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Economy

FG Projects 4.2% GDP Growth, 13% Inflation Rate in 2022

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has projected a rise of 4.2 per cent in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 and a decline in the inflation rate to 13 per cent.

The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, gave these projections at the public consultation on the Draft 2022 to 2024 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTFF/FSP) on Thursday.

Mrs Ahmed said the GDP projected in 2021, to close at three per cent, had been adjusted downwards to close at 2.5 per cent.

“In 2022, we are expecting an uptake to 4.2 per cent, then a dip to 2.3 per cent in 2023 and up to 3.3 per cent in 2024,” she said.

The Minister further said the nominal GDP projected for 2022 is N184.38 trillion, up from N168.6 trillion in 2021, and then to N201 trillion in 2023 and N222 trillion in 2024.

She also said the inflation rate is expected to drop slightly to 13 per cent in 2022 from 15 per cent in 2021, noting that the increase in inflation was due to the exchange rate.

“Inflation rate, which was planned for 11.95 per cent in 2021, has been reflected in reality because the exchange rate is high. The average we have so far is 15 per cent.

“We are expecting 2022 to go down slightly to 13 per cent, then 11 per cent in 2023 and 10 per cent in 2024,” Mrs Ahmed stated.

She, however, said the federal government has put the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate Fixing (NAFEX) rate of N410.15 to one US dollar for 2022 to 2024.

“The exchange rate of the Naira to the dollar, which was N379 in the 2021 budget, has been adjusted to the NAFEX rate of N410.15 to one US dollar.

“We are assuming, for now, the same rate for 2022, 2023 and 2024,” the Minister added.

Furthermore, the Finance Minister took an overview of the federation and fiscal outcomes for the Federation and Value Added Tax (VAT) Pool Accounts Distributable for January to May.

She said the amount available for distribution from the Federation Account was N2.78 trillion.

“Of this amount, the federal government received N998.57 billion, while the states and local governments received N506.59 billion and N390.48 billion respectively from the main pool account.

“Federal, state and local governments received N132.70 billion, N442.33 billion and N309.63 billion respectively from the VAT pool account,” Mrs Ahmed disclosed.

Also, the Minister said the gross oil and gas revenue was projected at N5.19 trillion for January to May.

“As of May, N1.49 trillion was realised out of the prorated sum of N2.16 trillion. This represents 69 per cent performance.

“Oil and gas deductions were N194.31 billion (or 45.8 per cent) more than the budget.

“This is mainly attributable to petroleum subsidy costs which were not provided for in the 2021 budget.

“After netting out deductions (including 13 per cent derivation) net oil and gas revenue inflows to the Federation Account amounted to N872.16 billion,” she said.

The Minister noted that the inflow was N864.20 billion or 49.8 per cent less than the projection as of May.

Giving an update on the revenue performance of 2021 budget implementation for January to May, Mrs Ahmed said the federal government’s retained revenue was N1.84 trillion, 67 per cent of the pro-rata target.

She said the share of oil revenues was N289.61 billion, which represented 50 per cent performance, adding that non-oil tax revenues totalled N618.76 trillion, 99.7 per cent of pro-rata.

“Companies Income Tax (CIT) and VAT collections were ahead of the budget targets with N290.90 billion and N123.85 billion, representing 102 per cent and 125 per cent respectively of the pro-rata targets for the period.

“Customs collections was N204.0 billion (86 per cent of target),” she said, noting that other revenues amounted to N762.70 billion, of which independent revenues were N487.01 billion.

On the expenditure side, the Minister said N4.86 trillion, representing 92.7 per cent of the prorated budget had been spent, stating that, “This excludes GOEs’ and project-tied debt expenditures.”

She noted that out of the expenditure, N1.80 trillion was for debt service representing 37 per cent of the federal government’s expenditure and N1.50 trillion for personnel costs, including Pensions, representing 31 per cent of the federal government’s revenues.

The Minister further said that as of May, N973.13 billion had been released for capital expenditure.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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trade value

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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