Feature/OPED
Subsidy Removal: Poor Approach Worsening Shocks in Nigeria, a Comparative Study of Nigeria and India
By Peace Otonihu
The removal of fuel subsidies has been a recurring policy issue for many countries, including Nigeria and India. While both nations face similar challenges in the petroleum sector, their approaches to fuel subsidy reforms differ significantly.
In a newsletter published by Outlook Planet and updated in November 2024, India has since 2010 had a “fossil fuel subsidy policy” which has undergone several reforms since then. However, in Nigeria, the subsidy was removed through the president’s inaugural speech where he announced that “Subsidy is Gone!”.
This announcement since May 2023 has led to a surge in the price of petrol nationwide, an increase in the cost of goods and services as well as other ripple effects on the economy being a resource-dependent economy, without clear policy frameworks to mitigate the impact. In contrast, India’s gradual and research-driven approach to subsidy removal offers lessons in strategic planning and implementation that can be beneficial to consider.
The Background of Fuel Subsidies in Nigeria
A simplified definition of fuel subsidy is the portion of the total fuel price paid for by the government on behalf of its citizens. According to Zinami (2024), Fuel subsidies in Nigeria date back to the 1970s when they were introduced to reduce the burden of fuel costs on citizens.
They became institutionalized in 1977 under the Price Control Act promulgated by the military regime of Olusegun Obasanjo, which regulated prices of essential items, including fuel. Over the decades, subsidies grew to cover a significant portion of government expenditures.
By 2013, Nigeria was listed among the top 20 countries subsidizing fuel consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) as cited in (Soile & MU, 2015). Despite being one of Africa’s leading oil producers, Nigeria’s inability to maintain functional refineries forced it to rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products. This paradox has made subsidies unsustainable, leading to mounting fiscal pressures and limited development benefits.
In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural speech led to the abrupt removal of fuel subsidy triggered an immediate spike in petrol prices and a ripple effect on goods and services, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on petroleum for economic activity. A public announcement during an inaugural speech alone does not constitute a comprehensive fuel subsidy reform. India has faced challenges in the petroleum sector similar to those in Nigeria. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) 2022, India was the world’s third-largest energy consumer, following China and the United States, as of 2021.
The increasing demand for petroleum products, driven by economic growth, has been compounded by limited domestic production capacity, necessitating fuel imports. Like Nigeria, India has historically seen substantial government involvement in its petroleum sector.
In Nigeria, the most notable reform following the removal of the fuel subsidy is the reallocation of funds previously used for subsidies to sectors such as public infrastructure, education, healthcare, and job creation—areas intended to improve the lives of millions.
It is interesting to note that prior to President Tinubu’s inauguration, the Nigerian government spent approximately ₦400 billion (around $500 million) per month on subsidizing petroleum imports, as noted by Mele Kyari, the CEO of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), which is authorized to operate in Nigeria’s oil sector.
While redirecting these funds could theoretically represent a significant reform, its effectiveness remains uncertain if the impacts are not clear, and neither do they directly improve the standard of living or the cost of living of Nigerians who have to bear the brunt of subsidy removal.
For example, the 2024 budget allocated ₦1.54 trillion to the education sector, representing only 6.39% of the total budget. There was no notable increase in the education budget when compared with previous years which shows the rechannelling of fuel subsidy funds. This limited visible improvement suggests a lack of proper planning and insufficient research into the specific needs of Nigerians.
However, unlike Nigeria, India’s fuel subsidy reforms were guided by a thorough assessment of cost-benefit analyses and economic impacts, resulting in more effective outcomes for its economy. In India, fuel subsidy reforms were shaped by the work of government-appointed committees conducting extensive research and analysis.
Through these reform initiatives, India significantly reduced its fuel subsidy burden from $24.6 billion in 2013 to just $1.16 billion in 2017—a remarkable 95.28% decrease. This was achieved by deregulating the prices of LPG, DPK, and AGO, illustrating the importance of systematic and research-driven reform strategies.
