Economy
Factors Contributing to Stock Market Rally

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The recent rally in the equity market has opened a window for the quoted companies to raise equity capital to finance their expansion projects. The bearish trends that dominated the equity market in the last few years have caused many companies to abandon the market as a source of raising long-term capital.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSEASI), which measures the performance of the equity market, appreciated by 20% between March 06, 2017 and May 31, 2017. A large proportion of this gain occurred in the last four weeks, as the Index appreciated by 15.13% between April 26 and May 31, 2017.
The Year-to-Date (YTD) return on the NSEASI as at May 31, 2017 stood at 9.76%. Although the return on the NSEASI is lower than the inflation rate of 17.24% as at April 2017 and the average YTD yield of 22.95% on the 364-Day Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB), the returns on most of the highly capitalised stocks are higher than the inflation rate and the average yield on the 364-Day NTB.
The factors responsible for the appreciation in the equity market include the improvement in the Q1, 2017 results of quoted companies compared with the corresponding period of last year and the prospect of better performance in subsequent quarters.
Other factors include the increase in the supply of foreign exchange, improved crude oil production and price, improved investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and the financial market, increase in the participation of both the local and foreign investors in the markets and the boost to the economy by the passage of the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB).
The sectoral analysis of performance of the equity market in the first five months of the year 2017 shows that the Banking sub-sector recorded the best performance, followed by the Insurance, Industrial and Consumer Goods sub-sectors.
The NSE Banking Index gained by 30.70% as at May 31, 2017; the NSE Insurance Index gained 9.77%; the NSE Industrial Index gained 9.15%, while the NSE Consumer Goods Index gained 2.97%.
Meanwhile, the NSE Oil and Gas Index lost 5.45% of its value in the period under review. As at May 31, 2017 the share price of Oando recorded a strong return of 80%, mainly due to the news of the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to manage the Port Harcourt Refinery.
Stanbic IBTC Holdings, UBA, GT Bank, Access Bank, and Zenith Bank all recorded impressive appreciation in their share prices on the strength of the impressive Q1 2017 results the banks announced. Although the profitability of FBN Holdings dropped in Q1 2017 compared with Q1 2016, the ongoing clean-up of its nonperforming assets sends a positive signal that the worst may be over. Transnational Corporation of Nigeria’s share price also recorded impressive appreciation as a result of the favourable Q1 2017 result the company announced.
There are indications that the company will benefit from the FGN intervention fund for the power sector.
The lull in the equity market in the last few years has paralysed equity capital raising exercise in the capital market. Quoted companies opted for debt capital to finance their expansion plans even in situations where the debt capital option was not the most appropriate. Some companies also sourced capital from abroad despite the exchange rate risk.
The recent economic challenges and the high interest rate on debt securities in Nigeria have imposed limitations on companies’ ability to issue debt capital to fund expansion. As the economy is gradually exiting the current recession, there would be a need for companies to expand production capacities.
Thus, the current rally in the equity capital market offers a great incentive for quoted companies to access the market to raise the needed equity capital for their expansion projects. As activities increase in the primary market segment of the equity market, the demand for debt capital may drop.
Consequently, we expect the interest rate and yields on the fixed income securities to drop.
Source: FSDH Research
Economy
NECA DG Warns of Growing Pressure on Businesses, Households
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Director General of the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, has run to the rooftop to warn of the negative impact of rising crude oil prices on businesses and households in the country.
In a statement on Monday, he said the Middle East crisis was pushing up domestic energy costs, placing pressure on businesses and eroding the purchasing power of citizens, warning that without urgent intervention, the situation could escalate.
According to him, fuel prices have risen sharply in recent days, with petrol exceeding N1,300 per litre in some locations and diesel approaching N1,800 per litre, reflecting the impact of global oil price movements.
He stressed that energy costs sit at the heart of Nigeria’s economy, and energy is the engine of production and distribution, noting that businesses, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, are already under significant pressure. “What we are witnessing is Nigeria’s oil paradox. Rising crude oil prices are pushing up domestic energy costs, squeezing businesses and worsening the cost of living for citizens.
“Once fuel prices rise, the effects are immediate and widespread: transport costs increase, food prices rise, and the overall cost of doing business escalates.
“For many firms that rely on diesel for operations, current price levels are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Profit margins are shrinking, and businesses are being forced to either pass on costs or scale down operations,” Mr Oyerinde stated.
The NECA DG further noted that global oil prices have surged amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude rising above $110 per barrel, intensifying cost pressures across energy markets.
He clarified that while the Middle East conflict has contributed to the rise in oil prices, the impact is exposing deeper structural weaknesses, underinvestment, weak infrastructure, and inefficiencies in Nigeria’s energy value chain.
“This situation is not only driven by external factors, but it is also reflecting ongoing constraints within the energy value chain, including supply inefficiencies and infrastructure limitations,” he disclosed.
“The government must act swiftly to ease supply constraints, stabilise prices, and provide targeted relief to critical sectors, he declared, emphasising that, “If this trend continues unchecked, we risk business closures, job losses, and a deeper cost-of-living crisis.”
