Economy
China’s Disappointing Stimulus, Expected Supply Boost Shrink Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell by more than 2 per cent on Monday, with Brent crude futures losing $2.04 or 2.76 per cent to trade at $71.83 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures down by $2.34 or 3.32 per cent to $68.04 a barrel.
This happened after the market overlooked China’s latest stimulus plan while supply looked set to rise in 2025.
The market was not impressed with China after it unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilise flagging economic growth.
This disappointed investors who were seeking demand growth in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer.
Also, consumer prices in China rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened.
Market analysts noted that Chinese economic momentum remains negative and could be worse with US President-elect Donald Trump possibly implementing tariffs up to 60 per cent on imported goods from the country.
The tariffs will further shrink profits, hurting jobs, investment and growth in the process and would also worsen China’s industrial overcapacity and the deflationary pressures it fuels.
Mr Trump’s US election victory also continues to affect the market, lending support to the US Dollar.
A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the US currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies, and it tends to weigh on prices.
Expectations of an increase in oil supply from producers that do not belong to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+ also pressured the market.
Bank of America Securities said in a note on Monday that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2026.
“Meaningful non-OPEC growth next year and an unconvincing Chinese stimulus package likely mean inventories will swell even without OPEC+ increases,” Bank of America noted.
In late September, OPEC+ said it would boost supply in December by 180,000 barrels per day but earlier this month an agreement was reached among the member and allied countries to postpone the supply expansion until January.
Meanwhile, the US offshore production regulator said 25.7 per cent of crude oil production and 13 per cent of natural gas output remained shut because of Hurricane Rafael.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited recorded its first loss in nine consecutive sessions after it finished in the red territory on Friday by 0.12 per cent.
This decline suffered by Customs Street was caused by profit-taking in the industrial goods sectors, which tumbled by 0.31 per cent at the close of trading activities.
It upturned the gains recorded by the other sectors, as the banking space grew by 1.66 per cent, the insurance counter expanded by 1.05 per cent, the consumer goods index appreciated by 1.03 per cent, and the energy sector gained 0.31 per cent.
When the market ended for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 118.93 points to 101,129.09 points from 101,248.02 points and the market capitalisation shrank by N72 billion to N61.303 trillion from N61.375 trillion it ended a day earlier.
Despite the poor performance, investor sentiment was bullish as the bourse finished with 39 price gainers and 15 price losers, representing a positive market breadth index.
Multiverse lost 9.80 per cent to trade at N4.60, Aradel Holdings tumbled by 9.09 per cent to N664.00, International Energy Insurance slumped by 8.13 per cent to N1.47, Coronation Insurance declined by 4.49 per cent to N1.70, and Nigerian Breweries moderated by 3.33 per cent to N29.00.
On the flip side, UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to close at N30.25, Honeywell Flour also increased by 10.00 per cent to N6.05, Universal Insurance jumped by 10.00 per cent to 44 Kobo, Learn Africa rose by 9.92 per cent to N3.88, and NAHCO improved by 9.89 per cent to N46.10.
During the session, investors transacted 515.6 million shares valued at N16.5 billion in 11,554 deals compared with the previous day’s 411.4 million shares worth N26.3 billion traded in 10,260 deals a day earlier, indicating a decline in the trading value by 37.26 per cent, and growth in the trading volume and number of deals by 25.33 per cent and 12.61 per cent, respectively.
Zenith Bank was the most traded stock for the session with 60.4 million units valued at N2.7 billion, UBA exchanged 43.5 million units worth N1.5 billion, Sterling Holdings sold 43.3 million units for N216.3 million, Universal Insurance transacted 28.3 million units valued at N12.4 million, and GTCO traded 23.5 million units worth N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange grew by 0.87 per cent on Friday, December 20, spurred by Okitipupa Plc and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc.
During the session, the market capitalisation of the trading platform added N8.98 billion to settle at N1.043 trillion compared with the preceding day’s value of N1.034 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) ended the day at 3,043.27 points after adding 26.20 points to the previous day’s closing value of 3,017.07 points.
Yesterday, the price of Okitipupa Plc went up by N2.98 to close at N32.72 per unit compared with Thursday’s closing price of N29.74 per unit and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc increased by N3.84 to wrap the session at N43.84 per share versus the preceding day’s N40.00 per share.
Business Post reports that the volume of securities traded at the bourse by investors on the last trading day of the week went up by 182.1 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 419,682 units recorded a day earlier.
In the same vein, the value of shares traded yesterday increased by 2,089.4 per cent to N51.2 million from the N2.3 million achieved in the preceding session, and the number of deals went down by 45.5 per cent to 12 deals from the 22 deals carried out in the previous session.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with a turnover of 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc occupied the second spot with 752.3 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in the third position with the sale of 297.7 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with the sale of 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.3 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third with 297.7 million units sold for N5.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira suffered a marginal decline against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, December 20 by 0.02 per cent or 30 Kobo to settle at N1,541.68/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,541.38/$1.
This marginal slide came as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) moved to alleviate some pressure by allowing Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators to access the official market for a period of 50 days.
The CBN in a notice on Friday said BDC operators would have access to FX at the official market from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025, with a weekly cap of $25,000, with transactions requiring upfront funding at prevailing rates and must follow a maximum of 1 per cent spread.
This development trails the launch of the CBN-backed Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) which began operations earlier this month and has led to a rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system is expected to instantly reflect data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN, giving traders real-time prices and buy-sell orders data.
But against the British Pound Sterling, the domestic currency appreciated yesterday by N6.46 to trade at N1,929.77/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,936.23/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency depreciated by N60.21 to quote at N1,597.64/€1 versus N1,537.43/€1.
In the parallel market, the Naira maintained stability against the greenback during the trading session at N1,650/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was bullish on Friday after a hawkish tone in this week’s FOMC meeting flipped market sentiment ahead of the new year.
The positive outcome came as inflation slowed in the US and offered respite to the market, with Cardano (ADA) growing by 9.3 per cent to trade at $0.9825, as Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 8.2 per cent to sell at $0.3463, and Ethereum (ETH) gained 4.1 per cent to settle at $3,535.49.
Further, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 3.9 per cent to $104.94, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.3 per cent to $199.76, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.2 per cent to $690.84, Ripple (XRP) surged by 1.9 per cent to $2.36, and Bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $98,654.80, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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