India’s Fuel Subsidy Reforms: A Gradual and Comprehensive Approach
India has pursued fuel subsidy reforms through a gradual, well-planned, and research-driven process since 2010. Ranking as the third-largest energy consumer in the world after China and the United States, India faced challenges like Nigeria, such as growing demand for petroleum products, heavy government involvement in the energy sector, and limited domestic production capacity necessitating fuel imports.
To address these challenges, India formed multiple expert committees to guide subsidy reform policies:
- Rangarajan Committee Report (2006) – Recommended the use of global market prices to determine the market price for petrol and diesel in the country while limiting subsidized kerosene to families below-poverty-line (“BPL”) and increasing retail prices for LPG.
- Parikh Committee Report (2010): Advocated for complete liberalization of petrol and diesel prices at both the refinery and retail levels, targeting subsidized public distribution system (“PDS”) kerosene for households below-poverty-line with annual price increases tied to agricultural Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) growth, kerosene sold outside the subsidized public distribution system was set close to the price of diesel, annual quantity limit of six 14.2 kg cylinders on subsidized LPG for each household, and using direct cash transfers or quantity rationing for subsidized LPG.
- Nilekani Task Force Interim Report (2011) – Recommended replacing in-kind fuel and fertilizer subsidies with direct cash transfers using the Unique identification (“UID”) system to reduce fiscal costs by eliminating duplication and ghost beneficiaries.
- Kelkar Committee Report (2012) – Outlined a fiscal consolidation plan involving phased elimination of diesel subsidies over two years, full deregulation by 2014, gradual removal of LPG subsidies over three years, and a one-third reduction in politically sensitive kerosene subsidies within the same timeframe.
These reforms significantly reduced India’s fuel subsidy burden from $24.6 billion in 2013 to just $1.16 billion by 2017—a decrease of over 95%. This achievement was facilitated by deregulating LPG, kerosene, and automotive gas oil prices, adopting direct cash transfers, and targeting subsidies only to vulnerable populations.
Key Lessons for Nigeria from India’s Reforms
India’s approach underscores several key elements that Nigeria could adopt to make subsidy reforms more effective:
- Research-Based Policy Formulation: India’s reforms were guided by thorough research and committee recommendations. By contrast, Nigeria’s abrupt announcement lacked a well-defined policy framework, creating economic shockwaves without providing adequate support mechanisms for affected populations.
- Targeted Support Measures: India implemented targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations and used direct cash transfers to eliminate waste and duplication. In Nigeria, the promise to redirect subsidy savings toward social sectors like education and healthcare has not translated into visible improvements, hence, there is need for better-targeted and transparent support mechanisms.
- Gradual Phasing-Out: The gradual removal of subsidies in India allowed time for the economy to adjust. Nigeria’s sudden subsidy removal led to a surge in fuel prices and widespread economic distress. A phased approach, with well-planned timelines and support measures, could have mitigated the shock.
- Public Consultation and Transparency: India’s reforms involved extensive consultations with stakeholders, enhancing public understanding and acceptance. Nigeria’s unilateral decision-making process limited public buy-in, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.
The Way Forward for Nigeria
For Nigeria, merely redirecting funds from subsidies to infrastructure, education, and healthcare is insufficient if the impact is not measurable or transformative. Effective reform requires clear policies, transparency, and targeted initiatives to ensure that savings translate into tangible benefits. Learning from India, Nigeria should focus on:
- Enhanced transparency and accountability to track and measure the impact of redirected funds.
- Support mechanisms such as direct cash transfers or targeted subsidies to shield vulnerable populations.
- Comprehensive planning and phased implementation to minimize economic shocks.
- Stakeholder consultations to build public support and ensure policy acceptance.
Conclusion
India’s experience with fuel subsidy reforms demonstrates that effective policy changes require a structured approach involving research, planning, public consultation, and targeted social programs. While Nigeria’s recent subsidy removal represents a necessary step toward fiscal stability, the lack of a comprehensive policy framework undermines its potential benefits. In contrast, India’s reforms led to measurable improvements that directly impacted the country’s economy. Through extensive consultation, policy formulation, and research, the Indian government increased access to clean cooking solutions for the rural poor through subsidized LPG. Additionally, direct cash transfers to low-income households helped mitigate the negative effects of subsidy removal, while deregulation allowed oil companies to operate more freely, boosting revenue generation.
