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Economy

Fitch Affirms Lagos at ‘B+’; Outlook Negative

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the world’s leading rating agencies, Fitch Ratings, has affirmed Lagos State’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘B+’ with Negative Outlook and Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR at ‘B’.

The National Long-Term Rating has been affirmed at ‘AA+(nga)’, with a Stable Outlook. The ratings on the state’s MTN programme as well as senior unsecured bonds have also been affirmed at ‘B+’.

According Fitch in a statement issued on Friday, the affirmation reflects the state’s weak socio-economic indicators by international standards.

It also reflects Fitch’s expectations of resilient operating performance in the medium term adequate transparency compared with national standards and satisfactory debt metrics. The Negative Outlook reflects that of Nigeria (‘B+’/Negative).

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Fiscal Performance: Lagos benefits from a diversified revenue structure, and especially from strong internally generated revenues (IGR), which we expect to support our forecast of an operating margin of around 50% over the medium term.

This, in tandem with the administration’s commitment to keep cost growth under double-digit inflation, should mitigate pressure from a potential decline in oil-related state statutory allocations from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Management: After a 20% drop in 2015, Fitch expects political continuity following last elections to boost capex over the medium term up to an annual average of NGN450bn over 2017-2019, mostly focused on transportation, water, health, education and social protection. We expect the administration’s efforts to improve transparency and accountability, together with a larger recourse to public-private partnerships, will attract foreign investments and, ultimately, sustain the state’s revenue.

Debt and Liquidity: Lagos’ debt will grow over the medium term up to NGN1trn or over 150% of tax revenues, driven by a demanding capex programme and the negative effect of the Naira devaluation. Fitch expects debt sustainability to remain adequate, with a pay-back (debt-to-current balance) ratio of around three years. Liquidity, averaging NGN100bn over the medium term and equivalent to approximately 1x annual debt service requirements, should not be a risk.

Economy; Despite its weak socio-economic indicators by international standards, Lagos is considered Nigeria’s economic powerhouse as its GDP accounts for 20%-25% of national GDP. Domestic production is fuelled by its diversified economy, with services, construction, transport and industry making up 80% of the local economy. Given its limited reliance on oil- related activities, Fitch believes that Lagos’ socio-economic indicators will further improve as we forecast local GDP growth to outperform national real GDP growth, at 4.5%-5.5% in 2016-2017.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

A downgrade of the sovereign’s ratings would lead to a corresponding action on Lagos’ IDRs. In the absence of a sovereign downgrade, an operating margin declining towards 30%, unfavourable changes in the national tax policy, debt rising beyond Fitch’s expectations over the medium term and economic instability, even at the local level, could lead to a downgrade.

A sovereign upgrade may be reflected in Lagos’ ratings, provided that budgetary improvements reduce debt levels to 1x the budget size. Further improvement of the local economy giving additional boost to IGR would also be positive for the ratings.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

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NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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