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Economy

Economic Recession Outcome of Monetary, Fiscal Policy Failure—Report

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By Mike Uzor

The latest edition of Nigeria Banking & Economy 2016, a publication of Datatrust Consulting Ltd, a firm of financial analysts, has been released.

The research report, which is an x-ray of the Nigerian economy and the banking industry, found a major link between the ravaging economic recession and delayed fiscal action on the part of government.

Inability to move decisively on the path of stimulatory intervention, rather than lack of funds, is the main factor that let the slowing economy plunge into a recession in 2016.

With the long delay in approving the 2016 budget, the fiscal authorities failed to provide the critical fiscal stimulus at the same time that monetary policy remained stringent.

Datatrust economists also affirm that the policy of treasury single account hindered the ability of monetary policy to sustain the flow of goods and services within the economy.

Nigeria’s economy in 2016 experienced a macroeconomic policy lull during which neither fiscal nor monetary policy was effectively deployed to sustain the momentum of the nation’s economic activities.

Efforts to prevent economic decline requires swiftness in order to keep production and consumption functions streaming at normal speed. Nigeria missed the critical point of stimulatory intervention to avert economic recession.

Banks were hindered from helping businesses, the capital market windows remained shut and government held back the much needed stimulatory spending force.

The outcome was a financially arid economy in which both producers and consumers lacked adequate liquidity to operate optimally.

The broken capacity of the capital market as a source of new money is a major factor in the cash flow problems facing companies.

The painstaking analysis, running to over 140-pages, identified a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus as the effective therapy to end economic recession.

The annual publication offers government and regulators policy options based on research findings for addressing critical issues in the economy and the banking sector.

The report takes a special focus on the effects of macroeconomic developments and regulatory policies on the banking sector that constitutes the nerve centre of the economy.

Datatrust study finds that the banking sector has come under much regulatory strain once again even as it was yet to recover fully from the effects of the last global financial crisis.

A sudden enforcement of government’s treasury single account policy has put banks under an unplanned liquidity pressure, which has forced them to liquidate earning assets.

The results are a major slowdown in revenue growth and decline in the size of the balance sheet. It is evidently a wrong time to run a policy that stems the growth in bank lending to an economy in decline.

The general decline in economic activity has again exposed banks to a major operating pressure – loan recovery difficulties.

Rising loan loss expenses at a time of inability to grow revenue is the explanation for declining profit margin, falling profits and losses.

These developments have warranted a cost cutting bandwagon among banks, including layoffs, which are rather reinforcing the economic recession from the angle of domestic consumption.

Assurances that Nigeria will be out of recession in 2017 need to be supported by convincing new policy actions and the authorities need to show the policy transmission mechanism that would lead to reversing these adverse economic trends in the production and consumption functions of the economy.

Money and capital market windows need to be expanded to complement the highly devalued government spending in stimulating economic activity.

Many banks have been trying to achieve full recovery and to resume growth since the downturn induced by the global financial crisis.

Those efforts have been scuttled by the present policy environment so that they are struggling for survival breathes once again.

Policymakers have, as usual, continued to give assurances of good health for the banks; they need to back up their words with policies that empower both banks and their customers.

The banking sector provides the largest meeting point of savers and investors and therefore serves as the nerve centre of the nation’s financial intermediation. It therefore needs to be saved from the type of violent regulatory policy changes to which it is continually exposed.

The report shows details of how each bank is responding to the operating and regulatory challenges and performance prospects going forward. It used a five-year track record of income statements and balance sheets of banks to establish the major operating trends.

With average industry ratio benchmarks, the report makes it clear to see how each bank’s figures compare or contrast from the general industry picture.

The general industry trends as well as individual banks conditions are provided to guide regulatory policies towards ensuring stability and healthy growth in the banking sector. They also provide a reliable guide to strategic decisions and actions on the part of the banks themselves.

The study also shows the various competitive leagues in the banking industry such as leadership by the size of the balance sheet, gross income and profit, etc. The performance charts show the ability to convert assets into revenue and revenue into profit. The analysis brings out clearly each bank’s cost to income relationship and shows how it is either helping or hitting the bottom line.

A major worrisome trend defined by the report is the rapidly growing proportion of revenue devoted to loan loss expenses. This is an unhealthy trend that needs to be checked in order to encourage new lending.

The bearish trend the stock market has taken on banking stocks is a reflection of the uncertain earnings outlook of the sector and regulators cannot afford to ignore this signal. A situation where the banking industry giants have virtually become penny stocks cannot be safely ignored.

Mike Uzor is the Chief Financial Analyst at Datatrust Consulting Ltd

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Run From Any Unregistered Online Investment Platform—SEC Warns Nigerians

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SEC Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

For the umpteenth time, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has run to the rooftop to warn Nigerians against putting their hard-earned money in online investment platforms not authorised to operate in the nation’s capital market.