On the long-term outlook, Mr Oyerinde emphasised the need for structural reforms. Nigeria’s resilience will not be determined by oil prices, but by how effectively we manage them. This is a moment to strengthen institutions, improve transparency, and invest in sustainable energy solutions.
He concluded with a caution that if properly managed, “this could strengthen our economy. If not, the gains from rising oil prices will be completely eroded by inflation and economic hardship.”
Economy
NAICOM Rules Out Extension of July 31 Recapitalisation Deadline
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has stressed that it has no intention of extending the deadline of the ongoing insurance recapitalisation exercise fixed for July 31, 2026.
The Commissioner for Insurance, Mr Olusegun Omosehin, at a high-level media briefing in Lagos, emphasised that “The 31 July deadline is sacrosanct.”
Mr Omosehin rationalised that NAICOM said it was not worried by the sluggishness of some underwriting companies towards the exercise.
“It is embedded in the law, and as a regulator, we do not have the powers to alter a date set by an Act of the National Assembly,” he explained, noting that the timeline is a statutory requirement under the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act of 2025.
“We would not be drawn into a last-minute rush or entertain pleas for extensions,” Mr Omosehin warned, adding that any adjustment to the schedule would require a formal amendment of the Act by the National Assembly and subsequent presidential assent, a path he stated the commission is not prepared to take.
He further noted that while 20 insurance companies have officially stepped forward to begin their capital verification process, the level of urgency across the board does not match the requirements of the law.
“We want a stronger, more resilient industry that can support Nigeria’s target of a $1tn economy,” the Commissioner added, stressing that the ultimate goal is not just capital but the capability to underwrite large risks and protect policyholders.
“Capital alone is not the goal; it is about the capability to underwrite large risks,” he reiterated, while urging operators who may lack the “stand-alone stamina” to meet the new requirements to consider mergers and acquisitions immediately rather than waiting.
“We warn against ‘emergency marriages’ concluded at the eleventh hour, as such ad hoc arrangements often lead to lingering liabilities and post-merger integration crises,” Mr Omosehin said.
The NAICOM chief also confirmed that the regulator is currently scanning all operating firms and will soon make the results of this regulatory assessment public.
While re-emphasising the July 31 deadline, he warned that all funds raised must be deposited in designated escrow accounts.
Economy
BudgIT Raises Alarm Over Poor Transparency in Nigeria’s Local Government Budgets
By Adedapo Adesanya
Governance transparency platform, BudgIT, has expressed worry that only 10 states provided publicly accessible budget information for their Local Government Areas (LGAs).
The report, titled The Missing Tier: Mapping Local Government Budget Transparency in Nigeria, found that while six states offer partial or outdated disclosures, as many as 18 states do not publish any LGA budget data at all.
Despite the existence of these budgets at council secretariats nationwide, BudgIT noted that access remains largely restricted, particularly online.
“For most of Nigeria’s 774 local governments, those budgets are not publicly accessible online,” the report stated.
Among the states assessed, Ekiti emerged as the top performer, with a comprehensive system that includes detailed, up-to-date budget documentation for its councils.
Other states identified as making LGA budget information available include Ebonyi, Osun, Kebbi, Kogi, Enugu, Kaduna and Yobe.
However, the report cautioned that even among these states, data quality remains inconsistent, with several budgets either incomplete, outdated, or poorly structured.
BudgIT highlighted notable examples of improved accountability practices.
Ekiti State, for instance, publishes individual 2026 budgets for all its LGAs and LCDAs, accompanied by signed documents, consultation records, and standardised financial templates.
Cross River State also stood out for releasing individual council budgets, audited accounts, and quarterly performance reports.
Similarly, Borno State was commended for maintaining a consolidated 2025 budget alongside supporting financial documents, suggesting a structured and functional reporting system.
The report identified six states with limited transparency, providing only fragmented or outdated information.
Kano State, for example, publishes quarterly performance reports but lacks full-year approved budgets.
In Imo State, no LGA budgets were found, although a financial statement from the Accountant-General was available.
Ondo State reportedly released documents for only a portion of its LGAs, while Anambra published an appropriation law without detailed breakdowns. Ogun State, meanwhile, only provided data for 2024.
BudgIT further disclosed that a large number of states fail entirely to make LGA budgets public.
These include Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Delta, Edo, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara.
According to the organisation, the issue is not the absence of budget documents but the lack of public access to them.
“Yet for most of Nigeria’s 774 local governments, those budgets are not publicly accessible online,” the civic tech firm said.
BudgIT stressed that improving transparency at the local government level does not require complex reforms but rather a deliberate policy decision.
“Since state governments already publish their own budgets online, extending the same standard to local councils is neither complex nor costly; it is a matter of institutional choice,” the organisation said.
It added, “This choice is a critical one; Nigeria’s post-1999 experience with democracy has not had Local Governments with significant autonomy. Be that as it may, LGAs still have the opportunity to make public what they budget, what they spend and what they earn.”
Highlighting the benefits of openness, the report noted that transparency enables citizens to track public spending and hold officials accountable.
“Where they are withheld, accountability stops at the state level, leaving the tier closest to citizens financially opaque,” BudgIT said.
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