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Economy

FBNQuest Sees Tinubu Implementing Reforms to Stimulate Economic Growth, Investment

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bola Tinubu economic growth

By Dipo Olowookere

With the presidential election concluded and Mr Bola Tinubu declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the winner, FBNQuest believes that the president-elect will likely implement some reforms that will trigger economic growth and investment in the second half of the year.

President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to hand over power to his successor on May 29, 2023, after serving for eight years in two terms of four years each.

At the presidential poll held on Saturday, February 25, 2023, Mr Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) won by over 8 million votes and was trailed by Mr Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).

The two runners-up have challenged the outcome of the exercise, both laying claims to the top position.

In its outlook for 2023, FBNQuest, the unified brand identity for the merchant banking and asset management businesses of FBN Holdings Plc, through one of its top shots, Mr Tunde Abidoye, fears that, “Nigeria’s new president faces several challenges, including the fiscal pressures related to fuel subsidies, a huge budget deficit, difficulties with forex liquidity and low productivity in the oil sector.”

“Nevertheless, we expect a new manager’s bounce for the economy that will support the moderate rise in equities while interest rates are expected to remain elevated,” Mr Abidoye, the Head of Research, Macroeconomics and Fixed Income at FBNQuest, added.

The firm stated that based on its research, Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.2 per cent this year, marginally higher than 3.1 per cent in 2022.

Concerning non-oil sector growth, the report pointed out that non-oil GDP growth had averaged 4.7 per cent y/y over the past eight quarters up to the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with 0.4 per cent in the previous eight quarters.

More recently, the services sectors, which accounted for around 56 per cent of the economy in Q4 ‘22, expanded by 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

FBNQuest forecasts another positive year for equities in 2023, projecting gains of 15 per cent amid a slow first half and relatively strong performance in the second half of the year. In the fixed-income market, FBNQuest expects market yields to remain elevated through Q1 2023 and most of the rest of the year.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

Economy

Nigeria Plans New Tax Incentives to Boost Agriculture, Energy Investments

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian government is planning to offer tax incentives to firms investing in key sectors such as agriculture and energy to boost projected growth.

This is part of a new scheme known as the Economic Development Incentive (EDI), which will address long-standing inefficiencies in the current Pioneer Status Incentive (PSI).

The proposed investment-driven incentive framework is designed to stimulate real economic activity by tying tax relief directly to verifiable investments and part of the country’s ongoing tax reform efforts.

The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed this in a keynote address at BusinessDay’s Policy Intervention Series held on Tuesday, April 22 in Lagos.

He said a review of the PSI revealed structural flaws that have undermined its effectiveness.

“Once granted a pioneer status, companies may import goods classified as pioneer products tax-free, effectively allowing them to operate without tax obligations—even with minimal value addition to the economy,” he said.

The incentives will mainly be in the form of a multiyear tax credit that companies can use to reduce what they owe the government, Mr Oyedele further explained.

He said investments in sectors including agriculture, energy and manufacturing will enjoy the tax credit based on a prescribed minimum amount of investment for a period ranging from 10 to 20 years.

Mr Oyedele also reiterated that the country has initiated reforms to boost tax revenue as a share of gross domestic product to 18 per cent by 2027 from 13.6 per cent in 2024, adding these proposals seek to drive growth in priority sectors of the economy.

Also, investors in utility projects like power, waterways and ports will have to invest at least N200 billion to qualify for the tax credit.

He explained that if a company invests N10 billion in Year 1, it earns a N500 million tax credit each year for five years and if an additional N5 billion is invested in Year 2, that new investment begins its own five-year 5 per cent cycle—N250 million annually until Year 6 and if the company continues investing progressively, each round of investment starts a new five-year cycle of tax credits, potentially extending the benefit period up to 10 years.

The tax maven further stated that if a business has a N15 million tax liability in a given year and applies N25 million in tax credits, its liability is wiped out entirely, with the N10 million balance rolled over to subsequent years and that if a company fails to follow through on its investment plan or halts capital deployment, unused credits are forfeited and this accountability mechanism ensures that only consistent and credible investments are rewarded.

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Economy

Unlisted Securities Exchange Slips 0.35% Post-Easter Break

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange slid by 0.35 per cent on Tuesday, April 22 after the return from the Easter break, with the market capitalisation falling by N6.79 billion to N1.917 trillion from the N1.924 trillion recorded last Thursday, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declining by 11.60 points to 3,274.78 points from the previous session’s 3,286.38 points.

Yesterday, the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 60 Kobo to close at N21.50 per unit versus the preceding session’s N22.10 per unit and Geo-Fluids Plc lost 18 Kobo to end at N1.62 per share, in contrast to last Thursday’s N1.80 per share.

On the flip side, the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 16 Kobo to quote at N37.80 per unit versus the previous trading day’s N37.64 per unit.

During the session, there was a 40.5 per cent increase in the volume of securities transacted to 174,634 units from the 124,266 units traded in the previous trading day, but the value of transactions slumped by 43.9 per cent to N2.86 million from N5.1 million, and the number of deals dropped by 48.4 per cent to 16 deals from 31 deals.

At the close of business, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 153.6 million units for N4.9 billion, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71.2 million units valued at N24.2 million.

Also, Okitipupa Plc remained the most valued stock on a year-to-date with the sale of 153.6 million valued at N4.9 billion, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with a turnover of 14.8 million units worth N572.0 million and Impresit Bakolori Plc with a turnover of 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million.

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Economy

Naira Crumbles to N1,603/$1 at Official Market

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Naira-Dollar exchange rate gap

By Adedapo Adesanya

It was a bad day for the Naira on Tuesday, April 22 as its value plummeted against the United States Dollar by N3.23 or 0.2 per cent at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM).

It was the first trading session in the official market after the long Easter Break which started last Friday.

The Nigerian Naira was exchanged with the greenback yesterday at N1,603.16/$1, in contrast to the preceding trading day’s rate of N1,599.93/$1.

However, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and the Euro in the spot market at N2,120.24/£1 and N1,817.69/€1, respectively.

At the parallel market, the Naira appreciated against the US Dollar during the session by N10 to sell for N1,610/$1 compared with the previous trading session’s N1,620/$1.

In the cryptocurrency market, most of the tokens improved on Tuesday, buoyed by renewed investor optimism and fresh hopes of an ease in US-China trade tensions.

Earlier on Tuesday, remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reportedly told investors at a closed-door JPMorgan event that the tariff standoff with China was unsustainable.

Mr Bessent said de-escalation would come “in the very near future,” characterizing current conditions as a “trade embargo.” However, he cautioned that a more comprehensive deal between the two nations could take even years.

Then President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters in the White House later, said that US tariffs on China “will come down substantially” from the current 145 per cent level, allaying concerns of a spiraling trade war.

Ethereum (ETH) jumped by 10.6 per cent to $1,784.93, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 10.3 per cent to $0.1812, Cardano (ADA) added 9.9 per cent to trade at $0.6971, and Solana (SOL) gained 7.9 per cent to close at $151.25.

Further, Ripple (XRP) grew by 7.5 per cent to $2.25, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded by 6.2 per cent to $93,822.95, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 5.8 per cent to $84.22, and Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 2.3 per cent to $617.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.

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