This contrast between India’s carefully planned, research-driven reforms and Nigeria’s fewer tangible outcomes highlights the importance of adopting a more structured approach in Nigeria. By doing so, Nigeria can achieve meaningful reforms that balance fiscal responsibility with social equity, ultimately leading to sustainable development and improved well-being for its citizens.
Peace Otonihu is a seasoned investment banking analyst at a top-tier investment bank in Africa. Her expertise lies in policy analysis, financial advisory, project and development finance, focusing on critical sectors such as oil and gas, energy, mining, transportation, and infrastructure. She is a political scientist, policy analyst, and researcher having co-authoured a research publication in a reputable journal while also exploring medium.
She is a certified chartered accountant from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), with keen interest in public policy analysis, public-private partnerships, financial advisory and developing infrastructure projects. She was also a Pioneer student of the School of Politics, Policy and Governance, an unconventional school of politics designed to produce a new generation of political leaders.
By Blaise Udunze
Daily, the world watches Nigeria through a familiar lens in what appears to be a gory situation. Especially in cases when the news headlines tell stories of farmer-herder clashes, bandit attacks, kidnappings, villages reduced to ashes or deserted by the dwellers, as thousands of Nigerians have been displaced across states such as Zamfara, Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kaduna and Nasarawa. Subliminally, this is about to become a similarly ugly occurrence in southwestern Nigeria, which is fast becoming obvious if not nipped in the bud quickly.
Recorded data have shown that bandits, Boko Haram, and others killed over 190,000 Nigerians in 17 years and displaced 3.7 million people.
A human rights organisation, the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), in its fearful revelation, has said that no fewer than 190,150 Nigerians have been killed by bandits, Boko Haram insurgents, and suspected armed herdsmen between July 2009 and March 19, 2026, as this calls for concern.
The dominant explanations often point to ethnic tensions, religious divisions, climate change, shrinking grazing routes or weak security institutions. No doubt, those factors are certainly part of Nigeria’s complex security crisis. Yet another question deserves serious examination.
What if, in some locations, the violence is also serving another purpose? What if some of the territories experiencing repeated displacement are the same places sitting atop some of Nigeria’s most valuable mineral deposits? More importantly, if such a pattern exists, who benefits when communities disappear?
Of a truth, these questions are uncomfortable, but undeniably they deserve careful investigation rather than dismissal.
For ages, Nigeria has been naturally endowed, and it is estimated to be rich in enormous significant reserves of gold, lithium, uranium, tin, columbite and other strategic minerals increasingly sought after in the global transition to clean energy technologies. As international demand for battery minerals continues to rise, these resources have become far more valuable than they were only a decade ago.
If one overlays publicly available geological information with maps showing persistent violence, some observers argue that striking geographical overlaps appear in several regions. Such overlaps alone cannot establish causation. Correlation is not proof of conspiracy. However, they raise questions worthy of independent scrutiny.
One issue attracting increasing attention and adequately yearns for answer is whether prolonged insecurity may inadvertently or deliberately create conditions that make mineral extraction easier.
Under Nigeria’s Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act 2007, mineral resources belong to the Federal Government, while mining rights are granted through licences and leases. Community engagement and land access are expected to form part of the licensing process, although implementation varies depending on circumstances. This raises an important policy question.
What happens when the communities expected to participate in those processes have already fled because of violence?
Displacement changes the dynamics of land ownership, consent and access. While no evidence automatically proves that attacks are orchestrated to facilitate mining, the sequence of violence followed by renewed commercial activity in some locations deserves closer examination by regulators, lawmakers and investigative journalists.
In conflict studies, researchers have long observed that wars often generate economic winners alongside humanitarian losers. Could elements of Nigeria’s insecurity also be producing economic beneficiaries?
