Economy
Crude Oil Won’t Sell at $90 Per Barrel in 2023—Analysts
By Adedapo Adesanya
Some oil market analysts have projected that the price of crude oil is not expected to reach $90 per barrel this year due to factors such as a lower possibility of deeper supply cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and China’s record-high crude oil stocks.
Brent crude, which serves as Nigeria’s crude benchmark oil, has experienced more than a 5 per cent increase in the past month. This has been attributed to additional output reductions by OPEC+ members and concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks being eased by cooling inflation in major economies.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment bank, believe that the market will shift into a deficit in the second half of the year, and as a result, prices could potentially move towards $86 a barrel.
The bank asserts that a significantly larger deficit of 3.3 million barrels per day would be necessary to drive crude prices back to the three-figure range. As such, Goldman Sachs believes it is unlikely that the 23-member alliance will cut production in order to raise prices to such levels.
The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mr Suhail Al Mazrouei, said recently that current actions by OPEC+ were sufficient to support the oil market for now, and the group is “only a phone call away” if any further steps are needed.
OPEC+, which includes allies led by Russia, pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude. The group has been limiting supply since late 2022 to bolster the market.
On its part, JPMorgan recently cut its oil price forecasts for this year and 2024 as it sees the global supply growth offsetting a record rise in demand while inventory build-up lowers the risk of price spikes. The Wall Street bank revised its average Brent price forecast for 2023 to $81 per barrel from $90 earlier, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $76 a barrel from $84 previously.
JPMorgan oil market experts also lowered its 2024 price forecasts for Brent to $83 per barrel from $98 and for WTI to $79 a barrel from $94 earlier. Brent futures were trading around $75 a barrel on June 14, while US WTI crude was around $70 per barrel.
The US bank now sees global oil supply growing by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023, surpassing projected demand growth of 1.6 million barrels per day.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that high oil prices over the past two years did exactly what they are supposed to do — incentivize supply,” JPMorgan said in a note. The world could consume a record-setting 101.4 million barrels per day of oil this year, led by unprecedented demand in China, India, and the Middle East, it added.
Goldman Sachs report also highlights the potential impact of US shale companies ramping up their output. As these companies have experienced a decrease in production costs, any potential cuts made by the alliance of 23 oil-producing countries could be undermined.
In early June, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, announced that it would extend its voluntary output cut of one million barrels per day until August. Russia also plans to reduce its oil supplies by 500,000 barrels per day in August, in addition to the previously announced output reductions.
The OPEC+ group has implemented total production curbs of 3.66 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 3.7 per cent of global demand. These include a two million barrel per day reduction agreed upon last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day announced in April.
Goldman Sachs points out that there is an increased awareness of the effects of high oil prices, with the energy crisis experienced last year leading to radical policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions.
In March 2022, Brent crude reached nearly $140 a barrel due to fears of global energy shortages triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, is expected to play a significant role in crude oil demand this year. While China’s economy rebounded after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions earlier this year, it experienced a slowdown in May, with weaker retail sales, manufacturing output, and a slowdown in the property sector.
Although China’s macroeconomic performance could improve, Goldman Sachs highlights that the country’s crude oil inventories are nearing record highs. As a result, if demand outperforms expectations, these inventories are likely to be drawn down substantially.
Analysts also said China’s pledge to boost its economy has improved sentiment in oil markets while fundamentals look increasingly bullish.
While the economic data from China and the US remain mixed, the fundamentals are increasingly pointing to a tighter oil market this summer.
Russian crude oil exports have shown signs of decline for a second consecutive week and are estimated to have sunk to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16. Russia is preparing to cut 500,000 barrels per day off its oil exports in August, and shipping plans so far suggest that Russia could deliver on at least part of its pledge to reduce oil exports next month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7.0 million barrels per day in May, for the first time in many months.
Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1.0 million barrels per day in July and August.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pathway Advisors Limited has announced its role as Lead Issuing House to a N300 billion Commercial Paper Programme for Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, reinforcing its leadership in capital market advisory and energy sector finance.
The transaction was formally concluded with the execution of programme documentation at Capital Club, Victoria Island, Lagos, following the completion of all regulatory and programme clearances. The signing ceremony marked a defining milestone in mobilising large-scale short-term capital for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
Speaking at the event, the chief executive of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade, emphasised the strategic significance of the Commercial Paper issuance in financing working capital, thereby enabling high-growth energy businesses to scale efficiently and sustainably.
“Nigeria’s downstream energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, accelerated by the removal of fuel subsidies, the emergence of domestic refining capacity, and rising demand for reliable product supply across the country and the broader West African region.
