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Crude Oil Prices Soar on Halted Supply at Kazakh Field

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices closed higher on Wednesday on optimism around tighter supply after a temporary shutdown at two large fields in Kazakhstan, with Brent futures gaining 32 cents or 0.5 per cent to finish at $65.24 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rising by 26 cents or 0.4 per cent to $60.62 a barrel.

Kazakhstan, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) halted output at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields due to power distribution issues.

The market initially treated the Kazakhstan outage as a bullish catalyst, as Tengiz is one of the world’s largest oil fields, but it soon became clear that the interruption would be temporary, limiting its ability to underpin prices for long.

Reuters reported that output at the two fields could remain shut for another seven to 10 days, according to industry sources. The shutdown follows fires that damaged power infrastructure serving the Chevron-operated Tengiz site and the adjacent Korolev field.

Elsewhere in the country, oil from the vast Kashagan field has been diverted to the domestic market for the first time due to bottlenecks at the Black Sea CPC terminal, after equipment at the terminal was seriously damaged in drone attacks.

Prices also gathered support as low volume of Venezuelan oil exports highlighted slow progress in reversing output cuts in the South American country.

The volume of Venezuelan oil exported under a flagship $2 billion supply deal with the U.S. reached about 7.8 million barrels on Wednesday.

The world’s oil demand growth is set to rise by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, thanks to lower oil prices and a normalization of economies after the 2025 tariff chaos, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, raising its demand growth estimate by 70,000 barrels per day from last month.

Oil demand is forecast to grow by an average 930,000 barrels per day this year, accelerating from 850,000 barrels per day in 2025, the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report for January.

In the December report, the IEA had expected global oil demand growth at 860,000 barrels per day for 2026.

Global oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day this year to 108.7 million barrels per day, following a jump of 3 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the IEA.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States saw a build of 3.04 million barrels in the week ending January 16. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Thursday, a day later due to Monday’s federal holiday in the US.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Expect Naira Below N1,000/$1 with Dangote Refinery at Full Capacity—Otedola

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Femi Otedola, has congratulated his billionaire friend, Mr Aliko Dangote, on the Dangote Refinery achieving its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, expressing optimism that this will further strengthen the Naira against the US Dollar in the currency market.

In an X post on Thursday, Mr Otedola described it as a transformative milestone for Nigeria and Africa, noting that the refinery’s operations could ease pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.

“I congratulate my friend and brother, @AlikoDangote, on the remarkable achievement of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full 650,000 barrels per day capacity.

“More importantly, it is transformational for Nigeria and Africa. Supplying up to 75 million litres of PMS daily changes our energy narrative and conserving foreign exchange.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the Naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” he wrote.

Earlier today, it was reported that all key components, including the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer unit, of the single train refinery are now operating steadily at 650,000 barrels per day. This enables the facility to produce up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) daily, significantly boosting Nigeria’s domestic fuel supply and reducing reliance on imports.

The $20 billion refinery, Africa’s largest, began operations in 2023 and has been ramping up production amid challenges, including crude supply issues.

Mr Dangote announced plans in October 2025 to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, which would make it the world’s largest refinery, surpassing India’s Jamnagar facility.

Mr Otedola added that his best friend is investing an additional $12 billion in this expansion, including the production of polypropylene and Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergents, with work already underway.

“Aliko is not stopping here. He has embarked on an additional $12 billion expansion to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside 2.4 million tons of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergent production. Work has already commenced in earnest.

“Congratulations once again, my brother. Nigeria is proud of you,” he said.

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Trade Facilitation: Customs Okays Lagos Free Zone Green Channel

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has approved the activation of the Lagos Free Zone Green Channel to enable the seamless and controlled movement of Free Zone cargo directly from the Lekki Deep Sea Port to the Lagos Free Zone (LFZ).

