Economy
CPPE Forecasts 4.5% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has forecast that Nigeria’s economy may grow as much as 4.5 per cent in 2026 following major gains in macroeconomic stability in 2025, which could pave way for stronger growth.
The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, disclosed this in a statement while presenting the organisation’s review of the economy in 2025 as well as its outlook for 2026.
He noted that the country recorded gains especially in exchange rate management inflation and business confidence this year, adding that 2025 provided a strong foundation of stability and with sustained reforms and improved security, 2026 could witness more robust growth and better living standards.
According to him, the most notable achievement in 2025 was the stability of the Naira which traded largely between N1,440 and N1,500 to the Dollar.
He said that this stability boosted business confidence, reduced imported inflation, and made pricing and investment planning more predictable.
He added that inflation also dropped sharply from 24.48 per cent in January, to about 14.45 per cent in November, strengthened by improved supply conditions and reduced logistics pressures.
According to him, prices of many food items and imported goods fell during the year, leading to improved consumer sentiment.
Mr Yusuf said that business confidence also strengthened throughout the year, adding that, many companies which recorded losses in 2024 returned to profitability in 2025.
On fiscal performance he said that federal government revenues fell short because of lower than expected oil prices and weak oil production.
He added that the 2025 budget was based on assumptions that did not materialise, including oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, and an oil price of 75 dollars per barrel.
Mr Yusuf said that actual production averaged 1.66 million barrels, while prices hovered around $66. According to him, this led to a significant shortfall from the projected 41 trillion naira revenue target, and weakened capital expenditure performance.
He, however, disclosed that many states performed better, with stronger internally generated revenue, improved liquidity and better project execution.
Reviewing sectoral performances, he said that the service sector remained the strongest driver of growth, accounting for 53 per cent of GDP by the third quarter of the year.
“Telecommunications finance construction real estate and trade led the expansion,” he said
He said that the non oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent and contributed over 96 per cent of GDP.
According to him, manufacturing remained weak, contributing only 7.62 per cent to GDP and growing by 1.25 per cent due to power shortages high logistics costs unfair import competition and rising operating expenses.
Mr Yusuf noted that Agriculture recorded a modest recovery, growing by 3.79 per cent though insecurity while low productivity remained major obstacles.
Looking ahead, the CEO said that rhe outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism.
He projected a GDP growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent, supported by lower inflation stronger consumer demand and possible monetary easing.
He said that services would continue to drive growth while capital markets could receive a major boost from a potential listing of the Dangote Refinery.
Meanwhile, he warned of risks factors, including; insecurity, oil price and production volatility, high operating costs, fiscal pressures, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties.
Mr Yusuf noted that growing resistance to tax reforms could also affect revenue projections.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange lost its gaining streak on Wednesday, July 22, after it fell by 0.24 per cent despite the presence of five price gainers.
Yesterday, the market capitalisation went down by N6.32 billion to N2.631 trillion from the previous session’s N2.637 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) depreciated by 10.49 points to 4,383.48 points from 4,393.97 points.
The poor outcome was caused by the losses recorded by two securities, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which lost N5.60 to settle at N147.55 per unit compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N153.15 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which tumbled by N1.01 to N98.32 per share from N99.33 per share.
On the flip side, Nipco Plc added N38.00 to sell at N422.00 per unit versus N384.00 per share, Afriland Properties Plc gained 75 Kobo to close at N15.76 per share versus N15.01 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc improved by 23 Kobo to N2.53 per unit from N2.30 per unit, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share, and Food Concepts Plc increased by 1 Kobo to N2.49 per unit from N2.48 per unit.
At midweek, the volume of securities surged by 3,438.9 per cent to 11.4 million units from 322,147 units, the value of securities rose by 122.2 per cent to N43.1 million from N19.4 million, and the number of deals jumped by 81.5 per cent to 49 deals from 27 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 75.4 million units exchanged for N5.4 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The domestic stock exchange slipped into the negative territory on Wednesday by 0.50 per cent after the consumer goods sector closed lower by 5.04 per cent despite the gains recorded by the other key sectors.