“Companies like Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited with a vertically integrated model, a strong track record, and a clear growth mandate are exactly the kind of issuers that the capital markets should be financing,” Mr Alade stated.
“Commercial paper, when structured appropriately, gives operationally strong businesses access to a deep and diverse pool of institutional investors, at tenors and costs that support the working capital intensity of petroleum trading and distribution. This transaction is a testament to what is achievable when credible issuers partner with experienced advisers to access the markets,” he added.
“The successful execution of this programme further affirms Pathway Advisors’ position as a trusted financial advisory and investment banking firm in complex, large-scale capital market transactions,” he stated.
In his comments, the chief executive of Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, Mr Babajide Babatope, described the commercial paper programme as a pivotal step in the company’s strategy to expand its supply capacity and strengthen its position as a leading integrated energy provider in Nigeria and West Africa.
“Nigeria’s downstream energy market demands scale, speed, and the right capital structure to compete effectively. This commercial paper programme gives us the financial firepower to support our growing volumes, reinforce our supply chain, and serve our customers with greater reliability across the regions we operate in,” Mr Babatope disclosed.
He noted that Pivot is one of the 20 approved off-takers in the Dangote Refinery PMS Consortium, with a target volume of 300 million litres per quarter, a position that underscores the company’s standing in Nigeria’s post-subsidy energy supply architecture. He added that the CP Programme would also support the company’s accelerating regional push, including active operations in Ghana, where Pivot has delivered over 100,000 MT since April 2025, and a planned entry into Tanzania with deliveries targeted in Q3 of 2026.
Mr Babatope further expressed appreciation to Pathway Advisors and other transaction parties for their professionalism, rigour, and commitment throughout the programme’s execution, and signalled his intention to continue deepening these partnerships as Pivot advances to subsequent phases of growth and financing.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) has secured a $12 billion commitment from South Korea to establish a Skills Acquisition Centre in Abuja, as part of efforts to strengthen entrepreneurship and boost small businesses across Nigeria.
The chief executive of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, disclosed this over the weekend during a road walk and sensitisation campaign at Utako Market in Abuja to commemorate the 2026 World MSME Day.
According to Mr Odii, the proposed facility will provide vocational and entrepreneurial training to young Nigerians and enhance the capacity of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
He said the agency is awaiting the allocation of land by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Administration for the project.
“We need land in the FCT to build the Skills Acquisition Centre. If the FCT Administration is unable to provide one, we will use our office premises in Idu, Abuja, because we do not want Nigeria to miss this opportunity offered by the Korean Government to support skills and vocational training,” he said.
As part of activities marking the World MSME Day, Mr Odii also announced the launch of SMEDAN’s N500 million GROW Fund, a zero-interest financing intervention designed to support small businesses across the country.
He explained that the fund would be disbursed to members of registered cooperative societies and business associations to strengthen their enterprises.
According to him, beneficiaries are expected to utilise the funds strictly for business purposes, including expanding working capital, acquiring workspaces and purchasing equipment.
“The funding is meant to support and improve their businesses. It should be used for working capital, workspaces, tools and other productive business needs. Any use outside these objectives will not be encouraged,” he said.
Mr Odii further disclosed that entrepreneurs trained by SMEDAN in Abuja would receive vocational equipment, including washing machines, barbing kits, shoemaking tools and sewing machines, to enable them to become self-reliant.
“We have identified these tools as essential to the businesses of our trainees based on the skills programmes they have undergone,” he added.
The SMEDAN boss stressed that the agency’s interventions are driven by the critical role MSMEs play in Nigeria’s economy.
“Small businesses are the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. By providing infrastructure, skills and financing, we are creating an enabling environment for them to grow, thrive and contribute meaningfully to national development,” he said.
Odii also revealed that the National MSME Policy would be reviewed and relaunched in November 2026 to strengthen the sector and improve its contribution to economic growth.
He called on state governments to collaborate with SMEDAN in expanding skills acquisition programmes, creating jobs, reducing poverty and supporting the economic development agenda of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it diversifies its feedstock sources ahead of continuous expansion.
According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.
The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. The company sources crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.
The refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Plc had agreed on the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in Naira, but the volumes often fluctuate. In May, the state oil company allocated seven cargoes to the plant, up from five in previous months.
The chief executive of the Dangote Refinery, Mr David Bird, had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.
According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
Business Post understands that since NNPC cargoes are cheaper for the refinery because of lower shipping costs, importation of crude could translate to higher fuel prices, with Nigerians possibly buying as high as N1,300 – N1,400 at the pump.
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