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FX Inflows into Nigeria Still Below Pre-COVID Levels as Outflows Rise

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Foreign Exchange FX Inflows

By Tunde Abidoye

Nigeria is still battling with foreign exchange (FX) inflows despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to boost liquidity in the space.

In its latest Quarterly Statistical Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2020, the apex bank said the total FX inflows into the Nigerian economy in the period declined by 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 42 per cent year-on-year to $24.8 billion.

Although aggregate inflows have increased since they bottomed out to a 3-year low at the height of the pandemic, they have not recovered to pre-COVID levels.

FX inflows through the CBN increased 17.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $8.2 billion (or 33 per cent of total inflows), thanks to a 48 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in non-oil receipts to $6.8 billion.

A $2.0 billion category titled others including FGN loans underpinned the increase in non-oil receipts. On a net basis, the CBN’s swap arrangements grew 117 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $792 million.

In contrast, oil receipts fell 44 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1.3 billion due to i) Nigeria’s adherence to its OPEC oil production quota, which resulted in a decline of 0.1 million barrels per day and, ii) a decrease in NNPC’s share of oil and gas exports.

Autonomous sources (other than the CBN) contributed $16.6 billion in forex inflows or 67 per cent of overall inflows. It was supported by a 10 per cent increase in over-the-counter (OTC) purchases (under invisible transactions), which included capital imports, home remittances, and other OTC purchases which we reckon are mostly linked to bonds.

A further breakdown of OTC purchases showed that capital imports and home remittances shrunk by 25 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 52 per cent quarter-on-quarter respectively.

The drop in capital imports can be attributed to Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs’) waning appetite after a worsening of FX liquidity, induced by a sell-off in oil prices as the pandemic worsened. Remittances also suffered a blow from the weak economic growth and employment levels in migrant-hosting countries.

Drawing from a different data series, we note that workers remittances in the balance of payments accounts which provides a more holistic view of remittances also slumped by 31 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $4 billion in Q4 ’20 and 28 per cent year-on-year to $17 billion in FY ’20.

In an effort to boost remittances, the CBN in December 2020 said beneficiaries could take their remittances from licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) in US dollars. It also increased the number of authorized IMTOs.

In March 2021, the bank followed this up by launching its Naira 4 Dollar Scheme. Under the scheme, diaspora remittance recipients are rewarded with an extra N5 for every dollar wired through official routes.

FX outflows through the economy increased by 24.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $9.2 billion. About 97 per cent of total outflows were routed through the CBN.

The strong increase in forex outflows reflects a rise in CBN FX interventions at multiple intervention windows, notably the restart of FX sales to bureaux de change operators and at the investors and exporters (I&E) window in August ’20 after a five-month hiatus.

Despite the increase in outflows during the quarter, FX outflows remain below pre-pandemic levels, due largely to the CBN’s import compression strategies.

FBNQuest Researchs’ conversations with FPIs and domestic investors indicate that greater FX liberalisation (including further adjustments to the FX rate) and the loosening of FX controls such as the CBN’s 42-item FX restriction list are prerequisites to open the tap of portfolio flows.

Tunde Abidoye is the Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest. Additional information by Business Post

Economy

Nigeria’s Tax Sovereignty Not Affected by Deal With France—FIRS

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firs and france mou

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has issued a statement providing further clarifications following comments and reports on the recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and France on taxation.

The MoU, signed on December 10, 2025, at the French Embassy in Abuja by the chairman of FIRS, Mr Zacch Adedeji and French Ambassador, Mr Marc Fonbaustier, on behalf of France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP), focuses on key areas, including digital transformation, workforce development, information exchange, transfer pricing, and tackling base erosion and profit shifting.

However, the MoU has been met with resistance from opposition coalition party African Democratic Congress (ADC) as well as Northern elders, which both raised serious questions about transparency, national sovereignty and the safety of Nigerian consumers’ data.

In response, the tax authority, which will become known as Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS) from next year, emphasised that the deal does not grant France access to Nigerian taxpayer data, digital systems, or any element of the country’s operational infrastructure.

“All existing Nigerian laws on data protection, cybersecurity, and sovereignty remain fully applicable and strictly enforced. The NRS, like its predecessor, FIRS, places the highest premium on national security and maintains rigorous standards for the protection of all taxpayer information.”

