmetric corridor around the MPR was also maintained, reinforcing a cautious monetary approach.

“With a substantial portion of deposits still sterilised, banks’ capacity to expand credit to the real sector may remain constrained in the near term,” he said.

Mr Oyerinde described the move as “a careful balancing act” aimed at moderating inflation without worsening pressures on businesses.

He noted that firms continued to grapple with high operating costs, exchange rate volatility and weakened consumer demand.

“Inflation, particularly in food, energy and transportation, remains a significant challenge to employers and households,” he said.

He stressed that the modest easing must be supported by coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to address supply-side constraints.

Such reforms, he said, should improve infrastructure and enhance productivity across key sectors of the economy.

Mr Oyerinde urged financial institutions to ensure the MPR reduction was gradually reflected in lending conditions for manufacturers and SMEs.

He affirmed that although the MPC had not fully relaxed its tightening stance, the rate cut signalled cautious optimism.

“Sustained improvements in inflation, exchange rate stability and investor confidence will determine scope for further easing that supports growth and employment,” he said.

On its part, the CPPE said the decision reflected improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a cautious shift from aggressive tightening.

The organisation noted that sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, an improved trade balance and relative exchange-rate stability had created room for monetary easing.

It said the rate cut could boost investor confidence and support private-sector growth, but cautioned that weak monetary transmission might limit its impact on lending rates.

The CPPE identified high cash reserve requirements, elevated lending rates, government borrowing and structural banking costs as major constraints to effective transmission.

The group also stressed the need for fiscal consolidation, citing high public debt, persistent deficits and rising debt-service obligations as risks to macroeconomic stability.

According to the chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, effective policy coordination and stronger transmission mechanisms were critical to unlocking investment and sustaining growth, lauding the CBN for what he described as a measured and data-driven policy adjustment.

The CPPE boss noted that the easing reflected strengthening macroeconomic performance, declining inflation, growing reserves, improved trade balance and enhanced foreign exchange stability.

Mr Yusuf added that for the benefits of monetary easing to be fully realised, authorities must strengthen transmission to ensure lower lending rates for the real sector and advance credible fiscal consolidation to safeguard stability.

He said that if supported by structural reforms and disciplined fiscal management, the current policy direction could unlock a stronger investment cycle and more durable economic growth.

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Economy

NASD Index Falls 0.28% as Investors Lose N6.64bn

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NASD Unlisted Securities Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended the negative start to the week by 0.28 per cent on Tuesday, February 24, with the market capitalisation down by N6.64 billion to close at N2.378 trillion versus Monday’s N2.384 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) falling by 11.1 points to 3,974.80 points from 3,985.90 points.

At the session, transaction value skyrocketed by 1,706.3 per cent to N1.2 billion from the previous day’s N61.8 million, as the transaction volume increased by 59.1 per cent to 11.6 million units from 7.3 million units, and the number of deals expanded by 23.1 per cent to 48 deals from the preceding session’s 39 deals.

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 33.7 million units exchanged for N2.0 billion, Okitipupa Plc was next with 6.2 million units traded for N1.1 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc occupied the third position with 121.0 million units valued at N474.9 million.

Resourcery Plc emerged as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.05 billion units worth N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with the sale of 121.0 million units for N474.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 33.7 million units worth N2.0 billion.

Yesterday, the market breadth was flat after the bourse finished with three price gainers and three price losers led by MRS Oil Plc, which shed N14.50 to close at N200.00 per share versus the previous day’s N214.50 per share, CSCS Plc depleted by N1.39 to N65.82 per unit from N67.21 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc depreciated by 1 Kobo to close at N3.30 per share versus Monday’s N3.31 per share.

The price gainers were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which improved its value by N1.60 to close at N95.00 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N93.40 per unit, Afriland Property Plc gained 83 Kobo to sell at N18.00 per share versus N17.17 per share, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc advanced by 13 Kobo to N1.45 per unit from N1.32 per unit.

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Economy

Nigerian Exchange Sheds 0.92%

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Nigerian Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited depreciated by 0.92 per cent on Tuesday after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) slashed the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 per cent to 26.50 per cent at the end of its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2026.

Sell-offs mainly occurred in the consumer goods and insurance sectors, shedding 4.74 per cent and 1.31 per cent, respectively.

However, bargain-hunting remained in the others, with the industrial goods index gaining 1.92 per cent, the banking counter grew by 1.23 per cent, and the energy sector soared by 0.15 per cent.

When the bourse ended for the session, the All-Share Index (ASI) gave up 1,779.03 points to close at 194,484.52 points compared with the previous day’s 196,263.55 points, and the market capitalisation declined by N1.142 trillion to N124.827 trillion from N125.969 trillion.

DAAR Communications depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N2.25, Tantalizers also declined by 10.00 per cent to N4.86, BUA Foods shrank by 9.99 per cent to N760.60, Ellah Lakes slumped 9.96 per cent to N10.40, and Japaul lost 9.95 per cent to trade at N3.80.

Conversely, Jaiz Bank appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N12.76, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank went up by 9.83 per cent to N19.00, FCMB gained 9.72 per cent to close at N13.55, Fortis Global Insurance chalked up 9.09 per cent to finish at 72 Kobo, and Sterling Holdco grew by 7.50 per cent to N8.60.

A total of 27 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart and 40 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

Yesterday, investors bought and sold 1.1 billion equities worth N53.4 billion in 72,218 deals compared with the 1.3 billion equities valued at N31.5 billion in 95,091 deals recorded a day earlier.

This showed that the value of transactions went up by 69.52 per cent, the volume of trades declined by 15.39 per cent, and a slip in the number of deals by 24.05 per cent.

During the session, Japaul was the most active stock with 102.4 million units worth N399.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 97.9 million units valued at N2.6 billion, Fortis Global Insurance traded 75.2 million units for N54.1 million, Zenith Bank sold 67.6 million units valued at N6.2 billion, and FCMB transacted 46.4 million units worth N612.2 million.

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