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Economy

Flour Mills Will Achieve 137.3% EPS Growth—Analysts

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the top players in the flour milling sector in the country, Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc, has been tipped to record a year-on-year expansion of 137.3 percent in its earnings per share in its present financial year ending March 31, 2020.

In its first quarter ended June 30, 2019, the firm recorded an impressive 16.5 percent year-on-year EPS growth from a finance cost-induced negative EPS printed in the fourth quarter of ended March 31, 2019.

According to analysts at Cordros Research, the upsurge in earnings largely stemmed from the blend of lower effective taxes (-700 bps) and material decline in finance charges (26.6% y/y) as the company used the proceeds from the rights issue earlier in the year to pay off its expensive borrowing.

For evidence, the company’s total debt dipped by 22.0% y/y to N133.9 billion, split into overdraft (12% of total), short term (32% of total), and long term (48% of total), respectively.

Earlier this year, Flour Mills raised N39.0 billion via a rights issue and utilized the proceeds to pay off its expensive short-term debt. Consequently, the company recorded a 22 percent decline in finance charges.

Looking ahead, Cordros Research says it sees scope for further debt reduction given the group’s less aggressive CapEx programme and better revenue outlook. It said management has guided to CapEx intensity remaining low in the medium-term, pointing out that there is the belief that the group’s FCF generation is looking set to be boosted and net debt reduced.

“From our previous estimate of N2.27 per share, we now forecast Flour Mills will deliver a +137.3% y/y expansion in EPS (N2.31 percent share) in 2020E, driven by the combination of (1) low base from the prior year, (2) sizeable decline in finance charges, and (3) managements cost-cutting tactics,” Cordros Research analysts said.

“While we are concerned about the weak food margin, on account of consumer downtrading, we like that the sugar segment is now at break-even point, and despite the strength of competition, we believe margin growth prospect is high.

“On our estimates, the stock is trading at 2020E P/E and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x and 3.38x, relative to 17.5x and 13.5x for Bloomberg Middle East & Africa peers.

“Our revised TP of NGN26.59/share (previously: NGN25.23) implies a total return of 76.0% as at the closing price yesterday. We retain our BUY rating on the stock,” the Lagos-based research company said in its report.

Business Post reports that shares of Flour Mills were traded on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Wednesday at N15.30k each, going down by 0.30 kobo or 1.92 percent at the close of business.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Naira Value Further Dips 0.13% to N1,355/$1

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Naira-Yuan Currency Swap Deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated further against the United States Dollar by N1.76 or 0.13 per cent on Friday in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to close at N1,33.42/$1, in contrast to the N1,353.66/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.

However, the Naira appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday by N5.05 to trade at N1,844.59 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,849.64/£1, and against the Euro, it improved by 75 Kobo to quote at N1,60/€1 versus the previous day’s N1,608.68/€1.

At the GTBank FX desk, the domestic currency lost N6 on the US Dollar on Friday to settle at N1,365/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,359/$1, and at the parallel market, it chalked up N10 to trade at N1,430/$1 versus the previous day’s N1,430/$1.

The weakening of the Nigerian currency in the official market happened as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) refrained from intervening in the official window.

The FX supply side was eclipsed by growing demand for foreign payments. Exporters’ inflows, non-bank corporate supply, and other market participants’ contributions had enhanced the FX liquidity level.

Pressure came with the entry of all duly licensed Bureau De Change (BDCs) into the official foreign exchange, although there are indications that the move will help the Naira-US Dollar exchange value, as BDC operators have started approaching their banks to understand the operational modalities and framework for accessing Dollars.

As for the cryptocurrency market, benchmarked tokens improved as US interest rate futures on Friday raised odds of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve after a report that showed inflation rose less than expected in January.

Data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 per cent last month after an unrevised 0.3 per cent gain in December, with Solana (SOL) up by 7.9 per cent to $85.17, and Ethereum (ETH) up by 6.5 per cent to trade at $2,059.78.

