Economy
Expectations from Oil Prices This Year
By Adedapo Adesanya
Expectations for global crude oil prices in 2021 swing between hope for effective vaccines against COVID-19 and concerns over uncertain oil demand with a second wave of rising infections around the world.
Last year, Brent crude, the international benchmark crude, dropped as low as $16 per barrel while the United States’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in April plunged below zero for the first time in history, due to coronavirus-related lockdowns and relevant declining oil demand.
The price dispute between the world’s second-largest oil producer Saudi Arabia, a leading member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and non-OPEC producing countries led by Russia, greatly contributed to the oil price collapse in March – April 2020
But oil demand gradually rebounded and so did oil prices in the second half of 2020 as the global crude market rationalised supply while business activities resumed in many economies amid preventive measures against the virus.
On the last day of 2020, Brent crude closed at $51.80 dollars while WTI closed at $48.52 per barrel.
In 2021, Brent prices are set to average $50.67 a barrel while the US benchmark is expected to average $47.45 a barrel. Despite expectations about oil demand, recovery is anticipated to remain lower than it was before the pandemic.
It is widely believed that vaccination against the virus will revive optimism about global economic recovery as well as oil demand and prices. If the vaccines are soon widely available and effective, demand is expected to start rising in the second quarter of 2021.
However with the current second wave of COVID-19, with its soaring infections across the world, this is likely to cap oil price gains in the early months of the year and further bring uncertainty about oil demand throughout the New Year.
On the vaccine front, the World Health Organization (WHO) recently granted emergency validation to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which was also authorised by the European Union.
Britain authorised the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine for emergency use, and China approved its Sinopharm vaccine that was also approved in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and recently Egypt. Dozens of other vaccines are currently being tested on humans and animals.
In light of the hopeful indications, OPEC and OPEC+ countries decided in a ministerial meeting in early December to increase production by 500,000 barrels a day as of January.
The group’s meeting will be held every month in 2021 to assess market conditions and needs and decide an adjustable monthly production accordingly. The first of the year will hold today via videoconference.
Despite renewed fears about oil demand due to the new coronavirus strain, Russia is reportedly still in favour of another 500,000 barrels per day increase in the alliance’s oil production from February.
OPEC yesterday noted that crude demand is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels per day to 95.9 million barrels per day this year. The group also sees plenty of downside demand risks in the first half of 2021.
Currently, oil prices are trading up with Brent trading at $52.56 per barrel while WTI is near $49 per barrel.
Economy
NGX Market Cap Swells by N962bn as Investors Ignore Middle East Tension
By Dipo Olowookere
The escalating tension in the Middle East as a result of the attacks on Iran by the duo of the United States and Israel had little or no effect on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday.
The domestic stock market witnessed bargain-hunting yesterday, as investors mopped up equities that could experience price appreciation in the coming days.
Customs Street was up by 0.76 per cent during the trading day, with four of the five major sectors closing in green territory.
The industrial sector appreciated by 3.06 per cent, the banking sector increased by 0.84 per cent, the consumer goods index grew by 0.51 per cent, and the energy segment rose by 0.08 per cent, while the insurance counter lost 0.50 per cent.
When the closing gong was beaten to signal the close of trading activities, the All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 1,498.54 points to 198,407.30 points from 196,908.76 points, while the market capitalisation gained N962 billion to close at N127.361 trillion compared with Thursday’s N126.399 trillion.
University Press appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N5.50, Guinness Nigeria also soared by 10.00 per cent to N385.00, Royal Exchange jumped 10.00 per cent to N1.87, May and Baker surged by 9.93 per cent to N41.50, and BUA Cement improved by 9.18 per cent to N270.00.
Conversely, RT Briscoe lost 9.17 per cent to trade at N10.40, Learn Africa depreciated by 8.33 per cent to N8.25, NGX Group crashed by 6.12 per cent to N176.50, Haldane McCall moderated by 5.78 per cent to N3.91, and AXA Mansard shed 5.63 per cent to close at N14.91.
Market participants exchanged 591.0 million shares for N35.0 billion in 53,066 deals during the session versus the 549.8 million shares valued at N44.7 billion traded in 55,465 deals in the previous session, representing a spike in the trading volume by 7.49 per cent, and a cut in the trading value and number of deals by 21.70 per cent and 4.33 per cent, respectively.
The activity chart showed that First Holdco, after the sale of 70.8 million units worth N3.5 billion, Access Holdings traded 67.2 million units valued at N1.7 billion, GTCO exchanged 33.6 million units worth N4.0 billion, Ellah Lakes transacted 27.1 million units for N329.2 million, and Sterling Holdings sold 25.2 million units worth N194.6 million.
Economy
CBN Bars Loan Defaulters from New Credit, Banking Facilities
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has moved to tighten credit discipline across the banking sector, directing all financial institutions to deny additional loans and banking facilities to large borrowers whose existing loan obligations are classified as non-performing.
The directive, issued in a circular dated March 12, 2026, was signed by Mrs Olubukola Akinwunmi, Director of Banking Supervision, and addressed to all deposit money banks operating in the country.
Under the new policy, any borrower whose loan facility is recorded as non-performing in the Credit Risk Management System (CRMS), the CBN’s centralised credit database, or flagged by any licensed private credit bureau, will be immediately ineligible for new credit.
The measure takes effect without transition, applying across all banks simultaneously.
The apex bank’s restrictions extend beyond direct lending. Affected borrowers will also be denied access to contingent banking facilities, including bankers’ confirmations, letters of credit, performance bonds, and advance payment guarantees, instruments commonly used in trade finance and large-scale commercial transactions.
Banks have additionally been directed to obtain further realisable collateral from affected obligors to adequately secure their existing exposures.
The apex bank did not specify a timeline within which this additional collateral must be obtained.
The CBN defines large-ticket obligors as borrowers whose combined exposures across all banks exceed the Single Obligor Limit, or whose outstanding obligations materially affect a bank’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) or otherwise pose systemic risks to the broader financial system.
The policy is grounded in Clause 3.2(d) of the Prudential Guidelines for Deposit Money Banks.
The identification of such obligors will be based on data captured in the CRMS and reports from licensed private credit bureaus, according to the circular.
In issuing the directive, the CBN cited the heightened risk that large non-performing obligors pose to individual banks and the wider financial system.
The regulator stated that the new framework is designed to limit contagion risks and reinforce responsible lending practices across the sector.
The move reflects a broader regulatory effort to address the rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) within Nigeria’s banking sector and to ensure that institutions with significant credit exposures to distressed borrowers are not further endangered by extending new facilities to the same counterparties.
Compliance is expected from all deposit money banks with immediate effect.
The CBN did not outline specific sanctions for non-compliance in the circular, though supervisory penalties under the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020 would ordinarily apply.
Economy
Rise in Petrol, Diesel Prices in Nigeria Caused by FG’s Failure to Plan—Peter Obi
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has blamed the federal government for the high energy costs in Nigeria.
In a post, the former Anambra State Governor said if the central government, led by President Bola Tinubu, had planned for the future, Nigerians would not be paying through their nose for premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel.
Disruption in the supply of crude oil on the global market has caused consumers to pay more for petrol and diesel in the country.
The United States and Israel waged war against Iran, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about two weeks ago in airstrikes.
This has triggered tension in the Middle East, with Iran firing missiles at its neighbours, and closing the Strait of Hormuz, a small water path between Iran and Oman, where one-fifth of global crude oil supply passes through.
Before the crisis, PMS was selling at N835 per litre and crude oil was below $90 per barrel. But oil rose above $100 per barrel, causing the price of petrol in Nigeria to hit over N1,200 per litre.
Reacting to the development, Mr Obi said Nigeria felt the shock despite not being attacked because the government failed to plan.
“Many people wonder why any adverse development in the global economy quickly impacts Nigeria. A recent example is the tension involving Iran, which led to an increase in global oil prices and, subsequently, a rise in petroleum prices in Nigeria.
“A few weeks ago, petrol was selling for less than N1,000 per litre, but today it costs over N1,200 per litre. Diesel, which was also priced below N1,000 per litre, is now over N1,500 per litre. These rapid increases illustrate how quickly external shocks can affect the Nigerian economy.
“The reason for this is straightforward: most countries, whether they are oil-producing or non-oil-producing, maintain strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against supply or price shocks. This means that when there is a disruption in the global oil market, they can release part of these reserves to stabilise supply. However, Nigeria lacks such a buffer, so the impact is felt almost immediately.
“The underlying issue is a lack of planning. Countries that engage in planning create buffers against shocks, while those that do not remain vulnerable to them. The old maxim remains true: when a country fails to plan, it has already planned to fail,” he wrote.
Earlier this week, the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, said the country’s economy was strong enough to absorb external shocks, saying the over 4 per cent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year was a testament to that.
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