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Fresh Hopes of US Stimulus, Weaker Dollar Favour Crude Oil

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices closed higher on Tuesday as the market hopped on a weaker Dollar and hopes of a better economic stimulus in the United States.

During the session, the Brent gained 30 cents or 0.54 per cent to sell at $56.20 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude made a 0.45 per cent or 24 cents growth to trade at $53.22 per barrel.

The US Dollar slipped from close to its highest in nearly a month, dropping 0.3 per cent and this strengthened the position of other currency holders as a weaker greenback increased their stance on the commodity.

The market also received a boost as the United States Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, used her confirmation hearing to bolster the case for additional fiscal stimulus.

The move, if successful, would help to mend the economic damage inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic on the world’s largest economy.

President-elect Joe Biden had last week rolled out a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan that includes cash payments to Americans and money for distributing COVID-19 vaccines.

Analysts noted that strong (stimulus) package would psychologically lift the mood of the investor and a good many consumers are going to go out and spend.

These factors outweighed other stronger ones especially in terms of demand as the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for 2021 crude demand.

The IEA on Tuesday cut its forecast for demand in 2021 by 280,000 barrels a day to 5.5 million barrels a day. The bleaker outlook focused mainly on the start of the year, with a 600,000 barrels per day cut to its forecasts for the first quarter and a 300,000 barrels per day cut to its forecasts for the second quarter.

The drop in the first quarter demand is due to a combination of surging case counts across the US and Europe, as well as calls within China to limit travel for the Lunar New Year, a period that sees more people travel than any other single event in the most populous counter in the world.

The Paris-based group, which advises the world’s largest economies on energy-related matters, expects higher demand to allow world oil supply rise by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, following a record decline of 6.6 million barrels per day in 2020.

The IEA expects global oil stocks to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2021, assuming the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, is fully compliant with the latest agreement of increasing production by only 500,000 barrels a day.

Despite the mood on Tuesday, there are also fears among investors due to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday, fearing more far-right mob violence.

Weekly data on US petroleum supplies from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released on Thursday, a day later than usual because of Monday’s Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday in America.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Stock Market Drops 1.02% as BUA Cement Leads Losers’ Chart

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By Dipo Olowookere

The bears quickly took control of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, plunging the stock trading platform by 1.02 per cent after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left the benchmark interest rate at 26.50 per cent.

The bourse sank at midweek as BUA Cement led the losers’ chart, after closing lower by 10.00 per cent to N414.00. CAP lost 9.99 per cent to trade at N210.35, eTranzact shrank by 7.03 per cent to N17.20, International Breweries depreciated by 5.38 per cent to N12.30, and Deap Capital crashed by 4.92 per cent to N5.80.

On the flip side, Zichis led the gainers’ chart after it chalked up 9.99 per cent to sell for N32.04, ABC Transport rose by 9.99 per cent to N8.26, Japaul expanded by 9.95 per cent to N4.09, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank grew by 9.92 per cent to N4.21, and FTN Cocoa soared by 9.91 per cent to N10.76.

Business Post observed that despite the loss, investor sentiment remained bullish, as Customs Street finished yesterday with 42 price gainers and 24 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index.

The insurance counter was the only riser at midweek, closing higher by 0.80 per cent due to bargain-hunting in the space.

However, profit-taking in the other sectors was responsible for the contraction recorded by the stock market on Wednesday.

The industrial goods segment lost 3.84 per cent, the consumer goods sector depreciated by 0.45 per cent, the banking index slumped by 0.31 per cent, and the energy industry dropped 0.10 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) moderated by 2,573.05 points to 249,062.37 points from 251,635.42 points, and the market capitalisation depleted by N1.619 trillion to N159.661 trillion from N161.280 trillion.

A look at the activity chart showed that 600.2 million shares worth N32.7 billion exchanged hands in 58,958 deals on Wednesday compared with the 704.0 million shares valued at N32.2 billion transacted in 64,539 deals on Tuesday, implying a jump in the trading value by 1.55 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and number of deals by 14.74 per cent, and 8.65 per cent, respectively.