Further, Cardano (ADA) added 5.3 per cent to close at $0.2758, Ripple (XRP) jumped 5.1 per cent to $1.42, Bitcoin expanded by 4.8 per cent to $69,357.35, Litecoin (LTC) grew by 4.7 per cent to $55.27, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 4.0 per cent to $621.88, and Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 3.8 per cent to $0.0965, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Prices up as US Inflation Data Outweighs OPEC Supply Concerns

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices were marginally higher on Friday after data showed an overall slowdown in US inflation, helping offset supply concerns as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is leaning towards a resumption in production increases.

Brent crude futures grew by 23 cents or 0.3 per cent to $67.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures expanded by 5 cents or 0.08 per cent to $62.89 per barrel.

US consumer prices increased less than expected in January amid cheaper gasoline prices and a moderation in rental inflation.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 per cent last month after an unrevised 0.3 per cent gain in December, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

The report followed news this week of an acceleration in job growth in January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent in December.

Market analysts noted that since inflation is stabilising, it may lead to interest rates probably continuing to move a little bit lower.

OPEC is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, ahead of the upcoming peak summer fuel demand, and amid firmer crude prices owing to tensions over US-Iran relations.

There are indications that this will happen when eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March 1.

The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

OPEC’s latest oil market forecasts show demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter falling by 400,000 barrels per day from the first three months of the year, but demand for the whole year is projected to be 600,000 barrels per day higher than in 2025.

Oil prices had strengthened earlier in the week on concerns that the US could attack Middle Eastern oil producer Iran over its nuclear programme. The US is sending an aircraft carrier from the Caribbean to the Middle East on Friday, a move that would put two carriers in the region as tensions soar between the two countries.

The US also eased sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector on Friday, issuing two general licenses that allow global energy companies to operate oil and gas projects in the OPEC member and for other companies to negotiate contracts to bring in fresh investments.

On the US supply side, Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by three to 409 this week.

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Economy

Katsina Provides Additional N500m for Women-owned Businesses

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Katsina Civil Servant

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Katsina State government has offered additional N500 million to support women-owned businesses in the state as part of efforts to boost economic activities.

Governor Dikko Umaru Radda announced this at the Women of Influence and Investment Summit hosted by the Katsina Inner Wheel Development Initiative (KIWDI), in partnership with Access Bank Plc.

The event brought together women entrepreneurs, investors, policymakers, and development partners to advance women’s economic empowerment in the state.

The summit, themed Where Influence Meets Investment, focused on positioning women as key drivers of enterprise, leadership, and inclusive growth. It also highlighted the growing collaboration between Access Bank and the Katsina State Government on financial inclusion and SME development.

Mr Radda noted that investing in women was critical to building a productive and sustainable economy.

In her welcome address, the founder of KIWDI, Ms Amina Zayyana, said the summit was designed to connect women to opportunities, training, finance, and markets, stressing that when women-led businesses grow, families and communities benefit.

On her part, the Group Head of Women Banking at Access Bank, Mrs Nene Kunle-Ogunlusi, said the lender was proud to partner with Katsina State and KIWDI in advancing women’s economic participation.

“At Access Bank, we are committed to moving women from potential to prosperity. Through our Women Banking proposition and the ‘W’ Initiative, we provide access to finance, capacity building, and market linkages that help women start, stabilise, and scale their businesses,” she said.

She noted that the W Initiative, launched in 2014, is Access Bank’s flagship women- focused platform, designed to meet the real needs of women entrepreneurs and professionals across Nigeria and Africa.

“Our partnership with Katsina State goes beyond banking. It is about supporting economic empowerment, SME growth, and financial inclusion, especially for women,” she added.

Mrs Kunle-Ogunlusi noted that Access Bank was proud to participate not just as a financial institution, but as a long-term partner in women’s economic advancement across Nigeria and Africa.

“At Access Bank, we made a deliberate decision to change that, not with charity, but with strategy. Not with sympathy, but with solutions. The W Initiative, which was launched in 2014, is Access Bank’s flagship women-focused proposition, created to respond to the real needs of women,” she said.

The banker disclosed that through the W Initiative, the bank has disbursed over N314 billion in loans to women, supporting over 3.6 million female loan beneficiaries, and helping women-owned businesses start, stabilise, and scale up.

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