Economy
FY17: Unilever Nigeria EPS to Grow 94.7% to N1.58k—Analyst
By Dipo Olowookere
A research analyst at Renaissance Capital, Mr Adedayo Ayeni, has predicted that Earnings Per Share (diluted for the additional 1.9 billion shares issued in recent capital call) of Unilever Nigeria Plc is expected to grow by 94.7 percent year-on-year to N1.58k in the 2017 financial year.
Traders in the stock market are expected the company to release its 2017 financial statements soon and Mr Ayeni anticipates the company to record sales growth of 35.7 percent y-o-y and net profit growth of 112.6 percent y-o-y.
Recall that Unilever Nigeria carried out rights issue and Mr Ayeni believes that the excess cash obtained from the exercise will lead to the firm ending the fiscal year with a net cash balance of N29.8 billion and N31.2 billion next year.
He said with management not disclosing any major expansion capex plans for FY18 and the Blue Band plant in Agbara completed and commissioned in December 2017, capex should moderate to depreciation from FY18.
“We therefore cut our modelled capex to match depreciation in FY18-22. This therefore supports the strong cash-build which we see for Unilever in FY18-22 with FCF forecast to post 25.7 percent CAGR.
“Unilever’s management is now faced with the decision of what to do with the excess cash from the rights issue and the expected build-up from FCF.
“We have modelled that it continues to earn interest income which is the main driver of our earnings revision estimates in FY18 and FY19.
“There is the risk that it could pay extraordinary dividends in FY18 as we now estimate it will end FY17 and FY18 with net cash/equity of 38.9 percent and 40.6 percent, respectively,” the analyst said.
Furthermore, RenCap said given the slowdown in sales growth observed for Nestle Nigeria in the food segment in 4Q17 and that it was yet to see material increases in the price of Knorr in the current quarter, it revises its estimates for Unilever.
“We cut our sales forecasts by an average of 1.7 percent in FY17-18 and by 6.2 percent in FY19. We raise our EBITDA forecast by 2.3 percent in FY18 and 10.6 percent in FY19 as we view management’s drive to contain costs and move the production of Blue Band margarine to Nigeria as pleasing and supportive of medium- to long-term margin capture,” it said.
RenCap said it was mindful of tailwind FX risks associated with Unilever’s FX exposure.
In a meeting with management in 2017, it admitted that its FX effective rate was closer to N285/$ when most of the consumer companies under our coverage were sourcing FX at rates above N300/$.
“With FX rates now above ~NGN335/$ for most consumer companies and price increases in FY18-20 expected to be sub-inflationary, we expect EBITDA margin to decline to 14.7% in FY18.
However, we raise our net profit forecast by 20.4 percent and 33.5 percent in FY18 and FY19 with expectations of healthy interest income on significant cash balance driving the material revisions,” RenCap stated.
In addition, the investment firm said it has revised its estimates for Unilever with key changes driven by the expected impact of a stronger cash-build on interest income, capex cuts to match depreciation in forecast years and medium-term margin expansion.
“As a result, we up our TP by 3.0% to NGN40.5/share. The increase is further driven by a lower risk-free rate of 13.7% and upward revision to FY18E EPS.
“We maintain our SELL rating as we believe its valuation is still stretched given the recent re-rating. On our estimates, Unilever trades on FY18 P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 29.0x and 18.0x, respectively.
“While still trading below its five-year average forward P/E of 39.2x, we are still unable to justify the stock’s valuation at his level vs Nestle Nigeria (SELL; TP: NGN1,262.9; CP: NGN1,380.0), which we estimate trades on FY18 P/E of 26.6x,” it said.
Economy
Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.
The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).
According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.
At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.
To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.
The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.
Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.
“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.
He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”
The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.
Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.
The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.
Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.
“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.
It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.
The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.
Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.
For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.
Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.
The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”
Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.
However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.
At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.
The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.
Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.
Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.
Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.
This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.
Economy
Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.
The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.
A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.
The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.
Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.
“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.
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