Economy
Nigeria Eyes Oil Windfall as Brent Hits $80 on US-Israel-Iran Conflict
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria could face a windfall from rising oil prices as Brent crude, the international crude benchmark, hit $80 per barrel on Monday as the United States and Israel air strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into crisis.
Following the action, which commenced on Saturday, most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for around 20 per cent of global oil flows.
Energy analysts and investment banks expect oil prices to surge this week to $90, with a chance of hitting $100 per barrel if disruptions to traffic in the crucial Strait of Hormuz persist.
As of press time, oil prices had already spiked by 10 per cent to above $80 per barrel for Brent. This could have a positive ripple effect for Nigeria, which is an oil-producing country despite challenges to production, as it uses the Brent crude price to gauge the value of its crude grades, including Bonny Light, Qua Iboe, Forcados, Escravos, among others.
Nigeria, which depends on crude for over 80 per cent of export earnings and a substantial share of government revenue, could see elevated prices translate to higher foreign exchange earnings, stronger reserves, and improved balance of payments.
Seeing the scale of the conflict and the already disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts expect further spikes at least this week. This could mean higher oil export receipts, which could boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange liquidity, which can support the Naira and reduce FX volatility if the gains translate into actual FX inflows.
However, the country is plagued by volatile oil production, with oil output below the 1.5 million quota ascribed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC). Latest data released last month showed that Nigeria’s production increased to 1.45 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.42 million barrels per day in December 2025.
Meanwhile, eight members of OPEC+, excluding Nigeria, on Sunday agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2 per cent of global demand.
Analysts See Oil Prices at $90 a barrel in the Near Term
Citigroup expects Brent Crude to trade in the $80 to $90 per barrel range over at least the coming week in the bank’s base case.
“Our baseline view is that the Iranian leadership changes, or that the regime changes sufficiently as to stop the war within 1-2 weeks, or the US decides to de-escalate, having seen a change in leadership and set back Iran’s missiles and nuclear program over the same time frame,” analysts at Citigroup wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs sees an $18 a barrel real-time risk premium in oil prices. However, if only 50 per cent of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month, the war risk premium to prices would moderate to $4 per barrel, according to Goldman.
Wood Mackenzie sees disruption in flows to push oil to above $100 per barrel.
“Higher oil and gas prices are certain as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to disrupt 15% of global oil supply and 20% of global LNG supply, with oil prices potentially exceeding $100/bbl if tanker flows are not quickly restored,” it said in a press release.
Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south for the fourth consecutive session after it shed 1.18 per cent on Friday, March 13.
The unlisted securities market recorded a loss despite closing without a price decliner, and ending with two price gainers led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gained 1o Kobo to sell at N3.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N3.00 per share. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated during the session by 2 Kobo to trade at 54 Kobo per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of 52 Kobo per unit.
When the market closed for the day, the market capitalisation lost N29.83 billion to close at N2.489 trillion compared with the N2.519 trillion it finished a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) crashed by 49.84 points to 4,160.46 points from 4,210.31 points.
Market activity improved yesterday, as the volume of transactions rose 179.5 per cent to 10.4 million units from 3.7 million units, but the value of trades declined by 68.4 per cent to N29.9 million from N95.0 million, while the number of deals weakened by 11.5 per cent to 46 deals from 52 deals.
Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc followed with 6.4 million units traded at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc transacted 6.3 million units for N584.3 million.
Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units valued at N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira continued to claw back some gains against the Dollar in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market, as its value was strengthened on Friday.
In the black market, it gained N10 against the United States Dollar yesterday to close at N1,400/$1 compared with the preceding day’s rate of N1,410/$1, and at the GTBank forex counter, it chalked up N6 to close at N1,385/$1, in contrast to the N1,391/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
Similarly, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), it appreciated against the greenback during the session by N5.28 or 0.38 per cent to quote at N1,366.23/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,371.51/$1.
It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market on Friday by N21.81 to settle at N1,812.99/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,834.80/£1, and gained N13.86 against the Euro to sell at N1,568.03/€1 versus N1,581.89/€1.
Pressure eased further on the FX market as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued interventionist operations this week, selling Dollars to banks to boost liquidity after a $500 million boost last week.
This was complemented by inflows from foreign investors, exporters and non-bank corporates, among others, while Nigeria’s gross external reserves remained above $50 billion, the highest since 2009.
The Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, also eased fears of a Naira devaluation, saying the country’s financial system has been strengthened by reforms.
Regardless, external pressure looms as the US Dollar strengthened globally due to its war with Iran, now ongoing for three weeks.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely down as traders and investors continue to align with current realities.
The market is adapting to the conflict in real time. Early in the war, every headline produced an outsized reaction because nobody could price the tail risk. Now, traders have a framework where strikes happen, oil spikes and bitcoin dips only to recover again.
Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 3.8 per cent to $0.2623, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.7 per cent to finish at $0.0948, Ripple (XRP) slumped 1.5 per cent to $1.39, Solana (SOL) dropped 1.4 per cent to sell for $87.33, Binance Coin (BNB) went down by 1.3 per cent to $653.58, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.1 per cent to $70,670.63, and Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 0.9 per cent to $2,078.78.
However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 1.7 per cent to $0.2941, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of the major crude oil grade, Brent crude oil, closed above $100 on Friday for the second consecutive session, as the Iran war heads toward its third week, with oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still effectively at a standstill.
It gained 2.67 per cent or $2.68 during the trading day to close at $103.14 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade appreciated by 3.11 per cent or $2.98 to settle at $98.71 per barrel.
Brent futures were up about 10 per cent for the week following the 27 per cent rise seen last week, which marked the biggest weekly gain in oil prices since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. WTI futures, which saw their best week since 1983 last week, ended the week more than 8 per cent higher.
US President Donald Trump said American forces launched a major bombing raid on Iran’s strategic Kharg Island, targeting military facilities on the key Persian Gulf outpost while warning Iran that its vital oil infrastructure could be destroyed if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
The terminal accounts for roughly 90 per cent of Iranian crude shipments, loading millions of barrels per day onto tankers bound largely for Asian markets.
The US and Israel’s strikes in the conflict have largely targeted Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Oil facilities elsewhere in Iran have been hit, but Kharg’s massive storage tanks, jetties, and pipelines had remained untouched until the latest strike.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep fighting in a message delivered via state television.
There have been a number of attacks on foreign ships in or near the Strait, feeding into concerns that a prolonged war could translate to a global economic shock.
Prices are rising despite the US and its allies rolling out some measures to keep a lid on energy costs.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million stockpiled barrels, the largest such action in history.
The US has issued a 30-day waiver for India to purchase sanctioned oil from Russia. President Donald Trump is considering loosening rules under the Jones Act that require American ships to transport goods between domestic ports, including oil and gas, in an effort to lower costs.
Traders are continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East.
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