Economy
Foreign Investors Boost Foreign Exchange Supply
By FSDH Research
The foreign exchange supply into the Nigerian economy received a major boost in the second quarter of 2017 (Q2, 2017) from foreign investors.
According to the data on Nigerian Capital Importation that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released for Q2, 2017, the total capital imported into the country increased to $1.79 billion in Q2, 2017 from $908 million in Q1, 2017.
The capital importation figure in Q2, 2017 represents a growth of 97.34 percent over the figure reported in Q1, 2017 and a growth of 71.98 percent over the $1.04 billion recorded in Q2, 2016.
Cumulatively, a total of $2.70 billion capital was imported into the country in the first half of 2017 (HY1, 2017), representing a growth of 54 percent over the $1.75 billion imported in the corresponding period of 2016.
Looking at the developments in the HY1, 2017 and based on historical trend, our forecast shows that capital importation for the full year 2017 (FY 2017) should increase to $5.82 billion, representing a growth of 11.35 percent over the capital of $5.22 billion imported into the country in 2016.
Although our forecast represents the second lowest figure since 2010, it signifies an improvement in the foreign investors’ perception about the short-to-medium term outlook of the Nigerian economy.
A further analysis of the total capital imported into the Nigerian economy in Q2, 2017 shows that the highest figure occurred in May 2017 ($616.5 million); followed by June ($612.6 million) and April ($563.3 million).
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) was the main driver of the growth in capital importation in Q2, 2017. FPI represented 42.99 percent of capital importation at $771 million; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contributed 15.31 percent ($274 million); while Other Investments (Trade Credits, Loans, Currency Deposits, and Other Claims) contributed 41.70 percent ($747 million).
The breakdown of the capital importation by instrument shows that equity investment accounted for the highest portion of both FPI and FDI in Q2 2017. Equity investment accounted for 79.7 percent and 99.9 percent of the FPI and FDI, respectively.
Other sectors that attracted foreign capital in Q2, 2017 are oil and gas, servicing and production/manufacturing.
The initiative of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to create the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window (I&E Window) boosted foreign investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and helped to attract foreign capital.
We observed that the monthly average external reserves increased to $30 billion in March 2017, and has not dropped below that level. A combination of an increase in foreign investments in Nigeria, and improvement in crude oil production and price have had positive impact on the country’s external reserves.
Consequently, the CBN has been able to increase the supply of foreign exchange in the various foreign exchange markets, leading to foreign exchange rate stability and appreciation. The equity market has also received a major lift, with the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) recording the best Year-to-Date (YTD) performance in three years. In another development, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that the NBS released on August 28, 2017 shows that inflation rate (Year-on-Year) dropped marginally to 16.05 percent in July 2017, from 16.10% in June 2017.
This is the sixth consecutive month of decline in the inflation rate in 2017. There was also a further deceleration in the rate of increase in the Month-on-Month inflation rate in July 2017, compared with the rate in June 2017.
The month-on-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 1.21 percent in July 2017, lower than 1.58 percent recorded in June 2017.
Our forecast shows that the inflation rate will remain in the range of 15.5 percent – 16.2% for the remainder of 2017.
With better policy initiatives and implementation, we believe the Nigerian economy can attract more foreign capital up to the levels attained in the year 2013.
Economy
OPEC Crude Output Falls to 37-Year Low Amid Iran Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.
According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.
Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.
War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.
Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.
Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.
The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.
This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.
Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.
Economy
Debt Repayments: FG Overshoots Budget Allocation by 18%
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The 2025 third quarter Budget Implementation Report from the Budget Office of the Federation has shown that the federal government exceeded the funds allocation for repayment of debts for the first nine months of the fiscal year by about 18 per cent.
In a report by Punch, the sum of N10.74 trillion was budgeted for debt servicing between January and September 2025, but the government used N12.63 trillion for the purpose, N1.90 trillion or 17.65 per cent more than the allocation for the year.
The funds were spent on domestic debts, foreign debts and sinking fund by the central government in nine months.
Business Post reports that for the whole year, the amount approved by the National Assembly and signed by President Bola Tinubu for debt repayments was N14.31 trillion.
Looking at the nine-month figures, domestic debt service gulped N6.23 trillion, exceeding its N5.39 trillion provision, while foreign debt service was N6.30 trillion versus the budget provision of N5.06 trillion.
According to the report, the figures indicated that 67.2 per cent of the federal government’s retained revenue of N18.63 trillion was spent on debt service in the first nine months of 2025. When the sinking fund is included, debt-related payments consumed about 67.8 per cent of revenue.
It was also observed that aggregate federal government revenue underperformed the budget by N12.03 trillion or 39.24 per cent, as actual revenue of N18.63 trillion fell short of the N30.67 trillion projected for the first three quarters.
In the third quarter alone, the government generated N7.70 trillion versus the quarterly target of N10.22 trillion as a result of persistent oil revenue shortfalls, despite stronger non-oil collections.
The debt burden also crowded out capital spending, as total capital expenditure was N3.10 trillion in the first nine months compared with the N17.58 trillion budgeted for the period, indicating that actual debt-related payments were more than four times capital expenditure.
Economy
Unlisted Stock Investors’ Wealth Shrinks N30bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.
Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.
The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.
For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.
There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
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