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Economy

Currency Traders Predict Naira Fall to N1,560 Per Dollar Next Weeka

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Naira value1

By Adedapo Adesanya

Currency traders expect the value of the Naira to weaken against the US Dollar to as much as N1,560 per Dollar at the official foreign exchange market next week.

According to Reuters, the domestic currency is also expected to remain range-bound, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and exchange bureaus selling Dollars to meet demand from importers and travellers.

Business Post reports that the Naira this month has traded from the N1,532/$1 to N1,535/$1 range, underpinned by robust FX liquidity and an efficient FX market.

However, noticeable pressure has seen the domestic currency fall consecutively this week. It closed at N1,536.18 per Dollar on Wednesday, August 20.

“With inflation easing, speculative trading has been limited, causing the Naira to trade in a tight range around 1,530,” one trader told Reuters, “The Naira is likely to stay in a narrow band between 1,520 and 1,560 next week.”

This is in line with forecasts from many Nigeria-based analysts, with Cordros Capital Limited in a recent note saying, “We expect sustained inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) due to existing carry trade opportunities and stronger market confidence.”

Also, improving non-oil exports, as well as limited incentives for Naira hoarding and speculation, are expected to reinforce steady inflows from domestic sources.

Updated data showed that the gross balance in the nation’s external reserves climbed to $40.962 billion this week.

Inflation also eased for the fourth consecutive month as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that headline inflation eased by 34 basis points to 21.88 per cent year-on-year in July from 22.22 per cent year on year. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices increased to 1.99 per cent versus 1.68 per cent on record in June. Food inflation increased by 77 basis points to 22.74 per cent in July from 21.97 per cent.

This strengthens the position of stakeholders seeking a cut in the country’s interest rate, which has been held steady for the last two cycles at 27.50 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Dangote Rejects NNPC Bid to Raise Stake in Soon-to-Be Listed Refinery

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NNPC vs Dangote refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, has disclosed that he rejected requests by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Mr Dangote stated this in a podcast with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Mr Nicolai Tangen.

In the podcast interview, the billionaire revealed that the state oil company offered to increase its current 7.25 per cent stake in the 650,000 barrels per day plant.

However, this was rejected because the company is planning to go public and give other Nigerians the opportunity to own shares in the plant.

Recall that the refinery is planning a multi-exchange listing and targeting a valuation of $50 billion. It has appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital to handle international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors; Vetiva Capital Management to manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria; and FirstCap to focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds.

It was reported in 2021 that the NNPC acquired the 7.25 per cent stake in the refinery for $1 billion, with an option to acquire the remaining 12.75 per cent stake by June 2024.

However, the national oil firm reneged on its decision.

During the interview with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO, Mr Dangote revealed that the state oil company had made attempts to acquire more stakes in the refinery, but this was turned down.

The revelation came while he was responding to questions about what could be the biggest risks to his businesses.

“Actually, if there are civil wars, which is not in the offing at all.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it.”

In 2024, Mr Dangote revealed that under the former Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Mele Kyari, the NNPC reduced its stake in the refinery from 20 per cent to 7.25 per cent. He disclosed that the NNPC had only a 7.2 per cent stake in the refinery and not 20 per cent as many Nigerians believed.

“The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent,” Mr Dangote stated at the time.

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Economy

Pathway Asset Management’s Adekunle Alade Unveils Blueprint for Sustainable Wealth, Investment Opportunities

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Pathway Asset Management's Adekunle Alade

In this interview with Mr Adekunle Alade, Founder and Director of Pathway Asset Management Limited, he discusses the blueprint for sustainable wealth and investment opportunities. Excepts;

Could you please tell us about Pathway Asset Management?

Pathway Asset Management is registered and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria as a fund and portfolio manager company with the main focus of helping individuals, retail, HNIs and institutions make smarter investment decisions and build long-term sustainable wealth. We understand how complex and unpredictable the Nigerian market can be because we operate in it every day. So, we’ve built a firm that is clear, disciplined, and driven by research, not guesswork.

Our offerings cut across Pathway Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, Fixed Income Notes, Pathway Dollar Notes, Funds/Portfolio Management, Pathway Money Market Fund (coming soon), Pathway Dollar Funds (Coming Soon), and Investment Advisory services, all tailored to each client’s goal. But beyond the products, what really defines us is how we think: deep client understanding, strong governance, and a long-term mindset. That’s what guides every decision we make.

Can you walk us through Pathway Asset Management’s core investment philosophy and how it differentiates the firm in Nigeria’s asset management space?

Our philosophy is simple and profound. We are partners in our clients’ financial success. We create value, but never at the expense of disciplined risk management. Every investment is carefully assessed to ensure the returns justify the risk, helping clients move from speculation to structured, sustainable wealth building.

What sets us apart is our advisory DNA. We don’t just offer investment products; we bring an investment banker’s eye to asset management, combining strategic advice with precise execution.

We combine diversification, deep sector insight, and strong risk discipline to solve wealth preservation challenges, while prioritising transparency, client experience, and long-term outcomes.

Your portfolio includes Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, and Portfolio Management services. How do these products cater to varying investor risk appetites?

We’ve designed our products to meet clients exactly where they are. For more conservative investors, our Fixed Deposit and Money Market offerings are focused on capital preservation, liquidity, and stable income. For clients looking for higher returns, our Privately Managed Notes, across fixed income, hybrid, equity and dollar structures, offer more optimised yield with a bit more structure. 

For more sophisticated or institutional clients, our portfolio management services provide a fully tailored approach. Some clients prefer us to take full discretion, while others want to stay involved. Essentially, we have a vehicle specifically engineered for different investors’ financial goals.

What’s next for Pathway Asset Management? Where are you focusing growth?

