Economy
Crude Oil Prices Rise Over Fresh Middle East Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday as traders braced for potential supply disruptions in the Middle East due to rising tensions in Yemen.
Brent crude futures rose $1 or 1.7 per cent to $61.64 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.10 or 1.9 per cent to $57.84 per barrel.
In Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition has vowed to retaliate against any military moves by the main southern separatist group backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Meanwhile, Iran declared a “full-scale war” against the US, Israel, and Europe.
Reuters reported that an escalation of fighting on Thursday killed two people from the separatist group Southern Transitional Council’s Hadhrami Elite Forces in Hadramout, the group said in its statement. Saudi airstrikes followed early on Friday, targeting the STC forces in the area.
Ongoing conflicts and political friction have been creating market jitters and the risk of supply disruptions over the past couple of weeks.
Recent developments, such as the Ukraine war (including attacks on Russian energy infrastructure) as well as unrest in the Middle East has led investors to price in a small risk premium for crude.
Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on the Russian presidential residence in northern Russia, due to which Moscow now plans to review its position in peace talks.
Ukraine dismissed Russian statements about the drone attack and its foreign minister said Russia was seeking “false justifications” for further strikes against its neighbour, which it has been attacking since February 2022.
Prior to these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said on Monday that significant progress had been made in talks with US counterpart Donald Trump and agreed that US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week to finalise issues aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The US government also said President Trump had also held a “positive call” with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine.
Data on US stockpiles for the week ended December 19 remain missing as the report, which was expected to be published on Monday was delayed without assigning a new publication time.
Economy
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Exports Rise 11.5% to $6.1bn in 2025—NEPC
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has disclosed that Nigeria’s non-oil exports for the year 2025 stood at $6.1 billion.
According to the NEPC Executive Director, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, on Monday, the figure showed a growth of 11.5 per cent compared to the $5.4 billion recorded in December 2024.
Mrs Ayeni noted that while the top three export destinations for the year were the Netherlands, Brazil, and India, a total of 1.23 million metric tonnes of goods were exported to 11 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries, with Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin topping the list.
However, she explained that the exit of Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger led to a decline of trade within the ECOWAS sub-region, as well as Africa.
The three countries under military juntas have moved to restrict trade with their fellow West Africans.
A further breakdown of the 2025 report of the non-oil sector showed that 281 products, which include agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, were exported.
Top products on the list of non-oil export include cocoa, sesame seeds, urea, soya beans, and rubber, amongst others.
Nigeria has moved in recent times to boost its non-oil exports to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and price volatility associated with commodities like oil.
Despite Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil revenues, it continues to expose the country to sudden fiscal pressures whenever global prices fall, often constraining public spending and slowing growth.
The latest NEPC data shows that by expanding exports in agriculture, manufacturing, services, and creative industries, Nigeria can build a more balanced economic structure that is better able to absorb global disruptions while sustaining steady income flows.
Market analysts have noted that strengthening non-oil exports can help Nigeria’s long-term competitiveness and foreign exchange (FX) earnings. It could also further improve the country’s trade balance, support currency stability, and attract investment by signalling economic resilience and policy credibility.
Economy
IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth to 4.4% on Improved Macroeconomic Conditions
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.
This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.
However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”
The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.
It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.
The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.
It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.
Economy
FG Targets Quicker Delivery of Oil, Gas Projects
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) execution as a critical lever for timely and successful delivery of oil and gas projects.
This was stated by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, while presiding over an EPC Steering Committee Meeting, where stakeholders reviewed progress from previous EPC roundtables and examined emerging industry perspectives shaping project execution in Nigeria.
Mr Lokpobiri said the meeting provided an opportunity to assess milestones achieved so far, align on shared priorities, and identify gaps requiring sustained attention to improve delivery outcomes across the sector.
“We reviewed progress updates from previous roundtables and discussed emerging EPC perspectives shaping the industry,” the minister said.
“The session allowed us to assess how far we have come, align on shared priorities, and identify areas requiring sustained focus to strengthen delivery outcomes,” he added.
He stressed that government remains deliberate in creating a conducive operating environment for industry players, noting that EPC effectiveness is central to achieving efficiency, cost discipline and long-term value in petroleum projects.
“Our commitment to maintaining a conducive operating environment for industry players is reflected in our efforts to provide the necessary support to enable efficient and productive operations,” Mr Lokpobiri stated.
The minister further emphasized that as Nigeria continues to promote and advocate for new oil and gas developments, EPC contractors and frameworks will play a decisive role in ensuring projects are executed on schedule and deliver optimal economic benefits.
“As we continue to promote and advocate for new projects, the role of EPC remains critical to achieving successful execution, timely delivery, and long-term value,” he added.
The EPC Steering Committee engagement forms part of ongoing government-industry collaboration aimed at de-risking project execution, accelerating investments and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s petroleum sector.
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