Economy
Fitch Sees Nigeria’s External Debt at $5.2bn, Maintains Stable Outlook
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.
The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.
The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.
The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.
The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.
Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”
It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.
However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.
“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.
The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.
Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.
“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.
It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.
However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.
Economy
Nigeria to Open 2025 Oil Licensing Round December 1
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced the commencement of the 2025 Licensing Round, effective December 1.
The commission’s chief executive, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, made the announcement at the NUPRC’s Project 1MMBOPD Additional Production Investment Forum in London on Tuesday.
In a statement issued today, the NUPRC Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Mr Eniola Akinkuotu, quoted Mr Komolafe as saying the announcement followed the approval of President Bola Tinubu, who also serves as the Minister of Petroleum Resources, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act.
“We are announcing that we are ready, following the approval of the Minister of Petroleum Resources in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, to commence the 2025 Licensing Round beginning from December 1, 2025,” he said.
The 2025 Licensing Round is aimed at unlocking Nigeria’s undeveloped and fallow oil and gas fields, with a particular focus on gas assets.
Earlier, Business Post reported that there were expectations that fresh licensing would add 1.7 million barrels and 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas from 43 Field Development Plans (FDPs).
According to Mr Komolafe, the initiative seeks to accelerate upstream production and bring previously discovered but unexploited fields into commercial operation.
Licensing rounds have been a key feature of Nigeria’s upstream sector for decades. Major rounds were conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2007, while the 2010s saw smaller, targeted rounds for marginal fields and deepwater assets.
These exercises were designed to attract investors and stimulate production, although some blocks awarded in earlier rounds stalled due to technical, financial or regulatory challenges.
The NUPRC is expected to publish detailed guidelines, including the list of blocks on offer, pre-qualification requirements, and submission timelines, ahead of the licensing round to ensure transparency and clarity for all prospective investors.
Economy
Komolafe Expects Fresh 1.7bn Barrels of Crude, 7.7trn Cubic Feet of Gas from 43 FDPs
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mr Gbenga Komolafe, says the 43 Field Development Plans (FDPs) recorded this year can unlock 1.7 billion barrels of crude and 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas in Nigeria.
Speaking at the 43rs Annual International Conference and Exhibition (AICE) of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) in Lagos on Monday, he said the development depicts significant progress in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
The NUPRC chief, who was represented by the Director for Subsurface Development of the agency, Emmanuel Mac-Jaja, noted that these FDPs reflected a resurgence in investments.
“In 2025 alone, 43 new Field Development Plans (FDPs) were approved, unlocking 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas, backed by over $20 billion in committed capital,” he stated.
Mr Komolafe added that major Final Investment Decisions(FIDs) including the $5 billion for Bonga North, $500 million for Ubeta Gas, and $2 billion for Shell’s HI Gas Project, unlocking nearly 2 trillion standard cubic feet of gas.
The NUPRC boss stated that indigenous participation continues to deepen, with local acquisition deals exceeding $5 billion, signaling growing confidence in homegrown players, noting that Nigeria’s push to reignite oil and gas exploration and production has entered a new phase. According to him, Nigeria is at a defining moment in global energy one of transition, transformation, and opportunity.
Speaking on balancing transition with reality, the NUPRC boss observed that while the global shift toward renewables is gaining momentum, oil and gas will remain indispensable for decades to come, particularly in developing economies where energy access remains a critical challenge.
On upstream reforms powering growth, Mr Komolafe outlined several ongoing initiatives aimed at repositioning Nigeria’s upstream sector for long-term progress.
These, the NUPRC chief said, include advanced data systems that involve the use of cutting -edge technologies like stress field detection and an upgraded National Data Repository to de-risk exploration; continuous acreage licensing, which provides a transparent and predictable framework for global competitiveness; and the Project One Million Barrels, a push to restore and grow daily production through rig reactivation and well optimization.
He added that deepwater expansion, through cluster development and shared infrastructure, is helping to cut costs and accelerate first oil, while frontier basin development leverages the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to explore untapped basins across Nigeria.
On the increase in investments, the NUPRC head highlighted significant progress driven by these reforms. Rig activity, he said, has risen from just eight in 2021 to well over 40 today, reflecting renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
On environmental stewardship, Mr Komolafe reaffirmed the NUPRC’s commitment to responsible operations through key initiatives such as gas flare commercialisation, the Decade of Gas, and the Presidential CNG Initiative, all designed to turn waste into wealth.
He also spotlighted the Commission’s Upstream Decarbonisation Framework, which integrates methane monitoring, carbon capture, and access to carbon finance.
In addition, the Host Community Development Trust, powered by the HostComply platform, ensures transparency, accountability, and shared prosperity for oil-bearing communities.
The NUPRC chief expressed confidence that the reforms underway would firmly position Nigeria as a global energy hub once again.
Economy
Ellah Lakes to Unlock Next Growth Trajectory With N235bn Equity Offer
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The chief executive of Ellah Lakes Plc, Mr Chuka Mordi, has described the N235 billion equity offer as a pivotal step in the company’s evolution.
“This offer for subscription is about unlocking the next chapter of Ellah Lakes’ growth story.
“At an offer price of N12.50 per share, this raise reflects the intrinsic value of our scaled, integrated platform.
“We are inviting investors to participate in a clear growth trajectory built on over 30,000 hectares of resilient, diversified assets and strong processing capacity.
“The N235 billion equity expansion marks our transition from foundation building to full-scale market expansion, driving sustainable profitability and advancing Nigeria’s food security agenda,” he stated.
Also, the deputy chief executive of the firm, Mr Paul Farrer, said, “Every Naira from this raise has a clear strategic purpose.
“The proceeds will accelerate integration of the newly acquired Agro-Allied Resources and Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) assets and upgrade our crude palm oil and cassava processing facilities.
“Our goal is to deliver a step-change in operational efficiency and scale, maximising value for shareholders and contributing to the broader agro-industrial ecosystem.”
Business Post reports that the offer was launched during a Facts Behind the Offer presentation at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said, “The launch of this N235 billion equity raise underscores the depth and resilience of Nigeria’s capital market as a strategic enabler of corporate growth.
“At NGX, we are particularly pleased to see a leading indigenous agribusiness like Ellah Lakes harness the market to scale its operations and deepen value creation across the agricultural value chain.
“This offer represents not only an opportunity for investors to participate in the country’s agro-industrial expansion but also a strong signal of renewed confidence in the exchange as a gateway for transformative capital formation.”
Ellah Lakes is a pioneering integrated agro-industrial enterprise in Nigeria raising N235 billion through the issuance of 18.8 billion ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N12.50 per share.
The exercise is led by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) as the lead issuing house. It commenced on Monday, November 10, 2025, and will close on Friday, December 5, 2025.
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