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Crude Oil up as Traders Expect Colder Temperatures in US, Europe Early 2025

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices went up on Monday as investors bet on a temperature drop across the United States and Europe over the coming weeks to boost diesel demand.

Brent crude futures jumped by 22 cents or 0.3 per cent to settle at $74.39 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 39 cents or 0.6 per cent to trade at $70.99 a barrel.

Reuters reported that concerns about colder weather in the weeks ahead are boosting diesel as a substitute for natural gas in space heating.

Heating degree days, a measure of energy demand for space heating, are expected to rise to 499 over the next two weeks in the US, compared with 399 estimated on Friday.

There is also anticipation that the weather will be colder in Europe in February 2025.

Further support for oil prices could come from declining US crude stockpiles, which are expected to have fallen by about 3 million barrels last week.

Last week, prices were buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown from US crude inventories in the week ended December 20 as refiners ramped up activity and the holiday season boosted fuel demand.

Investors are also waiting for China’s PMI factory surveys, due on Tuesday, followed by the US ISM survey on Friday, to gauge the economic health of the top oil-consuming nations.

Market analysts warned that China, the world’s largest oil importer, faces a weaker economy which could lead to oversupply in oil markets next year.

This happens as Chinese authorities issued over 152 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners to be able to get enough for their refineries.

The Asian country has seen lacklustre oil demand and crude imports in 2024 amid a weaker-than-expected economy and faltering demand for road transportation fuels.

Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion Yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025 to revive economic growth.

Oil market participants are also speculating that US President-elect Donald Trump will cut Iranian crude oil exports to below 500,000 barrels per day through sanctions, taking over 1 million barrels of daily crude oil supply off the global market.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

31 Stocks Lift Nigerian Exchange by 0.74% as Bulls Take Charge

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By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited bounced back into the green zone on Thursday after it closed higher by 0.74 per cent.

This growth was triggered by the gains recorded in three of the six key sectors of the local stock market, after the banking and the energy indices shed 0.35 per cent and 0.03 per cent apiece, with the commodity space closing flat.

Business Post reports that the insurance counter expanded by 2.99 per cent, the consumer goods index appreciated by 1.15 per cent, and the industrial goods counter marginal grew by 0.01 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 1,088.58 points to 147,950.59 points from 146,862.01 points and the market capitalisation jumped by N694 billion to N94.319 trillion from N93.625 trillion.

During the trading day, 31 stocks ended on the advancers’ chart  and 24 stocks finished on the laggards’ log, showing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

Japaul gained 9.88 per cent to sell for N2.78, Berger Paints also appreciated by 9.88 per cent to N40.05, Morison improved by 9.77 per cent to N4.27, PZ Cussons advanced by 9.36 per cent to N45.00, and Legend Internet soared by 8.91 per cent to N5.50.

Conversely, John Holt lost 9.26 per cent to trade at N4.90, Champion Breweries depreciated by 7.86 per cent to N12.90, Eterna dipped by 5.48 per cent to N30.20, VFD Group shed 5.07 per cent to N10.30, and The Initiates contracted by 4.80 per cent to N11.90.

Yesterday, the trading volume, value, and number of deals went down by 29.10 per cent, 0.81 per cent, and 5.23 per cent, respectively.

This was because traders traded 529.7 million equities for N12.3 billion in 18,159 deals compared with the 747.1 million equities worth N12.4 billion transacted in 19,161 deals on Wednesday.

On top of the activity chart was Access Holdings with a turnover of 156.3 million units worth N3.2 billion, FCMB exchanged 74.5 million units valued at N819.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 42.9 million units for N812.7 million, Japaul transacted 41.2 million units worth N106.0 million, and Zenith Bank traded 20.3 million units valued at N1.3 billion.

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Economy

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, Trim in Expected Surplus Weaken Oil Prices

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors focused on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and trimming in the projected 2026 oil surplus, with Brent crude trading at $61.28 a barrel after losing 93 cents or 1.49 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $57.60 a barrel, down by 86 cents or 1.47 per cent.

The prospect of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine also appeared to be driving the market lower. Such a deal would likely increase the supply of Russian oil that is currently off the market for most of the world.

Despite attacks, market analysts noted that there seems to be some movement on a possible path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The leaders of Britain, France and Germany held a call on Wednesday with US President Donald Trump to discuss the US’ latest peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine, in what they said was a “critical moment” in the process.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that a recent visit to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff had resolved misunderstandings between the two countries.

Ukraine’s security services (SBU) executed a long-range drone strike on the Vladimir Filanovsky offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea, a key Lukoil facility, forcing a suspension of oil and gas production.

The attack is significant as it marks the first time Kyiv has targeted hydrocarbon extraction assets in the distant Caspian region, demonstrating a growing capability to hit critical upstream assets far from the frontline.

On Wednesday, the US said it seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, as escalating tensions between the two countries raised concerns about supply disruptions.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report maintained a firm demand outlook for 2025-2026, pointing to resilient consumption in China, India, and the Middle East while reiterating that non-OPEC supply growth is set to moderate after 2025.

The group also noted that OPEC+ supply management continues to anchor market stability, a markedly more optimistic stance than the International Energy Agency (IEA’s) earlier glut-heavy narrative.

In its latest update, the agency trimmed the projected 2026 surplus for the first time since May, cutting its glut forecast from 4.09 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day as sanctions on Russia and Venezuela curb supply and as global demand proves stronger than previously assumed. Improved macro conditions and easing tariff concerns also prompted the IEA to revise 2026 demand growth upward by 90,000 barrels per day.

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Lagos Ranks Best State for Business Operations in Nigeria

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Lagos remains Nigeria’s top-performing state for ease of doing business, according to a new report by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC).

PEBEC in its Subnational Ease Of Doing Business Report 2025, which analyses the business environment across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), noted that five states stood out as the strongest performers: Lagos, Kaduna, Oyo, the FCT and Ogun.

Lagos with 85.6 per cent stood out particularly for infrastructure such as roads and logistics, land administration, regulatory digital transformation, and digital literacy. It also continues to serve as the country’s tech hub and logistics gateway. Others include Kaduna (65.1 per cent), Oyo (62.7 per cent), the FCT (61.0 per cent) and Ogun (59.9 per cent).

Meanwhile, states such as Benue, Borno, and Zamfara remain at the bottom of the ranking as years of prolonged conflict and terrorism continue to make business operations challenging.

“Lagos state demonstrates strong market access, supported by efficient one-stop shops and clearly published incentives. Streamlined regulatory procedures and coordinated institutional support enable businesses to enter and expand operations with minimal delays, fostering investor confidence and enhancing the state’s attractiveness for new investment,” it said.

While Lagos ranks ahead of its peers, critical gaps include touting and loitering, investor aftercare, and digital connectivity.

PEBEC warned that “the presence of unauthorized individuals loitering around key business and logistics touchpoints creates an environmental nuisance and introduces significant security and safety concerns for commercial operators and the public.”

On digital connectivity, PEBEC said with network coverage concentrated in urban centres, limiting businesses to city clusters and restricting e-commerce adoption in inner towns and communities, and curtailing digital economic gains, adding that poor performance in investor aftercare signals gaps in post-entry support.

“The absence of a dedicated desk or poorly functioning departments results in delayed responses, inconsistent engagement, and limited guidance for investors, reducing Lagos state’s ability to retain existing investments and attract new capital.”

PEBEC noted that the Lagos State government must launch a high-capacity, dedicated Investor Aftercare Service to provide white-glove support for existing investors.

In the medium term, it advised that the state to prioritize enhanced security measures and regulatory enforcement by integrating real-time surveillance at key street corners and business corridors, coupled with deploying dedicated special task forces to physically remove loitering individuals.

“Crucially, the state should also pass an anti-loitering law to provide the legal framework necessary for sustained enforcement.”

On tackling its long term challenges, Lagos needs to upgrade digital infrastructure by extending fiber optic networks and incentivising last-mile connectivity.

“This will make high-speed internet more reliable, cut operational friction, and help businesses access markets easier,” PEBEC said.

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