The insurance index shed 1.64 per cent, the banking space gained 1.51 per cent, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.81 per cent, while the energy counter closed flat.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation declined by N800 billion to N158.319 trillion from N159.119 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) shrank by 1,241.19 points to 245,418.37 points from 246,659.56 points.
The duo of BUA Foods and Nestle Nigeria crumbled by 10.00 per cent each to N845.10 and N2,812.50, respectively. Mecure lost 9.94 per cent to trade at N69.30, International Energy Insurance slumped by 9.84 per cent to N4.40, and UAC Nigeria dipped by 7.75 per cent to N184.45.
On the flip side, the trio of Unilever Nigeria, Trans-Nationwide Express, and Cadbury Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent each to quote at N137.50, N3.08, and N137.50, respectively. Thomas Wyatt moved up by 9.95 per cent to 4.09, and UPDC REIT jumped by 9.40 per cent to N12.80.
A total of 37 stocks ended on the advancers’ chart and 28 stocks finished on the laggards’ log, indicating a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
Market participants transacted 1.3 billion shares worth N158.3 billion in 47,458 deals at midweek, in contrast to the 932.5 million shares valued at N49.3 billion traded in 50,059 deals in the preceding day. This implied that the number of deals declined by 5.20 per cent, while the trading volume and value increased by 39.41 per cent and 221.10 per cent, respectively.
First Holdco led the activity chart, with a turnover of 736.0 million units valued at N80.8 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 79.6 million units for N2.1 billion, GTCO transacted 34.1 million units worth N4.4 billion, Mutual Benefits sold 24.4 million units valued at N85.3 million, and Zenith Bank traded 21.5 million units for N2.6 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further appreciated against the United States Dollar by N5.68 or 0.41 per cent to N1,369.63/$1 on Wednesday, July 22, from the preceding session’s N1,375.31/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX).
Similarly, the Nigerian currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N8.01 to trade at N1,833.12/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,841.13/£1, and against the Euro, it gained N4.75 to sell at N1,563.03/€1, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1,567.78/€1.
In the same vein, the Naira strengthened its rate against the US Dollar in the black market yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,400/$1 compared with the N1,405/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank FX desk, it chalked up N5 against the greenback to settle at N1,383/$1 versus N1,388/$1.
FX liquidity was boosted by inflows from foreign portfolio investors, exporters and non-bank corporates. The significant liquidity and strong investor sentiment aided the naira recovery from the recent slump.
As a result, total turnover settled at $416.420 million on Wednesday, up by 29 per cent from $322.664 million recorded the previous day.
The number of deals counted at the NAFEM window also increased to 198 from 110 on Tuesday, signalling higher demand for foreign payments matched adequate FX inflows.
With more than $52 billion in gross external reserves, analysts said the FX market is expected to remain stable in the near term.
As for the digital currency market, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.4 per cent to $65,658.75 as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields pressured risk assets and weighed on major cryptocurrencies, which later saw some recovery.
Market sentiment was further dampened by an apparent escalation in US military strikes linked to Iran, while traders also looked at regulatory uncertainty as key US Senate Democrats criticised the latest draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which is designed to define and separate regulatory oversight for cryptocurrency, stablecoins, and digital commodities.
Dogecoin (DOGE) crashed by 0.1 per cent to $0.0724, and TRON (TRX) dropped 0.01 per cent to trade at $0.3287, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
However, Cardano (ADA) rose by 1.6 per cent to $0.1741, Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.2 per cent to close at $1,921.85, Binance Coin (BNB) also grew by 0.2 per cent to $569.38, Ripple (XRP) increased by 0.1 per cent to $1.13, and Solana (SOL) soared by 0.02 per cent to $77.50.