SEC is the apex regulatory agency in the Nigerian capital market. It issues licences to companies operating in the ecosystem.

In a statement on Thursday, the organisation expressed concerns over the rising “promotion of unregistered online investment schemes on social media applications and websites, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Telegram, Facebook, TikTok and other digital platforms.

In the notice, the SEC emphasised that, “Many of these investment schemes exhibit characteristics of Ponzi or Prohibited investment schemes, while some operators of such schemes also provide unauthorised investment services to members of the public.”

In view of these, the commission advised members of the public “to refrain from investing or participating in any unregistered online investment platform or scheme promising unrealistic or guaranteed returns.”

“Members of the public are further advised not to rely on investment advisories circulated through online platforms by persons or entities not registered by the commission, as reliance on such advisories may expose investors to significant financial losses and fraudulent schemes,” it noted.

“The public is reminded that, under the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025, only entities registered by the commission are authorised to promote investment services, provide investment advisory services or solicit funds from the public in the Nigerian capital market,” another part of the circular signed by the management noted.

The regulator urged the investing public to verify the registration status of any platform, company, or entity offering investment opportunities on its dedicated portal: https://sec.gov.ng/fintech-and-innovation- hub-finport/registered-fintech-operators/ or https://www.sec.gov.ng/cmos before transacting or investing with them.

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Economy

Dangote Rejects NNPC Bid to Raise Stake in Soon-to-Be Listed Refinery

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NNPC vs Dangote refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, has disclosed that he rejected requests by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Mr Dangote stated this in a podcast with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Mr Nicolai Tangen.

In the podcast interview, the billionaire revealed that the state oil company offered to increase its current 7.25 per cent stake in the 650,000 barrels per day plant.

However, this was rejected because the company is planning to go public and give other Nigerians the opportunity to own shares in the plant.

Recall that the refinery is planning a multi-exchange listing and targeting a valuation of $50 billion. It has appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital to handle international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors; Vetiva Capital Management to manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria; and FirstCap to focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds.

It was reported in 2021 that the NNPC acquired the 7.25 per cent stake in the refinery for $1 billion, with an option to acquire the remaining 12.75 per cent stake by June 2024.

However, the national oil firm reneged on its decision.

During the interview with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO, Mr Dangote revealed that the state oil company had made attempts to acquire more stakes in the refinery, but this was turned down.

The revelation came while he was responding to questions about what could be the biggest risks to his businesses.

“Actually, if there are civil wars, which is not in the offing at all.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it.”

In 2024, Mr Dangote revealed that under the former Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Mele Kyari, the NNPC reduced its stake in the refinery from 20 per cent to 7.25 per cent. He disclosed that the NNPC had only a 7.2 per cent stake in the refinery and not 20 per cent as many Nigerians believed.

“The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent,” Mr Dangote stated at the time.

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Economy

Pathway Asset Management’s Adekunle Alade Unveils Blueprint for Sustainable Wealth, Investment Opportunities

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Pathway Asset Management's Adekunle Alade

In this interview with Mr Adekunle Alade, Founder and Director of Pathway Asset Management Limited, he discusses the blueprint for sustainable wealth and investment opportunities. Excepts;

Could you please tell us about Pathway Asset Management?

Pathway Asset Management is registered and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria as a fund and portfolio manager company with the main focus of helping individuals, retail, HNIs and institutions make smarter investment decisions and build long-term sustainable wealth. We understand how complex and unpredictable the Nigerian market can be because we operate in it every day. So, we’ve built a firm that is clear, disciplined, and driven by research, not guesswork.

Our offerings cut across Pathway Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, Fixed Income Notes, Pathway Dollar Notes, Funds/Portfolio Management, Pathway Money Market Fund (coming soon), Pathway Dollar Funds (Coming Soon), and Investment Advisory services, all tailored to each client’s goal. But beyond the products, what really defines us is how we think: deep client understanding, strong governance, and a long-term mindset. That’s what guides every decision we make.

Can you walk us through Pathway Asset Management’s core investment philosophy and how it differentiates the firm in Nigeria’s asset management space?

Our philosophy is simple and profound. We are partners in our clients’ financial success. We create value, but never at the expense of disciplined risk management. Every investment is carefully assessed to ensure the returns justify the risk, helping clients move from speculation to structured, sustainable wealth building.

What sets us apart is our advisory DNA. We don’t just offer investment products; we bring an investment banker’s eye to asset management, combining strategic advice with precise execution.

We combine diversification, deep sector insight, and strong risk discipline to solve wealth preservation challenges, while prioritising transparency, client experience, and long-term outcomes.

Your portfolio includes Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, and Portfolio Management services. How do these products cater to varying investor risk appetites?

