Economy
Foreign Investors Boost Foreign Exchange Supply
By FSDH Research
The foreign exchange supply into the Nigerian economy received a major boost in the second quarter of 2017 (Q2, 2017) from foreign investors.
According to the data on Nigerian Capital Importation that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released for Q2, 2017, the total capital imported into the country increased to $1.79 billion in Q2, 2017 from $908 million in Q1, 2017.
The capital importation figure in Q2, 2017 represents a growth of 97.34 percent over the figure reported in Q1, 2017 and a growth of 71.98 percent over the $1.04 billion recorded in Q2, 2016.
Cumulatively, a total of $2.70 billion capital was imported into the country in the first half of 2017 (HY1, 2017), representing a growth of 54 percent over the $1.75 billion imported in the corresponding period of 2016.
Looking at the developments in the HY1, 2017 and based on historical trend, our forecast shows that capital importation for the full year 2017 (FY 2017) should increase to $5.82 billion, representing a growth of 11.35 percent over the capital of $5.22 billion imported into the country in 2016.
Although our forecast represents the second lowest figure since 2010, it signifies an improvement in the foreign investors’ perception about the short-to-medium term outlook of the Nigerian economy.
A further analysis of the total capital imported into the Nigerian economy in Q2, 2017 shows that the highest figure occurred in May 2017 ($616.5 million); followed by June ($612.6 million) and April ($563.3 million).
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) was the main driver of the growth in capital importation in Q2, 2017. FPI represented 42.99 percent of capital importation at $771 million; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contributed 15.31 percent ($274 million); while Other Investments (Trade Credits, Loans, Currency Deposits, and Other Claims) contributed 41.70 percent ($747 million).
The breakdown of the capital importation by instrument shows that equity investment accounted for the highest portion of both FPI and FDI in Q2 2017. Equity investment accounted for 79.7 percent and 99.9 percent of the FPI and FDI, respectively.
Other sectors that attracted foreign capital in Q2, 2017 are oil and gas, servicing and production/manufacturing.
The initiative of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to create the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window) boosted foreign investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and helped to attract foreign capital.
We observed that the monthly average external reserves increased to $30 billion in March 2017, and has not dropped below that level. A combination of an increase in foreign investments in Nigeria, and improvement in crude oil production and price have had positive impact on the country’s external reserves.
Consequently, the CBN has been able to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the various foreign exchange markets, leading to foreign exchange rate stability and appreciation. The equity market has also received a major lift, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) recording the best Year-to-Date (YTD) performance in three years. In another development, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that the NBS released on August 28, 2017 shows that inflation rate (Year-on-Year) dropped marginally to 16.05 percent in July 2017, from 16.10% in June 2017.
This is the sixth consecutive month of decline in the inflation rate in 2017. There was also a further deceleration in the rate of increase in the Month-on-Month inflation rate in July 2017, compared with the rate in June 2017.
The month-on-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 1.21 percent in July 2017, lower than 1.58 percent recorded in June 2017.
Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.5 percent – 16.2% for the remainder of 2017.
With better policy initiatives and implementation, we believe the Nigerian economy can attract more foreign capital up to the levels attained in the year 2013.
By Dipo Olowookere
About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.
Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.
According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.
The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.
A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.
On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.
Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.
Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.
The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.
Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.
Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.
Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.
Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.
The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.
The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.
According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn