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Crude Oil Prices Rise Despite Growing Supply Worries

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crude oil prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices closed stronger on Monday despite predictions that rising supply will outweigh demand in the months ahead, while hopes of progress in ending a government shutdown in the United States raised investors’ risk appetite.

Brent crude futures increased by 26 cents or 0.4 per cent to trade at $63.89 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 23 cents or 0.4 per cent to finish at $59.98 a barrel.

The market keeps looking at expectations that crude oil supply will exceed demand in the months ahead due to higher production from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and record US output.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase output slightly by 137,000 barrels per day in December.

Market analysts noted that while the group also paused further hikes in the first quarter, that may not limit supplies enough to support prices.

Crude inventories are also on the rise in the US while the volume of oil stored aboard ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks after tightening Western sanctions curtailed imports into China and India.

Oil from offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play will be key sources of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030, Rystad Energy has predicted.

Rystad has predicted that global liquids demand will peak in the 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day, maintain a plateau above 100 million barrels per day through the 2040s before declining to around 75 million barrels per day by 2050. According to the Norwegian energy consultancy, non-OPEC+ supply will be key to balancing the global market, with cheap oil from South America helping to offset slower US shale growth.

Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 5.9 million barrels per day, or nearly 60 per cent, of new conventional oil currently under development through 2030 (total new capacity).

Doubts over the effectiveness of the latest US sanctions against Russia are also weighing on crude prices.

Russian oil producer Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq’s giant West Qurna-2 oilfield after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major hampered its operations. Lukoil’s operations faced mounting disruptions as a US deadline for companies to cut off business with the Russian company looms on November 21 and after an agreement to sell the operations to Swiss trader Gunvor collapsed.

Also, the US Senate moved forward on Sunday on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending a shutdown. The move boosted investors’ risk appetite.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Nigeria Renews Push for West African Single Currency as ECOWAS Hold Talks

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ECOWAS Single Currency

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is stepping up engagement toward the creation of a regional single currency, following fresh consultations among West African monetary authorities, following constant delay of achieving the goal.

In an update by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) via its X handle, the Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, led the country’s delegation to the Committee of Governors meeting held in Monrovia, Liberia, where policymakers reviewed progress and renewed discussions on establishing the long-proposed single currency known as the Eco.

Last year, the West African bloc announced that the single regional currency would be launched by 2027 to foster greater economic integration among member states by facilitating trade through a unified payment system, enhancing price stability and reducing inflationary pressures.

In the latest development, the CBN statement noted that the Nigerian delegation also included Deputy Governor (Economic Policy), Mr Muhammad Sani Abdullahi.

“The meeting formed part of statutory engagements jointly organised by the Economic Community of West African States alongside the West African Monetary Agency, the West African Monetary Institute, and the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management. The consultations brought together financial regulators and economic policymakers across the sub-region to assess convergence benchmarks required for launching the unified currency”, the apex bank said.

The Eco project is designed to deepen economic integration among ECOWAS member states by providing a common legal tender that would facilitate cross-border trade, enhance price transparency and reduce transaction costs tied to multiple currency exchanges. The initiative has been under discussion for over two decades but has experienced repeated postponements as member countries struggle to meet strict macroeconomic convergence criteria.

The apex bank noted that the meeting focused on evaluating member states’ performance against key economic indicators. These include inflation rate ceilings, fiscal deficit thresholds relative to gross domestic product, and foreign reserve adequacy, all considered critical safeguards for ensuring stability within a potential monetary union.

Despite many delays, ECOWAS latest move shows it may be aligning with Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Yusuf Tuggar, saying last year that member states have started attaining benchmarks to see the goal actualised.

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Economy

NCS Denies Manipulating FX Rates in Import, Export Valuation

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has clarified how foreign exchange rates are applied in its import and export valuation, saying it neither determines nor alters rates used in cargo clearance.

The service, in a statement by its National Public Relations Officer, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, explained that it relies solely on official figures transmitted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Mr Maiwada stated that recent public commentary surrounding forex pricing, investor reactions, and customs valuation had prompted NCS to explain the operational framework guiding its digital clearance platform.

“It is worthy of note that the reported exchange rate of N1,451.63/US$ for February 6, 2026 did not originate from the B’Odogwu system.

“That figure was sourced from trade.gov.ng, a legacy public trade information portal that does not reflect live Customs processing data,” it stated.

According to him, all exchange rates used in trade processing are automatically integrated into its Unified Customs Management System, known as B’Odogwu, which it described as the sole official portal for declarations, clearance, and valuation.

“It is important to provide factual clarification on how exchange rates are received, processed, and applied within the NCS digital clearance system, B’Odogwu, a Unified Customs Management System which serves as the sole official platform for Customs declarations, clearance, and valuation,” the statement reads.

The NCS spokesman said the Service receives rates electronically from the apex bank and applies them uniformly across commands nationwide, ensuring transparency, predictability, and compliance with statutory fiscal and monetary policies.

He argued that NCS does not generate or manipulate exchange rates under any circumstances.

Instead, it explained that the platform operates structured data-integration protocols designed to ingest and apply exchange-rate feeds exactly as transmitted.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the Nigeria Customs Service does not independently determine, generate, alter, or apply margins to foreign exchange rates used for import and export valuation.

“All exchange rates applied within the B’Odogwu platform are official rates electronically transmitted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which remains the competent authority for exchange rate determination under Nigeria’s monetary framework,” Mr Maiwada added.

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Economy

Dangote Gets $400m Chinese Construction Equipment for Refinery Expansion

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Dangote Group

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

To fast track the expansion of its Lagos-based refinery, Dangote Group has sealed a $400 million construction equipment deal with one of the leading manufacturers of construction machinery in China, XCMG Construction Machinery Company Limited.

A statement from the conglomerate disclosed that beyond refining, the expansion programme will see polypropylene production increase from 900,000 metric tonnes per annum to 2.4 million metric tonnes per annum.

Urea capacity in Nigeria will be tripled from 3 million to 9 million metric tonnes per annum, in addition to the 3 million metric tonnes per annum capacity in Ethiopia, strengthening the Group’s position as the largest urea producer globally.

There are plans to expand the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day, positioning it to become the largest refinery in the world.

The Chinese deal will enable Dangote Group to acquire additional wide range of advanced construction equipment to support ongoing and forthcoming projects across refining, petrochemicals, agriculture and large-scale infrastructure development. The new equipment will complement existing assets deployed for the refinery expansion, which is expected to be completed within three years.

Production capacity for Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) will also be increased to 400,000 metric tonnes per annum, positioning the Group as the largest producer in Africa and strengthening supply to the detergent and cleaning agents manufacturing industry. Additional base oil production capacity also forms part of the broader expansion programme.

Dangote Group described the agreement as a strategic investment aimed at deepening its construction footprint and accelerating its ambition to build a $100 billion enterprise by 2030.

“The additional equipment we are acquiring under this partnership will significantly enhance execution across our projects. With this investment, we are positioning ourselves to become the number one construction company in the world,” it stated.

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