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Economy

Crude Oil Market Declines on Supply Risks Ease

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The crude oil market closed lower on Friday, extending pressures from the week due to easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025.

Brent crude depreciated by 34 cents or 0.46 per cent yesterday to settle at $72.94 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contracted by 72 cents or 1.05 per cent to $68.00 per barrel.

For the week, Brent declined by 3.1 per cent while WTI lost 4.8 per cent as trading activity was muted because of the US Thanksgiving public holiday.

Worries about the ceasefire continued to impact the market with Israeli tanks entering a Lebanese border village.

The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday reduced oil’s risk premium, sending prices lower despite accusations of violations by both sides.

However, the Middle East conflict has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more ample in 2025.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees the prospect of more than 1 million barrels per day of excess supply, equal to more than 1 per cent of global output.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, postponed its next meeting on output policy to December 5 from December 1.

The group said moving the date would avoid a clash with a summit of Gulf Arab countries which is due to be held in Kuwait City on December 1 which several OPEC+ ministers plan to attend.

Prior to this development, OPEC+ was discussing postponing its oil output hike due to start in January for the first quarter of 2025.

Top OPEC+ ministers have held talks ahead of the meeting. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, de facto head of OPEC, on Wednesday had a phone call with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev while in Kazakhstan on an official visit.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia held talks in Baghdad on Tuesday.

Market analysts warned that the group has to consider the risk of further price weakness amid expectations for robust production from non-OPEC+ producers next year could lead to a crude surplus.

Others also worry that the incoming Donald Trump administration could have a high influence on decision-making.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Strengthens to N1,379/1$ at Official Market

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currency in circulation eNaira

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar by N3.95 0r 0.29 per cent to exchange at N1,379.68/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 30, compared with the previous day’s N1,383.63/$1.

The positive movement was also seen against the Pound Sterling at the same official market window, where it gained N6.59 to trade at N1,825.05/£1 versus the preceding day’s N1,831.64/£1, and improved against the Euro by N5.05 to sell for N1,572.98/€1 compared with Monday’s price of N1,578.03/€1.

At the GTBank FX counter, the Nigerian Naira, however, lost N2 against the Dollar yesterday to quote at N1,389/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,387/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1,

A look at the cryptocurrency market yesterday showed that Bitcoin (BTC) depleted for the fifth straight day, selling at $58,668.93. This sits below the levels that sparked rebounds in February and earlier in June, as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Dogecoin (DOGE) crashed by 1.5 per cent to sell at $0.0713, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.4 per cent to close at $544.98, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 1.0 per cent to $1,574.60, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.8 per cent to $0.3164, and Ripple (XRP) dropped 0.8 per cent to finish at $1.03.

Conversely, Cardano (ADA) grew by 2.9 per cent to $0.1493, and Solana (SOL) increased by 0.3 per cent to $74.19, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Oil Market Gains as Iran-US Negotiations Face Fresh Uncertainty

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market rose on Wednesday morning amid concerns that breakdowns in ‌discussions between Iran and the United States for a final agreement to end their war may extend supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent futures gained 33 cents or 0.45 per cent to trade at $73.28 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ​climbed 34 cents or 0.49 per cent to $69.84 a barrel.

US officials arrived in Qatar for talks on the Iran war, but will meet with mediators, not Iranian negotiators. The lack of direct talks further complicates efforts to find a lasting end to the conflict and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The representatives, which include US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, arrived in ​Doha for what the White House described as “high-level” talks on Tuesday, but Iran and host Qatar said they would meet with mediators, rather than the Iranians themselves.

The Wall Street Journal reported that while hardline military officials are pushing for full control of Hormuz, Iranian civilian leaders like President Masoud Pezeshkian are aiming to get access to billions in frozen assets, indicating different priorities.

Brent fell by around $45 a barrel between the first and second quarters of this year, its largest quarterly ​loss since 2008 during the financial crisis in the US. Crude futures meanwhile fell by around $31, their largest quarterly loss since 2020, when ‌the COVID-19 ⁠pandemic crushed global oil demand.

The declines followed progress toward ending the Middle East conflict, pulling back from the sharp gains triggered earlier by the hostilities.

Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts after five straight monthly increases, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over ​prolonged supply disruptions.

Tanker traffic ​through the ⁠critical waterway has started to recover, with US Vice President JD Vance claiming that oil flows through the strait had been restored to pre-war levels.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 6.072 million barrels in the week ending June 26. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 765,000 barrels.

Official oil stock data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)will be released later on Wednesday.

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Economy

Nigeria’s FTSE Russell Frontier Market Status Upgrade Suffers Setback

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FTSE Russell Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The planned reclassification of Nigeria’s Frontier Market status by FTSE Russell has suffered a major setback.

This is because the global index provider is reviewing this after the country transitioned into a T+1 settlement cycle on June 1, 2026, from a T+2 settlement cycle.

Last month, Nigeria became the first market in Africa to implement the shortened settlement framework designed to enhance efficiency, reduce risk, and improve global competitiveness.

The move, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), was to align the ecosystem with global best practices, where shorter settlement cycles are increasingly being adopted to improve post-trade efficiency, reduce counterparty risk, and strengthen investor confidence, reaffirming regulators’ commitment to continued modernisation of market systems and processes.

The Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, had enthused that, “The era of T+1 has begun. In just six months, Nigeria has successfully progressed from T+2 to T+1 settlement, joining a growing group of markets embracing faster and more efficient settlement cycles.

“This achievement signals that Nigeria is prepared to undertake the structural reforms required to compete for global capital.”

However, FTSE Russell seems not to buy into this development, as it raised concerns about it, pointing out that the shorter settlement period could effectively make the Nigerian market a prefunded market for international institutional investors, requiring them to provide funds before trades are completed.

It argued that compulsory pre-funding is considered a disadvantage under its Settlement Cycle (Delivery versus Payment) criterion, one of the five key Quality of Markets standards that countries must satisfy to qualify for Frontier Market status under its Equity Country Classification framework.

The platform said it would conduct a further assessment before taking a final decision on the proposed reclassification and would provide an update by the end of August 2026.

Nigeria was upgraded from Unclassified to Frontier Market status in March 2026, with the change initially scheduled to take effect in September.

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