Reports over the years have documented concerns about illegal mining operations across parts of northern Nigeria. Government agencies themselves have repeatedly acknowledged that criminal networks profit from the country’s vast mineral wealth. The unresolved question is whether isolated criminality has, in some instances, evolved into more sophisticated alliances involving political influence, financial interests and international supply chains. If so, the implications extend far beyond Nigeria.
Invariably, it is clearly known that lithium has become one of the world’s most strategic commodities, powering electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage systems. Gold has always remained one of the safest global investment assets during periods of uncertainty. Meanwhile, it is well confirmed that the global appetite for these minerals creates enormous financial incentives.
Suppose violent displacement reduces resistance to extraction. Suppose shell companies subsequently acquire mining interests. Suppose minerals then leave Nigeria through legitimate-looking export documentation while their true value remains understated.
These scenarios remain allegations unless supported by verifiable evidence. Yet they outline a framework that investigators may wish to test rather than ignore. Financial crime experts frequently identify trade mis-invoicing as one of the most common methods of illicit financial flows worldwide.
Could Nigeria’s solid minerals sector be vulnerable to similar practices? If valuable lithium ore is deliberately but inaccurately described as lower-value material on export documents, substantial wealth could potentially leave the country without reflecting its true market value. Likewise, if unrefined gold exits through privileged channels with limited scrutiny, questions naturally arise about oversight, transparency and accountability over criminal activities which have continued to stunt and disrupt the country’s socio-economic growth and at the same time cause carnage.
Such possibilities are not accusations against any particular institution or company. Rather, they illustrate why stronger monitoring systems are increasingly essential. Another question concerns logistics.
With the high level of criminal activities, industrial mining requires heavy machinery, diesel supplies, transportation networks and specialised personnel. These are not operations that can remain invisible indefinitely.
If certain territories are genuinely too dangerous for security agencies, how do industrial-scale extraction activities reportedly continue in some remote locations? If they do, who protects those operations? Who authorises their movement? Who verifies what is extracted? Who ensures royalties and export revenues reach public coffers? These are governance questions that demand institutional answers.
Equally important is the international dimension. Minerals extracted in Nigeria ultimately enter global supply chains. Gold may pass through international refining hubs before entering financial markets. Lithium may become part of battery manufacturing destined for electric vehicles, which are being sold across Europe, North America and Asia.
One known fact is that consumers purchasing products containing these minerals rarely know the full story of where they originated.
Increasingly, however, investors and governments are demanding ethical sourcing standards that trace minerals from extraction to final manufacture.
A critical factor that must be taken into cognisance is that if insecurity is creating opportunities for illegal or unethical extraction anywhere in the world, multinational companies have responsibilities alongside national governments, of which the onus falls on the Nigerian government.
Transparency cannot stop at the mine gate. Nor should accountability end at national borders. Another issue requiring attention concerns beneficial ownership.
Across many jurisdictions, shell companies can obscure the identities of individuals ultimately controlling commercial assets. If politically exposed persons or powerful business interests are hidden behind complex corporate structures registered offshore, identifying beneficiaries becomes significantly more difficult. This challenge is hardly unique to Nigeria.
Findings showed that from Latin America to Central Africa and Southeast Asia, resistant corporate networks have frequently complicated efforts to combat corruption and illicit resource extraction. That is precisely why open corporate registries, beneficial ownership databases and transparent mining licence disclosures are becoming global governance priorities. For Nigeria, the stakes could hardly be higher.
The country stands at the centre of the world’s emerging critical minerals economy. The Nigerian government can’t feign ignorance of the fact that, when handled transparently, these resources could finance infrastructure, education, healthcare, and industrial development for generations.
In no way would the government claim not knowing that when handled poorly, they risk becoming another chapter in the well-documented “resource curse,” where extraordinary natural wealth coincides with persistent poverty, insecurity and institutional weakness.
The ultimate challenge, therefore, is not simply about mining. It is about governance. It is about whether public institutions possess both the independence and capacity to ensure that natural resources benefit citizens rather than narrow interests. It is about whether conflict zones receive genuine peacebuilding efforts instead of becoming forgotten frontiers. And it is about whether international markets demand accountability with the same enthusiasm they demand raw materials.
