Economy
Fitch Upgrades Ghana’s Outlook to Stable
Ghana national flag
By Dipo Olowookere
The Outlook on Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) has been upgraded by Fitch Ratings to Stable from Negative. Also, the West African nation’s IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B’.
A statement issued by the rating agency on Friday stated further that it has equally affirmed the issue ratings on Ghana’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds at ‘B’, as well as the ‘BB-‘ rating on Ghana’s $1 billion partially guaranteed note.
Ghana’s Country Ceiling and Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B’, Fitch said.
The agency said Ghana continues to make progress in stabilising its economy after its recent crisis period, with an expected revival in GDP growth, declining inflation, a more stable currency and increasing foreign exchange reserves.
Furthermore Fitch judges that the new government will make progress in reducing the budget deficit after the election-related slippage in 2016, albeit with continued downside risks.
Fitch expects growth to improve to 6 percent in 2017 from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2016, when it was hampered by lower than expected oil production and power cuts.
CPI inflation fell to 12.9 percent year on year in March, from a peak of 19 percent in March 2016. The cedi has recovered to 4.2/$, after depreciating to 4.7/$ in early March. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has allowed the Bank of Ghana to cut its policy interest rate to 23.5 percent from a peak of 26 percent in 2016.
Further, rising oil production and the benefits from macroeconomic stability will support Ghana’s medium-term growth potential above 6 percent, a key rating strength.
Ghana experienced a blow-out in the 2016 budget deficit, which widened to an estimated 8.9 percent of GDP (on a cash basis) in the run-up to December general elections, compared with a government and IMF target of 5.3 percent, and an outturn of 6.3 percent in 2015.
The cash deficit includes up to USD1.3 billion (3% of GDP) in off-budget and unapproved spending. On a commitment basis, accounting for an additional $650 million in unpaid commitments, Ghana’s deficit widened to as much as 10.5 percent of GDP.
Fitch notes that some of the unapproved expenditure is presently being audited and a significant chunk may be written down, which would lower the deficit.
The election resulted in a win for the New Patriotic Party, Ghana’s centre-right party, which had been in opposition since 2009. In March, the new government announced its 2017 budget, which calls for fiscal consolidation, and measures to strengthen public financial management.
Fitch forecasts the 2017 budget deficit to narrow to 7.5 percent of GDP on a cash basis, and further to 5.5 percent in 2018.
The government’s 2017 deficit forecast of 6.5 percent of GDP is based on an expected increase in tax revenues and a cut to capital expenditures.
Fitch believes that the expected increase in tax revenues will be difficult to realise, as the budget contains significant tax cuts aimed at boosting the business climate. Fitch notes that Ghana has historically underperformed its budgeted revenue projections.
On the expenditure side, interest costs will continue to exert upward pressure. Ghana’s interest costs are 32 percent of its general government revenues, a level well above the ‘B’ median of 9 percent.
Also, a lack of transparency and accountability within the line ministries has persistently led to substantial off-budget spending and the accumulation of arrears.
Successful implementation of the measures outlined in the Public Financial Management Act, 2016 would help control expenditure and keep spending focused on the policy priorities outlined in the budget.
Gross general government debt has stabilised, experiencing a slight increase to 73 percent of GDP at end-2016, from 72 percent at end-2015.
Fitch expects the debt/GDP ratio to decline to around 71 percent by end-2017 due to strengthening of the exchange rate (62% of debt is foreign currency denominated), lower budget deficit and robust nominal GDP growth.
However, Ghana’s debt level will remain higher than peers both as a percentage of GDP (the ‘B’ median is 56% of GDP) and as a percentage of revenue. Ghana’s general government debt/revenue is 366%, compared with the ‘B’ median of 225 percent.
Fitch said Ghana’s $915 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the IMF is a key support for the sovereign ratings.
The incoming government has signalled its commitment to complete the programme, but has engaged with the Fund in renegotiating some of the programme’s indicative targets and structural benchmarks.
IMF staff completed the fourth review of the ECF in March and it will go to the IMF Board for approval before the end of June, allowing for the dispersal of an additional $116 million. Fitch believes that the government remains committed to successfully completing the current programme, which is due to run until 2018.
Ghana’s ‘B’ IDRs reflect the following key rating drivers:
Ghana’s external finances are a rating weakness. Fitch forecasts the current account deficit to narrow slightly to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2017, from 6.7 percent in 2016, but remain above the ‘B’ median of 5.7 percent of GDP.
Increases in oil and gas exports will help Ghana’s export performance, but rising imports will keep the current account deficit from narrowing significantly. International reserves increased by $460 million in 2016, ending at $4.9 billion, about 2.8 months of current external payments.