With the recent unveiling of our Board of Directors, we’ve strengthened our governance and strategic direction, which is important for where we’re going.

Over the next few months, our focus is on deepening client relationships, expanding our product offerings, especially mutual funds like our upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund and positioning the firm to take advantage of emerging opportunities. For us, growth is not just about scale; it’s about scaling responsibly while maintaining the discipline and trust we’ve built.

What gap in the market is the upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund designed to fill?

For a long time, the Nigerian investment space has had a gap. You either had low-yield savings accounts or high-entry institutional investments. The Pathway Money Market fund is designed to bridge that gap.

With rising inflation, many people are losing value just by keeping money in traditional bank accounts. What we’re doing is opening access, giving everyday investors a simple, regulated way to benefit from high-quality government and corporate instruments with as low as N5,000 to start investing. We want someone with relatively small capital to still participate in opportunities that were previously out of reach. Our focus isn’t just on returns; it’s about providing a liquid, SEC-regulated vehicle where a small saver can get a big-market yield and still have capital preserved.

As a firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, how do you ensure compliance while maintaining operational efficiency?

At Pathway Asset Management Limited, we view compliance as a competitive advantage, built into how we operate every day. To maintain efficiency while meeting and compliance, we have adopted a ‘Compliance-by-Design’ approach from onboarding clients to tech-enabled reporting and risk management without over-leveraging our resources.

We’ve put in place strong internal controls, invested in the right people, have clear processes, and a culture of accountability across the firm. At the same time, we leverage technology and experienced professionals to ensure compliance is seamless, not a bottleneck.

So, for us, it’s about getting it right from the start; operating efficiently while staying fully aligned with regulatory standards.

How do you assess the impact of Nigeria’s current monetary policy direction on investment portfolios?

We’re in a transition phase, from aggressive tightening to a more stable environment.

For us, that creates opportunity. In fixed income, we’re locking in high yields now, knowing that rates may compress as inflation moderates.

At the same time, improving stability in exchange rates and interest rates creates a better environment for businesses, which supports selective equity exposure.

So, rather than reacting, we’re positioning clients to benefit from both sides: strong yields today and potential upside as the macro environment improves.

What safeguards are in place to protect investor capital across your managed portfolios?

At Pathway Asset Management, the security of investor capital is built into our operations through a multi-layered ‘Triple-Lock’ framework. We operate strictly under the license and oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. This means our operations are subject to periodic review, stringent reporting requirements, and minimum capital adequacy standards. 

We don’t just follow the rules; we embrace them as a baseline for trust. But beyond that, one key safeguard is that we don’t hold client funds directly; assets (cash and securities) are held by independent SEC-approved custodians. That separation is critical for transparency and protection. We also apply disciplined investment policies. We don’t chase returns at the expense of safety. Every investment goes through a rigorous assessment process.

How does Pathway Asset Management manage downside risks, particularly in a volatile macroeconomic environment marked by inflation and FX instability?

In a market like Nigeria, volatility isn’t an anomaly; it’s a constant. Our approach to managing downside risk is built on dynamic asset allocation and financial discipline. We also hedge against currency risk by giving clients access to dollar-denominated investments, which helps preserve value.

On inflation, we focus on assets that can reprice or deliver returns above inflation over time. Our focus is not just on returns, but on protecting value and delivering consistency.

What is your outlook for Nigeria’s asset management industry over the next five years?

Nigeria’s asset management industry is entering a defining transition period, and the SEC’s recapitalisation directive is the central catalyst. Over the next five years, the industry will move from a fragmented, lightly capitalised landscape to a more consolidated, institutional, and competitive ecosystem. 

Many smaller or undercapitalised firms will be unable to comply independently, leading to mergers, acquisitions, or outright exits. Within the first two to three years, the number of asset managers is likely to shrink significantly, leaving behind a smaller group of well-capitalised firms alongside a handful of specialised niche players.

In terms of growth, the outlook is structurally positive but cyclical. Assets under management (AUM) are expected to expand at a solid pace, supported by high domestic interest rates, increased financial savings, and improved macroeconomic reforms. 

However, this growth will remain sensitive to macro conditions, particularly FX stability and interest rate cycles. Because a large portion of capital inflows into Nigeria is still short-term and yield-driven, the industry should expect periods of volatility rather than smooth, linear expansion.

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Economy

Otedola Acquires Additional N43bn FirstHoldCo Shares

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First Bank Otedola

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Chairman of First HoldCo Plc, Mr Femi Otedola, maintained his grip on the company, acquiring additional shares valued at approximately N43.41 billion.

The transaction was disclosed in a regulatory filing submitted to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited and signed by the company secretary, Mrs Abiola Baruwa.

The acquisition, executed on the stock exchange on May 13, 2026, involved the purchase of 549,535,653 shares at an average price of N79 per share.

Following the latest purchase, Mr Otedola’s stake in First HoldCo Plc has climbed from 8,055,314,486 units reported in the FY 2025 audited accounts to 8,604,850,139.

The Nigerian billionaire’s total stake has now climbed to 19.36 per cent in his biggest single purchase since becoming chairman in January 2024.

On September 25, 2025, he increased his interest in First HoldCo with the purchase of 64.87 million shares valued at N2.01 billion.

Of this amount, 39.3 million shares were acquired directly on September 23 for about N1.2 billion, while an additional 25.6 million shares worth N793.6 million were bought indirectly through Calvados Global Services Limited on the same day.

Those earlier transactions raised his shareholding to 16.1 per cent, from the 13.15 per cent stake recorded in September 2024.

Apart from First Holdco, the business mogul also has interests in the power sector through Geregu Power, another firm listed on the domestic stock exchange.

He sold his stake in Ardova Plc to invest in the power-generating company.

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