This development makes LFZ the first and only zone in the country to operate a sanctioned green channel, reflecting globally recognised port-to-free-zone logistics and customs integration models successfully implemented in leading trade hubs in the Middle East and Asia.

With this, businesses in the Lagos Free Zone can now scale their industrial output with total peace of mind, as every consignment is protected by an unbroken chain of 24/7 CCTV surveillance, telemetry, and tamper-evident digital logs that ensure absolute cargo integrity.

This integration not only secures the supply chain but also builds unrivalled investor confidence by establishing a transparent, high-compliance trade environment monitored directly by the customs.

For manufacturers and distributors, the outcome is a predictable, ultra-fast logistics flow that solidifies LFZ as the most efficient regional hub for Nigerian and West African operations.

“This approval is a testament to our commitment to trade modernisation. The Lagos Free Zone Green Channel will enhance Customs visibility while significantly improving investor confidence in Nigeria’s Special Economic Zones,” the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Bashir Adeniyi,” stated.

On her part, the chief executive of LFZ, Mrs Adesuwa Ladoja, said, “The activation of the Lagos Free Zone Green Channel is the latest testament to our customer-centricity and our commitment to continually deliver enhanced ease of doing business for our tenants.

“The Green Channel solidifies the advantages of Lekki Deep Sea Port being physically and digitally integrated into our zone. We have effectively removed the ‘last mile’ uncertainty that has historically challenged Nigerian logistics.

“Our tenants no longer need to navigate the complexities of traditional port exits; instead, they benefit from a high-velocity, customs-integrated corridor that moves cargo with precision and speed.

“This is a game-changer for manufacturing and regional distribution, reinforcing Lagos Free Zone as the premier gateway for those looking to dominate the West African market.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Finally Hits Full 650,000-Barrel Per Day Capacity

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Refinery has reached its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day following the successful optimisation of critical processing units, marking a turning point for Africa’s largest refinery, located in Lagos.

The $20 billion facility is now operating at full capacity, a world-record milestone for a single-train refinery.

This achievement comes after the completion of an intensive performance testing on the refinery’s Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block.

According to the chief executive of Dangote Refinery, Mr David Bird, the refinery is now positioned to supply up to 75 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market, a dramatic increase from the 45 million – 50 million litres delivered during the recent festive period.

The development can reshape Nigeria’s energy landscape and reduce the country’s longstanding dependence on imported refined products.

“Our teams have demonstrated exceptional precision and expertise in stabilising both the CDU and MS Block,” Mr Bird said. “This milestone underscores the strength, reliability, and engineering quality that define our operations.”

The refinery has completed a 72-hour series of performance test runs in collaboration with technology licensor UOP, a Honeywell company, to validate operational efficiency and confirm that all critical parameters meet international standards.

The tests covered the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer unit, which together form the backbone of the facility’s gasoline production capability.

The milestone marks another achievement for the businessman and majority stake owner at the facility in his ambition to transform Nigeria from Africa’s largest crude oil producer into a refining powerhouse.

Since the commencement of the facility in 2016, it has faced numerous setbacks, including pandemic-related delays, foreign exchange challenges, and technical complications.

It was finally commissioned in May 2023 to help wean Nigeria off imported petroleum products, due to the chronic underperformance of its state-owned refineries.

Despite being Africa’s largest crude producer, the country has not been able to self-produce, even with four state-owned refineries with a combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day. This has led to decades of high dependency on importation.

The Dangote refinery’s emergence at full capacity has the potential to eliminate this import dependence while positioning Nigeria as a net exporter to West African markets.

Yet, the refinery faces difficulty securing adequate crude oil supplies from Nigerian producers, forcing it to import feedstock from the US, Brazil, Angola, and other countries.

Mr Bird also confirmed that Phase 2 performance test runs for the remaining processing units are scheduled to commence next week, suggesting further capacity optimisation ahead.

The official emphasised the refinery’s commitment to “enhancing Nigeria’s energy security while supporting industrial development, job creation, and economic diversification.”

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