We’ve designed our products to meet clients exactly where they are. For more conservative investors, our Fixed Deposit and Money Market offerings are focused on capital preservation, liquidity, and stable income. For clients looking for higher returns, our Privately Managed Notes, across fixed income, hybrid, equity and dollar structures, offer more optimised yield with a bit more structure. 

For more sophisticated or institutional clients, our portfolio management services provide a fully tailored approach. Some clients prefer us to take full discretion, while others want to stay involved. Essentially, we have a vehicle specifically engineered for different investors’ financial goals.

What’s next for Pathway Asset Management? Where are you focusing growth?

With the recent unveiling of our Board of Directors, we’ve strengthened our governance and strategic direction, which is important for where we’re going.

Over the next few months, our focus is on deepening client relationships, expanding our product offerings, especially mutual funds like our upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund and positioning the firm to take advantage of emerging opportunities. For us, growth is not just about scale; it’s about scaling responsibly while maintaining the discipline and trust we’ve built.

What gap in the market is the upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund designed to fill?

For a long time, the Nigerian investment space has had a gap. You either had low-yield savings accounts or high-entry institutional investments. The Pathway Money Market fund is designed to bridge that gap.

With rising inflation, many people are losing value just by keeping money in traditional bank accounts. What we’re doing is opening access, giving everyday investors a simple, regulated way to benefit from high-quality government and corporate instruments with as low as N5,000 to start investing. We want someone with relatively small capital to still participate in opportunities that were previously out of reach. Our focus isn’t just on returns; it’s about providing a liquid, SEC-regulated vehicle where a small saver can get a big-market yield and still have capital preserved.

As a firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, how do you ensure compliance while maintaining operational efficiency?

At Pathway Asset Management Limited, we view compliance as a competitive advantage, built into how we operate every day. To maintain efficiency while meeting and compliance, we have adopted a ‘Compliance-by-Design’ approach from onboarding clients to tech-enabled reporting and risk management without over-leveraging our resources.

We’ve put in place strong internal controls, invested in the right people, have clear processes, and a culture of accountability across the firm. At the same time, we leverage technology and experienced professionals to ensure compliance is seamless, not a bottleneck.

So, for us, it’s about getting it right from the start; operating efficiently while staying fully aligned with regulatory standards.

How do you assess the impact of Nigeria’s current monetary policy direction on investment portfolios?

We’re in a transition phase, from aggressive tightening to a more stable environment.

For us, that creates opportunity. In fixed income, we’re locking in high yields now, knowing that rates may compress as inflation moderates.

At the same time, improving stability in exchange rates and interest rates creates a better environment for businesses, which supports selective equity exposure.

So, rather than reacting, we’re positioning clients to benefit from both sides: strong yields today and potential upside as the macro environment improves.

What safeguards are in place to protect investor capital across your managed portfolios?

At Pathway Asset Management, the security of investor capital is built into our operations through a multi-layered ‘Triple-Lock’ framework. We operate strictly under the license and oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. This means our operations are subject to periodic review, stringent reporting requirements, and minimum capital adequacy standards. 

We don’t just follow the rules; we embrace them as a baseline for trust. But beyond that, one key safeguard is that we don’t hold client funds directly; assets (cash and securities) are held by independent SEC-approved custodians. That separation is critical for transparency and protection. We also apply disciplined investment policies. We don’t chase returns at the expense of safety. Every investment goes through a rigorous assessment process.

How does Pathway Asset Management manage downside risks, particularly in a volatile macroeconomic environment marked by inflation and FX instability?

In a market like Nigeria, volatility isn’t an anomaly; it’s a constant. Our approach to managing downside risk is built on dynamic asset allocation and financial discipline. We also hedge against currency risk by giving clients access to dollar-denominated investments, which helps preserve value.

On inflation, we focus on assets that can reprice or deliver returns above inflation over time. Our focus is not just on returns, but on protecting value and delivering consistency.

What is your outlook for Nigeria’s asset management industry over the next five years?

Nigeria’s asset management industry is entering a defining transition period, and the SEC’s recapitalisation directive is the central catalyst. Over the next five years, the industry will move from a fragmented, lightly capitalised landscape to a more consolidated, institutional, and competitive ecosystem. 

Many smaller or undercapitalised firms will be unable to comply independently, leading to mergers, acquisitions, or outright exits. Within the first two to three years, the number of asset managers is likely to shrink significantly, leaving behind a smaller group of well-capitalised firms alongside a handful of specialised niche players.

In terms of growth, the outlook is structurally positive but cyclical. Assets under management (AUM) are expected to expand at a solid pace, supported by high domestic interest rates, increased financial savings, and improved macroeconomic reforms. 

However, this growth will remain sensitive to macro conditions, particularly FX stability and interest rate cycles. Because a large portion of capital inflows into Nigeria is still short-term and yield-driven, the industry should expect periods of volatility rather than smooth, linear expansion.

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