Economy
Ease in Middle East Tensions, Weak Chinese Data Depress Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell about 1 per cent to a two-week low on Tuesday as Middle East supply concerns eased after Israel accepted a proposal to tackle disagreements blocking a ceasefire deal in Gaza, and as economic weakness in China weighed on fuel demand.
Brent futures declined by 46 cents or 0.6 per cent to settle at $77.20 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crumbled by 33 cents or 0.4 per cent to $74.04 per barrel.
US Secretary of State, Mr Antony Blinken, visited Egypt and pushed for progress toward a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal.
According to him, major differences still need to be resolved in talks this week.
Meanwhile, Israel retrieved the bodies of six hostages from the Gaza Strip as negotiations continued to bring back more than 100 captives remaining in the besieged Palestinian enclave.
Market analysts noted that despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, clashes between Israel and Hamas continue, and the markets will remain highly sensitive to any developments in the region.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have said global oil demand growth must accelerate in the coming months or the market will struggle to absorb the group’s planned increase in supply from October.
OPEC member Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said crude exports fell to 6.047 million barrels per day in June from 6.118 million barrels per day in May.
Analysts also noted that if the market fundamentals don’t break this bearish trend soon, OPEC+ may be hesitant to unwind their voluntary cuts anytime soon.
Also, worries continue to emanate from China, the world’s largest oil importer as data showed new home prices fell in July at their fastest pace in nine years. This is as industrial output slowed, export and investment growth dipped and unemployment rose.
There are also worries about fuel demand in the US, the world’s biggest economy, as pressured prices for US heating oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2023 for a second straight day.
Crude oil inventories in the United States rose slightly this week, by 347,000 barrels for the week ending August 16, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts predicted a 2.9 million barrel dip.
For the week prior, the API reported a 5.205-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories. So far this year, crude oil inventories are close to where they were at the start of the year, having increased by 760,000 barrels, according to API data.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in June 2026 moderated to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, as pressure from the Iran war mildly eased, though it largely remained in focus during the review month.
In the report on Wednesday, the statistical office showed that the headline inflation rate for June on a month-on-month basis was 1.66 per cent, 0.09 per cent lower than the 1.75 per cent recorded in May 2026.
On an annualised basis, the print was down from 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025). This was due to the rebasing of the calculation year from 2009 to 2024.
The rise in prices, which stemmed from the continued conflict in the Middle East, continued to stoke food prices and energy costs, which account for a huge chunk of average spending.
The food inflation rate in May 2026 on a month-on-month basis was 3.75 per cent, up by 0.77 percentage points from May 2026 (2.98 per cent), while on a year-on-year basis, it was 17.52 per cent and stood at 25.41 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025).
At 15.91 per cent print, the inflation marginally beat expectations by Meristem Research, predicted at 15.95 per cent.
There had been expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran would help drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front. However, with conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
This will be a core factor that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be looking at when it meets for the next policy meeting. At its last meeting, the committee left benchmarked interest rates at 26.5 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.
With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.
The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.
“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.
“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.
“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.