Access Holdings led the activity chart with a turnover of 56.0 million units valued at N1.4 billion, Japaul transacted 49.9 million units worth N202.9 million, Zenith Bank traded 36.7 million units for N4.8 billion, Sterling Holdings sold 25.9 million units valued at N200.8 million, and Fidelity Bank exchanged 21.7 million units worth N499.6 million.

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Economy

Oil Prices Slide 6% as Trump Says Iran Talks in Final Stages

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell about ​6 per cent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages.

Brent crude futures went down by $6.26 or 5.63 per cent to $105.02 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $5.89 or 5.66 per cent to $98.26 per barrel.

Despite saying talks with Iran were in the final stages, Mr Trump warned of further attacks unless Iran ​agreed to a deal, making investors remain ‌wary about the outcome of peace talks as disruption to Middle Eastern supply continued.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Mr Esmaeil Baghaei, said Iran was ready to develop protocols for safe shipping traffic ​in cooperation with other coastal states.

Iran and the US have been in a stalemate for weeks now as Tehran blockades the Strait of Hormuz and Washington blockades Iranian ports. Hormuz is one of the world’s most important trade routes for oil and gas supplies.

Three supertankers crossed the Strait ​of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying ⁠oil bound for Asian markets, after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months with 6 million barrels of Middle East crude on board. The number of vessels crossing the strait ​remains well below the 130 or so ships that crossed daily before the war.

Analysts at Citi said that they expect Brent crude to rise to $120 a barrel in the near term, stating that oil markets are underpricing the risk of prolonged supply disruption, ​and Wood Mackenzie estimated that it could approach $200 if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely shut until the end of the ​year.

The CEO of ​the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mr Sultan Al ⁠Jaber, said on Wednesday that it will take at least four months to get back to 80 per cent of pre-conflict flows.

Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 7.9 million barrels during the week ending May 15, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday. The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 9.1 million barrels in the period.

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Economy

Investors Eye Investment Opportunities in Dangote Refinery

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is already attracting interest from South African investors and others.

The leadership of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), alongside the Public Investment Corporation and Alterra Capital Partners, were recently at the Lagos-based facility.

The chairperson of GEPF, Mr Frans Baleni, said that the refinery stands as evidence that Africa can execute transformational infrastructure projects when backed by visionary leadership, long-term investment and strong technical expertise.

According to him, the significance of the project extends well beyond Nigeria’s borders, noting that it should reshape how Africa thinks about itself.

“The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals Complex is a powerful demonstration that, with visionary leadership and long-term capital, that perception no longer holds. This is the kind of African-led industrial scale that institutional investors on this continent should be backing,” he said.

Also speaking, the chief executive of PIC, Mr Patrick Dlamini, described the refinery as one of the most transformative industrial projects undertaken on the continent, saying it is reshaping global perceptions about Africa’s industrial capabilities and economic potential.

He said PIC, which manages about $230 billion in assets largely on behalf of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund, is actively seeking long-term partnerships aligned with infrastructure development, industrialisation and economic transformation across Africa.

“There is real strategic alignment between Dangote’s industrial agenda and how we are positioning our portfolio, and we look forward to exploring meaningful avenues for collaboration,” he stated.

While receiving his visitors, the chief executive of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the proposed listing is designed to democratise wealth creation and give Africans direct access to participate in the continent’s industrial transformation.

“We are opening the doors for investors to participate directly in Africa’s industrial future and the prosperity it will create,” Mr Dangote said, adding that the refinery project reflects the scale of untapped opportunities within Africa’s energy market, particularly as most countries on the continent remain dependent on imported refined petroleum products despite growing industrial demand and rising consumption.

The billionaire industrialist noted that demand for products such as polypropylene, aviation fuel and refined petroleum products has exceeded earlier projections, reinforcing the commercial viability of the refinery and shaping future expansion plans.

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