None of these questions should be answered through speculation. They require rigorous investigations, forensic financial analysis, satellite imagery, mining license audits, customs records, beneficial ownership disclosures and courageous journalism.
They require governments willing to open their books. They require international cooperation capable of tracing money across borders. Most importantly, they require asking questions that have too often remained unasked.
Perhaps Nigeria’s security crisis is exactly what it appears to be: a tragic convergence of historical grievances, weak institutions, criminality and environmental pressures. Or perhaps, in some places, another layer of economic incentive deserves closer scrutiny.
Until those questions are thoroughly investigated, one possibility will continue to linger. Maybe the world’s attention has been fixed on the blood spilt above ground, while too little attention has been paid to the extraordinary wealth lying beneath it.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
What Does Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves Milestone Mean if Most New Foreign Money Can Leave Quickly?
Nigeria’s foreign reserves have climbed to about $51 billion, a decade-plus high, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). EBC Financial Group (EBC) notes that this reflects stronger investor confidence, but the second half may show whether it holds, as the build rests on three cyclical drivers: oil earnings, short-term foreign money and a narrowing official-to-street naira gap.
Reserves rose from about $32 billion in April 2024, during a dollar shortage, to about $51 billion now, near the CBN’s target. Much came from two cyclical sources, strong oil earnings and money chasing high-yielding naira assets, so EBC expects the pace to slow or reverse. Fitch Ratings, a major international credit rating agency, expects a marginal decline to about $47 billion by the end of 2026, citing higher spending and external pressures.
David Precious, Senior Market Analyst at EBC Financial Group, said, “Nigeria’s reserve build is real but may not be durable yet, because nearly all of the new money is the kind that can leave quickly. Of the $10.37 billion that came in over the first quarter, the overwhelming majority was short-term portfolio funds rather than long-term investment, so a shift in oil prices, global interest rates or confidence in the naira might pull a large part of it straight back out.”
Most New Money Can Still Leave Quickly
The composition of the foreign inflows explains the caution over how long the build can last. The country attracted $10.37 billion in foreign investment in the first quarter of 2026, up 83.83 per cent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Of that, $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent, was portfolio money, largely short-term naira debt such as Treasury bills that investors can sell at the next auction, while foreign direct investment, the long-term kind that builds factories and jobs, was $135.08 million, or 1.30 per cent. Put simply, of each dollar coming in, about 95 cents can leave quickly, and barely one cent stays.
That money supports reserves while it stays. Dollars brought in to buy naira assets add to market supply, letting the CBN hold more reserves and steady the naira. It leaves when conditions change. Nigeria earns most of its export dollars from oil and gas, so lower oil prices mean fewer dollars, and as a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it cannot simply produce more, output capped by quota and reduced by theft and ageing fields. Higher global interest rates draw money toward safer returns abroad, and a weakening naira prompts investors to sell early. When oil fell in 2016 and 2020, foreign investors withdrew and could not convert naira to dollars as supply dried up, leaving the CBN to clear more than $7 billion in trapped obligations into 2024.
The Oil Boost is No Longer Certain
Oil looked like a dependable source of the dollars behind the reserves only months ago. Earlier in 2026, concern over disruption around the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude prices, and stronger receipts flowed in, with crude oil export earnings of $8.11 billion in the first quarter in the CBN’s balance-of-payments data. That support is now easing. The tension has subsided, and Brent traded near $72 on June 29, down about 24 per cent over the month, back to pre-conflict levels. With the price boost gone and output constrained, reserves are more exposed, leaning on non-oil earnings and investor patience rather than oil.
The Naira Still Trades at Two Prices
The naira has traded at two prices, an official rate and a higher parallel-market rate, and closing that gap into one trusted price is what many investors might watch most. Before committing funds, they may want assurance they can convert naira to dollars at a fair rate when they exit, and a wide gap revives the fear of being trapped that lingers from earlier shortages. The gap has narrowed to roughly N20 to N30, with the CBN’s official rate near N1,380 per dollar on June 26 against parallel-market quotes around N1,400. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2026 Article IV review urged Nigeria to depend less on this fast-moving portfolio money and to keep phasing out its multiple exchange-rate practices. The CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual, in force from 1 June, is intended to make the market clearer, though such rules build confidence only once investors can freely trade dollars at the posted rate.