Fitch says it expects that external debt payments due in 2017 will limit reserves accumulation and forecasts reserves to reach $5.2 billion at end-2017.
The ratings are supported by World Bank governance indictors and business environment indicators that are stronger than the ‘B’ median, underlined by the peaceful transition of power in December. However, the ratings are constrained by low GDP per capita, which at $1,509 is less than half the ‘B’ median, low human development indicators and dependence on commodity exports.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.69 per cent appreciation on Monday, January 13, as investors showed renewed interests in unlisted securities.
During the trading session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 21.07 points to wrap the session at 3,095.00 points compared with the 3,073.93 points recorded in the previous session.
In the same vein, the value of the local alternative stock exchange went up by N7.22 billion to close at N1.061 trillion compared with last Friday’s N1.051 trillion.
Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded a growth of N3.78 to close at N42.00 per share versus N38.22 per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc improved by 20 Kobo to end at N2.35 per unit versus the preceding closing rate of N2.15 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to finish at 25 Kobo per share compared with the previous session’s 24 Kobo per share.
Conversely, Geo-Fluids Plc lost 29 Kobo to quote at N4.56 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N4.85 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 75 kobo to end the session at N15.50 per share versus the preceding closing rate of N16.25 per share.
During the session, the volume of securities traded decreased by 27.2 per cent to 3.1 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of securities slumped by 81.5 per cent to N3.2 million from N17.2 million, and the number of deals expanded by 57.9 per cent to 30 deals from 19 deals.
At the close of trades, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and IGI Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.
Also, IGI Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a 0.38 per cent or N5.86 depreciation on the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, January 13 to close at N1,548.89/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,543.03/$1.
The local currency weakened further in the official market yesterday as the deadline to cut off Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) built to enhance transparency in the FX system looms.
Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December opened a 42-day window to allow BDCs to buy FX worth $25,000 per week from the spot market.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market on Monday by N11.87 to trade at N1,877.43/£1 compared with last Friday’s N1,889.29/£1 and against the Euro, it improved its value by N4.94 to close at N1,578.87/€1, in contrast to the previous trading day’s N1,583.81/€1.
A look at the parallel market indicated that the Nigerian Naira slumped against the greenback yesterday by N5 to sell at N1,655/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,650/$1.
In the cryptocurrency market, large positive outcomes came even as risk assets weighed the possibility of US Federal Reserve rate cuts in the wake of Friday’s hotter-than-expected US jobs report.
The biggest gainer was recorded by Dogecoin (DOGE) as it rose by 3.9 per cent to sell at $0.3422, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 0.9 per cent to trade at $94,843.98, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 0.8 per cent to sell for $687.84, and Solana (SOL) recorded a 0.8 per cent growth to quote at $185.24.
Further, Ripple (XRP) increased its value by 0.7 per cent to close at $2.53, and Cardano jumped by 0.3 per cent to settle at $0.9469.
On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.9 per cent to finish at $3,159.52, and Litecoin (LTC) went down by 0.9 per cent to close at $98.68, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose on Monday as Chinese and Indian buyers sought new suppliers after the administration of President Joe Biden of the United States imposed toughest sanctions yet on Russian energy.
Last Friday, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that traded oil as part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers. The move is expected to cost Russia billions of Dollars per month.
This pushed the price of Brent higher by $1.25 or 1.6 per cent yesterday to $81.01 per barrel and raised the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by $2.25 or 2.9 per cent to $78.82 a barrel.
As a result, Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking alternative fuel supplies as they adapt to the severe sanctions on Russian producers and tankers that are designed to curb the revenues of the world’s second-largest oil exporter.
The large sanction gives Ukraine and the US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, leverage to reach a deal for peace in the almost three years war.
Market analysts note that these sanctions have the potential to take as much as 700,000 barrels per day of supply off the market, which would erase the surplus that we are expecting for this year.
On its part, Goldman Sachs estimated that vessels targeted by the new sanctions transported 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, or 25 per cent of Russia’s exports. The bank is increasingly expecting its projection for a Brent range of $70-$85 to trade.
The Vladimir Putin-led government said the sanctions risked destabilising global markets, and Russia would seek to counter them.
Many of the tankers named have been used to ship oil to India and China after previous Western sanctions. A price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some of the ships have also moved oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.
Also, six European Union countries called on the European Commission to lower the price cap put on Russian oil by G7 countries, arguing it would reduce Russia’s revenue to continue the war while not causing a market shock.
However, weaker demand from major oil buyers, China, could have an impact on the tighter supply as data showed that China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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