It said similar MoUs are signed by tax administrations around the world to promote collaboration, knowledge sharing, and the adoption of global best practices.

“The DGFIP is among the world’s most advanced tax authorities, with over a century of institutional experience and deep expertise in digital transformation, taxpayer services, governance, and public finance.

“This partnership simply enables Nigeria to learn from that experience. It is advisory, non-intrusive, and entirely under Nigeria’s control.

“Contrary to misconceptions, the MoU does not displace local technology providers, FIRS and the emerging Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) continue to work closely with Nigerian innovators such as NIBSS, Interswitch, Paystack, and Flutterwave. The MoU does not include the provision of technical services; it is limited to knowledge sharing, institutional strengthening, workforce development, policy support, and best-practice guidance.

“We welcome robust public engagement on tax reforms, but such conversations must reflect the actual content and purpose of the agreement. Rather than undermining Nigeria’s sovereignty, this MoU strengthens it by helping to build a modern, capable, globally competitive tax administration one firmly in command of its systems, data, and strategic direction.

“FIRS remains committed to transparency, professionalism and partnership that advance Nigeria’s long-term economic development,” it said in a statement.

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Economy

Nigeria Okays 28 Firms for Gas-flaring Monetisation Project

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Gas flaring

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has issued permits to 28 companies under Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), a scheme that aims to end routine gas flaring to cut carbon emissions and use some of the gas to generate power.

Gas flaring is the controlled burning of natural gas that is released during oil extraction. The initiative marks a major step toward ending flaring and monetising wasted gas.

The projects could capture 250 to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas currently flared, cut about 6 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, and unlock nearly 3 gigawatts of power generation potential, an NGFCP document showed.

Nigeria expects the initiative to attract up to $2 billion in investment and create more than 100,000 jobs. It could also produce 170,000 metric tonnes of LPG annually, providing clean cooking access for 1.4 million households.

The permits follow a competitive bid round that awarded 49 flare sites to 42 bidders after the programme was restructured post-COVID-19 and the Petroleum Industry Act.

Speaking on this, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, head of the NUPRC, during the presentation of the certificates to the 28 companies said, “The NGFCP is a pillar in our quest to eliminate routine flaring, reduce emissions, and enhance Nigeria’s global credibility in energy transition commitments.”

The programme aligns with Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and aims to turn flare gas from an environmental liability into an economic asset.

The 28 companies have signed key agreements, including Connection, Milestone Development and Gas Sales Agreements, and now qualify for permits to access flare gas.

Producers will benefit from reduced liabilities, improved Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance and alignment with the government’s decarbonisation agenda.

Development partners, including Power Africa, KPMG, World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction initiative, USAID and financiers, have supported the programme with technical and commercial frameworks.

Mr Komolafe said while the permits mark a milestone, engineering, construction and financing must begin in earnest.

“The real work starts now,” the official added. “This programme will create economic, industrial and environmental value while strengthening Nigeria’s energy transition.”

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Economy

CSCS, Geo-Fluids, FrieslandCampina Lift NASD OTC Bourse by 0.62%

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Regconnect CSCS

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three bellwether stocks lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.62 per cent on Friday, December 12 with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) jumping by 22.20 points to 3,600.43 points from 3,578.23 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N13.28 billion to close at N2.154 trillion from the previous day’s N2.140 trillion.

During the session, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N2.53 to close at N39.71 per share compared with the previous day’s N37.18 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc added 35 Kobo to its price to finish at N5.00 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N4.65 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 23 Kobo appreciation to sell at N60.23 per share versus N60.00 per share.

It was observed that yesterday, the price of Golden Capital Plc went down by N1.05 to N9.45 per unit from N10.50 per unit, and UBN Propertiy Plc declined by 21 Kobo to N2.01 per share from the N2.22 per share it was traded a day earlier.

There was a significant improvement in the level of activity for the day, as the volume of transactions increased by 6.2 per cent to 37.4 million units from the previous day’s 35.2 million units, the value of trades went up by 265.1 per cent to N4.9 billion from N1.4 billion, and the number of deals soared by 13.80 per cent to 33 deals from 29 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the last trading day of this week as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, the second spot was taken by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units traded for N9.5 billion, and third space was occupied by a new comer in MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.3 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 537.0 million units sold for N524.9 million.

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