What could Make the Build Durable
A few signs that may show the build turning durable include a smaller gap between the official and street naira rates, more long-term foreign investment, and steadier oil earnings. A gap that stays small, now roughly N20 to N30, may mean investors trust the official rate and no longer need the street market. A clear rise in foreign direct investment, only $135 million last quarter against $9.86 billion of short-term money, might mean lasting capital is replacing funds that can leave at the next auction. Oil earnings that hold up, rather than sliding from the low $70s, should help keep reserves steady, since oil and gas bring in most of Nigeria’s export dollars.
“Reserves built on money chasing high yields can fall as fast as they rose, as they did after the last two oil shocks, when investors left, and the CBN spent years clearing a foreign-exchange backlog,” Precious added. “What holds through a downturn is slower money, direct investment, steady oil and non-oil export earnings and one credible naira rate, and that is the shift Nigeria has yet to make.”
By Olajumoke Bello
Across Nigeria, small and medium enterprises remain the backbone of economic activity. They drive trade, create jobs, and sustain millions of livelihoods. Yet, despite their importance, many SMEs continue to operate below their full potential due to persistent structural challenges.
Access to finance remains one of the most cited constraints. However, the issue today goes beyond the availability of capital. Many businesses struggle with financial readiness, weak documentation, and limited understanding of what lenders require. This often leads to missed opportunities, even when funding options exist.
At the same time, SMEs face gaps in market access and visibility. Business owners operate in highly localised environments, with limited exposure to broader networks that can unlock partnerships, new markets, and growth opportunities. This isolation can constrain scalability and reduce long-term competitiveness.
Equally important is the capability gap. Many entrepreneurs grow through resilience and experience but lack structured knowledge on critical areas such as financial management, export readiness, and digital adoption. Without this, even well-capitalised businesses can struggle to sustain growth.
These challenges point to a clear need for a more practical and integrated approach to SME support. It is no longer sufficient to offer standalone solutions. SMEs require ecosystems that combine knowledge, access, and direct engagement in ways that reflect how they actually operate.
A key shift is the move from centralised interventions to localised engagement. SMEs are deeply influenced by their immediate environments, whether markets, industrial clusters, or trade corridors. Solutions must therefore be brought closer to where these businesses function, allowing for more relevant support and stronger relationships.
Another important shift is from awareness to action. Business owners do not only need information; they need insights that they can apply immediately. This includes understanding how to structure their finances, how to access trade opportunities, and how to connect with the right partners to scale their operations.
There is also a growing need for continuity. Many SME-focused initiatives deliver strong initial impact but lack follow-through. For support to be effective, it must extend beyond one-off engagements into sustained relationships, with clear pathways for onboarding, advisory, and growth.
For financial institutions, this presents both responsibility and an opportunity. Supporting SMEs now requires moving beyond transactional banking to deeper partnership models. It requires understanding businesses at a granular level and co-creating solutions that evolve with their needs.
At Stanbic IBTC, this perspective continues to shape our approach to SME development. Our focus is on delivering practical support that translates into real business outcomes, helping enterprises grow, compete, and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
As part of this commitment, we are extending our SME engagement to the regions through the Nigeria Business Summit Regional Tour. The tour will take structured, on-ground activations into key commercial hubs, where SMEs can access funding guidance, trade insights, advisory support, and direct engagement with financial experts.
The regional tour will take place across five strategic locations, bringing these solutions closer to business owners in Aba, Onitsha, Ibadan and Kano.
This approach reflects an important principle. When support moves closer to businesses and when solutions are delivered in ways that are practical and continuous, SMEs are better positioned to grow sustainably. In turn, this strengthens not only individual enterprises but the broader economy.
Olajumoke Bello is the Head of Enterprise Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank
