Economy
Crude Oil Won’t Sell at $90 Per Barrel in 2023—Analysts
By Adedapo Adesanya
Some oil market analysts have projected that the price of crude oil is not expected to reach $90 per barrel this year due to factors such as a lower possibility of deeper supply cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and China’s record-high crude oil stocks.
Brent crude, which serves as Nigeria’s crude benchmark oil, has experienced more than a 5 per cent increase in the past month. This has been attributed to additional output reductions by OPEC+ members and concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks being eased by cooling inflation in major economies.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment bank, believe that the market will shift into a deficit in the second half of the year, and as a result, prices could potentially move towards $86 a barrel.
The bank asserts that a significantly larger deficit of 3.3 million barrels per day would be necessary to drive crude prices back to the three-figure range. As such, Goldman Sachs believes it is unlikely that the 23-member alliance will cut production in order to raise prices to such levels.
The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mr Suhail Al Mazrouei, said recently that current actions by OPEC+ were sufficient to support the oil market for now, and the group is “only a phone call away” if any further steps are needed.
OPEC+, which includes allies led by Russia, pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude. The group has been limiting supply since late 2022 to bolster the market.
On its part, JPMorgan recently cut its oil price forecasts for this year and 2024 as it sees the global supply growth offsetting a record rise in demand while inventory build-up lowers the risk of price spikes. The Wall Street bank revised its average Brent price forecast for 2023 to $81 per barrel from $90 earlier, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $76 a barrel from $84 previously.
JPMorgan oil market experts also lowered its 2024 price forecasts for Brent to $83 per barrel from $98 and for WTI to $79 a barrel from $94 earlier. Brent futures were trading around $75 a barrel on June 14, while US WTI crude was around $70 per barrel.
The US bank now sees global oil supply growing by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023, surpassing projected demand growth of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do — incentivize supply,” JPMorgan said in a note. The world could consume a record-setting 101.4 million barrels per day of oil this year, led by unprecedented demand in China, India, and the Middle East, it added.
Goldman Sachs report also highlights the potential impact of US shale companies ramping up their output. As these companies have experienced a decrease in production costs, any potential cuts made by the alliance of 23 oil-producing countries could be undermined.
In early June, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, announced that it would extend its voluntary output cut of one million barrels per day until August. Russia also plans to reduce its oil supplies by 500,000 barrels per day in August, in addition to the previously announced output reductions.
The OPEC+ group has implemented total production curbs of 3.66 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 3.7 per cent of global demand. These include a two million barrel per day reduction agreed upon last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day announced in April.
Goldman Sachs points out that there is an increased awareness of the effects of high oil prices, with the energy crisis experienced last year leading to radical policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions.
In March 2022, Brent crude reached nearly $140 a barrel due to fears of global energy shortages triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, is expected to play a significant role in crude oil demand this year. While China’s economy rebounded after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions earlier this year, it experienced a slowdown in May, with weaker retail sales, manufacturing output, and a slowdown in the property sector.
Although China’s macroeconomic performance could improve, Goldman Sachs highlights that the country’s crude oil inventories are nearing record highs. As a result, if demand outperforms expectations, these inventories are likely to be drawn down substantially.
Analysts also said China’s pledge to boost its economy has improved sentiment in oil markets while fundamentals look increasingly bullish.
While the economic data from China and the US remain mixed, the fundamentals are increasingly pointing to a tighter oil market this summer.
Russian crude oil exports have shown signs of decline for a second consecutive week and are estimated to have sunk to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16. Russia is preparing to cut 500,000 barrels per day off its oil exports in August, and shipping plans so far suggest that Russia could deliver on at least part of its pledge to reduce oil exports next month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7.0 million barrels per day in May, for the first time in many months.
Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1.0 million barrels per day in July and August.
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has called on the World Bank to support Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, with a focus on agriculture, youth employment, and private sector growth.
The president sought this assistance when he received a delegation from the World Bank led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations, at the State House, Abuja on Tuesday, noting that the bank’s support will boost his administration’s strategy to strengthen the economy and expand opportunities for Nigerians.
“Since we went into this tunnel of reform, we have our hands on the power and we’re never going to look back. Initially, it was painful and difficult, but those who win are not the ones who give up in difficult times,” Mr Tinubu said.
The president highlighted the importance of mechanization and modernization of agriculture to increase productivity and create opportunities for Nigeria’s large young population.
“We have mechanization centers to help farmers with improved seedings and fertilizers to enhance their programs. The goal is to move farmers from small-scale holders to large cooperatives that can create opportunities for Nigerians,” he explained.
Mr Tinubu also pointed to the petrochemical sector and other domestic industries as areas where the government is working to improve outputs and strengthen local markets. He stressed that reforms are continuous and must be grounded in transparency, accountability, and stability.
“The first reaction to reforms was high inflation, but it has come down dramatically, and the Naira is now stable. We want to help investors operate with ease, reduce bureaucracy, and develop the skills of our people,” he said.
On her part, Ms Anna Bjerde commended the administration for its consistent and steady approach to reforms over the past two years. She highlighted that Nigeria has become a global example of reform implementation, giving confidence to investors and policymakers worldwide.
“The results achieved in the last two years are commendable. Your steady communication of the importance of reforms has given confidence and clarity, and there is no turning back,” Ms Bjerde said.
She emphasized the importance of job creation, particularly for Nigeria’s youth, noting that Africa’s young population is growing rapidly and that SMEs are central to employment generation.
“Agriculture is a huge part of the economy and a major employer. Innovations in mechanization, cooperatives, value-chain development, and infrastructure can be scaled to create more opportunities,” Ms Bjerde said.
She also highlighted the World Bank’s financial support for Nigeria, including public sector financing of $17 billion, private sector support of $5 billion through the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and investment guarantees exceeding $500 million. These instruments are aligned with Nigeria’s reforms, including trade, digital initiatives, and inflation management, to stimulate private sector growth and human development.
“We want to work with Nigeria to accelerate growth, improve access to finance for SMEs, and support early childhood development as part of a comprehensive human development strategy,” she added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange appreciated by 0.96 per cent on Tuesday, February 3, boosting the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 34.54 points to 3,641.30 points from the 3,606.76 points it ended a day earlier.
Equally, the market capitalisation of the trading platform was up during the session by N20.67 billion to end N2.178 trillion from the N2.158 trillion it ended on Monday.
The expansion witnessed by the OTC securities exchange yesterday was buoyed by the gains printed by four stocks on the bourse, with Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc up by N4.00 to sell at N44.00 per unit versus the previous day’s N40.00 per unit.
Further, Air Liquide Plc increased by N1.86 to end at N20.49 per share compared with Monday’s closing price of N18.63 per share, Afriland Properties Plc appreciated by 35 Kobo to N14.00 per unit from N3.65 per unit, and UBN Property Plc added 1 Kobo to settle at N2.20 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N2.21 per share.
On the flip side, there were two price losers led by FrieslandCampinaWamco Nigeria Plc, which shed 4 Kobo to close at N63.50 per unit compared with the previous day’s N63.54 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc lost 3 Kobo to finish at N6.81 per share compared with the N6.84 per share it traded in the preceding session.
Data showed that the volume of securities bought and sold by investors grew by 82.5 per cent to 7.0 million units from 3.9 million units, and the value of securities jumped by 5.2 per cent to N37.9 million from N36.0 million, while the number of deals decreased by 15 per cent to 34 deals from 40 deals.
CSCS Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 15.9 million units sold for N649.0 million, the second spot was taken by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.7 million units worth N110.9 million, while the third position was occupied by Geo-Fluids Plc with the sale of 11.1 million units for N73.1 million.
The most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) was still CSCS Plc with 15.9 million units exchanged for N649.0 million, followed by Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 12.7 million units sold for N5.1 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 11.1 million units traded for N73.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira firmed up against the US Dollar in the various segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, on the back of improved forex liquidity.
In the black market window, the local currency improved its value against the Dollar during the session by N10 to sell for N1,455/$1 compared with the previous day’s rate of N1,465/$1, and at the GTBank FX counter, it gained N33 gain to close at N1,386/$1 versus Monday’s closing value of N1,419/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the domestic currency appreciated against the greenback by N17.45 to trade at N1,372.91/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,390.36/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency chalked up N21.92 against the Pound Sterling yesterday in the official market to quote at N1,877.59/£1 compared with the N1,899.51/£1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and gained N24.76 against the Euro to settle at N1,619.76/€1 versus N1,644.52/€1.
The appreciation seen indicates that available supply is mopping up demand even without any intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in recent weeks, showing that market-driven currency framework is driving a stronger Naira.
Enhanced price discovery following plans by the apex bank to undertake a comprehensive revamp of the FX manual is acting as a pillar of support.
At a recent forum, the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy, CBN, Mr Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, disclosed that the bank was revamping the manual, a key regulatory document used by banks for export proceeds and other foreign trade-related transactions.
According to him, the document was already undergoing significant reforms aimed at aligning market operations with current economic realities.
Mr Abdullahi explained that the revised manual would introduce clearer rules, stronger oversight and improved processes to support transparency and efficiency in the FX market.
He said the reforms are expected to close loopholes, reduce uncertainty for market participants, and support a more orderly functioning of the foreign exchange system.
Also, Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the CBN with the capacity to support the Naira, have continued to rise, reaching $46.59 billion as of 2 February 2026, according to CBN data.
In the cryptocurrency market, most prices still remained down as sentiment among short-term traders remaining cautious after thin liquidity and heavy liquidations pushed prices sharply lower.
Global crypto investment products saw $1.7 billion in outflows last week, marking the second consecutive week of heavy redemptions, with Solana (SOL) down by 5.2 per cent to $98.41.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by 2.4 per cent to $76,638.44, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 2.0 per cent to $761.78, Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 1.9 per cent to $2,277.16, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.6 per cent to $1.60, and the US Dollar Tether (USDT) lost 0.1 per cent to sell at $0.9985.
However, Dogecoin (DOGE) improved by 1.7 per cent to $0.1084, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 1.2 per cent to $0.2868, and Litecoin (LTC) increased by 0.9 per cent to $60.63, while the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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