Economy
Crude Oil Prices Down as Oversupply Concerns Outweigh Geopolitical Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices were lower on Monday as concerns of an oversupply outweighed geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East, with Brent crude shedding 11 cents or 0.2 per cent to close at $66.57 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude down by 4 cents or 0.1 per cent to settle at $62.64 a barrel.
Market analysts said traders are focusing on a possibly oversupplied global oil market that is soon to come, but said this could be avoided if the US and the European Union (EU) can agree on harsher tariffs on countries that purchase Russian crude.
Also, Iraq, the second largest producer among the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has increased oil exports under an OPEC+ agreement. It also expects September’s exports to range from 3.4 million to 3.45 million barrels per day.
Iraq has also given preliminary approval to a plan to resume pipeline oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey.
Kuwait’s crude oil production capacity stands at 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest assessment in more than 10 years, according to its Oil Minister, Mr Tariq Al-Roumi. Despite the increased production capacity, Kuwait continues to abide by the OPEC+ agreements and will pump 2.559 million barrels per day from October, he added.
Earlier this year, Kuwait said it plans to invest as much as $50 billion to raise its oil production capacity to above 3 million barrels per day over the next five years.
There was also doubt on the need for further rate cuts at a time when inflation in the US remains above the central bank’s 2 per cent target and the job market remains near full employment. Lower borrowing costs typically boost oil demand.
Tensions rose in the Middle East over several Western nations recognising a Palestinian state. Countries including Britain, Canada, France, Australia and Portugal have recognised a Palestinian state in a move borne out of frustration over the Gaza war and intended to promote a two-state solution, prompting a furious response from Israel.
Tension also mounted in Eastern Europe after Estonia said Russian fighter jets had entered its airspace without permission on Friday. However, none of these developments resulted in an immediate oil supply disruption.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Nigerian private sector in July 2026 contracted to 52.5 points from 53.4 points in June 2026, a statement made available to Business Post has shown.
This occurred despite the business environment sustaining its growth last month, with an increase in new orders experienced, as inflationary pressures softened, and output and employment modestly rising.
The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said the PMI indicated that the private sector recorded its slowest since March 2026, as businesses also increased their input purchasing activity to keep up with current demand requirements and prepare for future workloads.
“Nigerian businesses reported improved customer demand in July while better pricing and new product launches also helped them to capture new orders arising from the increase in demand. These factors helped to keep the private sector activity in an expansionary territory, although this moderated when compared to June,” he was quoted as saying.
It was stated that while input costs increased at their slowest pace in five months, panellists reported higher costs for fuel and raw materials. Selling prices also softened in line with the picture for input costs in July.
Headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91 per cent y/y in June from 15.93 per cent y/y in May, snapping three consecutive months of price increases.
Although July inflation is likely to be higher m/m, it is expected to print lower, likely at 15.72 per cent y/y, primarily driven by favourable base effects from the corresponding period of last year, because there are no expectations of the magnitude of m/m inflation witnessed in July 2025 (1.99 per cent) to materialise this year.
“We retain our 2026 growth forecasts at 4.1 per cent as we see the oil sector growing by 3.45 per cent y/y in 2026, from 8.50 per cent y/y in 2025, while the non-oil sector is likely to grow by 4.11 per cent y/y, from 3.71 per cent y/y in 2025.
“The risks to our outlook include country-wide insecurity which may constrain food production, exchange rate pressures resurfacing, extreme-weather related conditions and higher fertiliser prices impacting crop yield, and a volatile global environment which may affect sentiment and constrain capital flows,” Mr Oni noted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Sahara Upstream, a Nigeria-focused crude producer, has deployed a new 380,000-barrel tanker to boost exports from the OML 18 block as part of a wider push by domestic operators to invest in infrastructure and lift output and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.
The MT D Adesanya, which can hold more than 62,000 cubic metres of crude, will operate alongside the MT D Bayero, receiving crude from shuttle vessels at Bonny Anchorage, one of Nigeria’s main crude export hubs, before transferring it to the FSO Cawthorne storage facility.
Sahara said the tanker would help cut turnaround times, currently about 30 to 48 hours, and support a planned 50 per cent increase in exports from the block’s current level of about 950,000 barrels per month.
The block currently produces about 36,000 barrels per day, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), with Sahara targeting output of 60,000 barrels per day.
OML 18 is one of the Niger Delta’s oldest producing assets. It began production in 1970 and contains an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves.
Shell, Total and Eni sold their combined interests to Eroton in 2015 as part of a broader shift toward domestic ownership in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
This development comes as Sahara Upstream is deepening its exploration and production footprint through Asharami Energy Limited (AEL), its upstream E&P business, which says it is targeting 350,000 barrels of oil per day by 2030 through its subsidiary, Enageed Resources Limited (ERL).
The growth target comes as AEL also marks a major safety milestone, achieving 6 million Lost Time Injury (LTI)-free man-hours in its OML-148 operations — reinforcing the company’s commitment to operational excellence and safety leadership.
According to Asharami Energy, the milestone reflects its ability to execute complex operations safely, in line with Sahara’s Beyond XXX vision, which builds on the group’s 30-year legacy of responsible enterprise while marking its next chapter of impact, innovation, and sustainable growth.
The developments position Sahara Upstream and its subsidiaries among the domestic operators driving increased investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure, as the group works to scale up production and exports for Africa’s biggest oil producer.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading energy firms in Nigeria, Aradel Holdings Plc, has expressed its desire to optimise its enlarged portfolio and improve operational efficiency in the second half of 2026.
The company is planning to build on the success it recorded in the first half of the year, where it grew its revenue by 577 per cent to N2.5 trillion from N368.1 billion in H1 2025.
The significant rise in earnings was driven by higher production volumes together with stronger realised crude oil and gas prices, with the average at $90.4/bbl and $2.08/mmscf, respectively.
In the period under review, the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) increased by 688 per cent to N1.4 trillion from N176.4 billion in the corresponding period of last year, while the operating profit surged by 789 per cent to N1.1 trillion from N118.6 billion due to higher revenue and crude handling income at N149.8 billion, partly offset by underlift cost and general and administrative costs.
The net cash generated from operations was N975.6 billion between January and June 2026 versus N140.8 billion in the same period of 2025, reflecting the cash generation of the enlarged organisation.
The net debt contracted by 70 per cent on a year-to-date basis to N46.5 billion from N475.1 billion as of December 31, 2025.
Aradel, in the period under consideration, improved its post-tax profit by 30 per cent to N191.0 billion from N146.4 billion, a development that impressed its chief executive, Mr Adegbite Falade, who said, “A firmer price environment supported performance, generating net cash from operating activities of N975.6 billion and a closing cash balance of N1.7 trillion.”
“Our enlarged portfolio provides more opportunities to generate stronger cash flow and returns for shareholders and unlocking that potential is our main focus.
“We reaffirm our full year production guidance of 110 – 140 kboepd and remain committed to operating responsibly in a changing energy landscape and to delivering lasting value for our stakeholders,” he stated.
