Economy
Gains of Bilateral Currency Swap Deal Between Nigeria, China
By Afrinvest
Last week, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced the conclusion of a bilateral currency swap agreement between Nigeria and China valued at Renminbi (RMB) 15.0bn or N720.0bn.
The 3-year Agreement, signed by respective Central bank Governors on Friday, 27th April 2018, followed a 2-year long negotiation process between the two countries which began during President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to China in April 2016.
Consequent on the opening of the “Swap Line”, both central banks would exchange a stock of their local currencies (RMB 15.0bn/N720.0bn), which could either be extended by mutual consent at expiration in 2021 or reversed.
We view the agreement as a positive development, given the FCY liquidity squeeze Nigeria frequently experiences and the strong trade & investment ties between the two countries.
According to the trade statistics by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), merchandise trade between China and Nigeria reached a record high of N2.0tn in 2017 (8.7% of total Merchandise trade), thus making China Nigeria’s 3rd largest trading partner after India and the United States (accounting for 12.5% and 10.8% of merchandise trade respectively).
However, the Balance of Trade is heavily tilted in favour of China; imports from China in 2017 (N1.8tn) was 8.1x Nigeria’s export (N220.6bn) and accounts for 20.9% of total imports in the last five years. This is clearly suggestive of Nigeria’s growing dependence on China, much like most of the rest of the world, for manufactured products and industrial inputs, reinforcing the importance of this currency swap agreement for Nigeria’s import dependent Manufacturing and Trade sectors which jointly contribute 27.8% to GDP.
Given the established strategic importance of China as a major trade partner, the bilateral currency swap agreement will be beneficial to the Nigerian economy in several ways.
First, it would reduce currency transaction cost for importers and ease FX liquidity pressures in periods of FX rate volatility and/or scarcity. The implementation of this currency swap will also enhance financial stability and external reserves management by reducing the volume of FX interventions in the local market needed to fulfil imports demand.
Lastly, this agreement could serve as a risk management and unconventional monetary policy tool as probable losses resulting from transactions affected by volatility in the local currency could be hedged and minimized.
As an unconventional monetary policy tool, in managing third currencies pressures and liquidity, the importance of the bilateral currency swap agreement between Nigeria and China cannot be neglected.
Whilst we are excited by the symbolism of this agreement, we also note that the impact on the economy will be limited by the relatively small size of the Swap Line which could barely cover 40.0% of Nigeria’s Chinese import in a single year.
Furthermore, a key downside risk to the agreement is that the ease of transaction with a highly competitive country like China could worsen Nigeria’s trade balance and weaken domestic manufacturing capacity.
We think this concern is justified, particularly in a period of heightened trade scepticism. Yet, it also emphasizes the need to deepen domestic policies on improving competitiveness.
Economy
Nigeria to Export New Crude Grade Cawthorne in March
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is set to commence export of a new light, sweet crude grade known as Cawthorne from March 2026.
According to a report by Reuters, an NNPC spokesperson confirmed the development, describing it as part of efforts to increase output and consolidate Nigeria’s recent recovery in crude oil production.
The move aligns with Nigeria’s broader strategy to boost production after years of constraints caused by pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and unrest in oil-producing regions.
This follows the launch of two other new grades, Obodo in 2025 and Utapate in 2024, Nigeria, whic,h as Africa’s top oil exporter, seeks to strengthen its standing within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+)
Cawthorne crude is scheduled for export in the third week of March and has an API gravity of 36.4, making it similar in quality to Nigeria’s Bonny Light, which is prized for high petrol and diesel yields.
According to Reuters, citing a trading source, the state oil national company issued a tender last week for cargo loading between March 24 and 25.
Analysts at Kpler noted that the new grade is expected to be exported via the Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel Cawthorne, which has a storage capacity of about 2.2 million barrels. The vessel is designed to enhance transportation and production from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 18 and nearby assets in the Eastern Niger Delta.
Kpler estimates that, based on storage capacity, Cawthorne could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate output from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day to around 1.7 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.
Nigeria’s crude oil production recently dropped from the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with output at 1.48 million barrels per day recorded in January, according to OPEC data.
Beyond increasing Nigeria’s crude offerings to the international market, the introduction of Cawthorne could also attract buyers seeking specific light, sweet crude qualities, buoy foreign exchange earnings, which would help strengthen government revenue and ease borrowing needs.
New crude grades are typically differentiated by sulfur content, API gravity, and production source, enabling producers to target specific refinery configurations and market segments.
In November 2024, NNPC officially launched the Utapate crude oil blend in the international market, describing it as a milestone for Nigeria’s export profile.
Earlier in July 2024, NNPC and its partner, Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO), lifted the first 950,000-barrel cargo of Utapate crude, which was shipped to Spain.
Economy
Moniepoint Research Shows Diminishing Role of Cash in Nightlife Payments
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report released by Africa’s leading all-in-one financial ecosystem, Moniepoint Incorporated, has revealed that the use of cash for financial transactions is gradually dying due to security concerns.
The study, which looked into transaction data of over 27,000 clubs, bars, and lounges, showed that bank transfers dominated, followed closely by card payments, with cash actively discouraged. It was observed that transfers outpace card payments by nearly 2 million transactions during peak nighttime hours across its network.
In the research titled The Business of Community Nightlife in Nigeria, findings provided a rare, data-driven look into the country’s informal night economy.
While high-end Detty December venues grabbed headlines with daily revenues of N360 million and table prices reaching N1.2 million, Moniepoint’s study shifted the spotlight to the “community nightlife” where roadside bars, suya spots, and neighbourhood joints form the bedrock of social life for millions of Nigerians.
One of the study’s most operationally significant findings concerns the timing of spending. Nightlife in Nigeria runs late, but economically, the night is decided early.
Transaction volumes begin climbing sharply from 8 pm, peak before midnight, and then decline steadily even as venues remain full. By the time the night is at its longest, purchasing activity has already wound down.
However, for bar operators, this has clear practical implications – the most critical hours for staffing, stocking, vendor payment and cash flow management are the earliest hours of the day between midnight and 6 am.
The report further underscores the sector’s role in employment, noting that local bars typically expand their workforce by 30-50 per cent on peak nights. Conservative estimates suggest that at least 54,000 people are engaged in nightlife labour every night across Nigeria.
It was also observed that the most common transaction narrations from the data sourced – “food”, “pay”, “sent”, “pos”, “cash” – reflect the full breadth of nightlife spending: street food, club entry, lounge tabs, transport, and afterparties. Digital payments have gained huge traction in Nigeria’s social space.
While alcohol remains a key revenue driver, the data shows that food is the quiet stabiliser of Nigeria’s night economy, particularly in local and informal settings. In several neighbourhood venues, bottled water and meals outsell beer and spirits, especially early in the evening.
Lagos leads in sheer concentration of nightlife establishments, with 4,856 bars, clubs, and lounges on the Moniepoint network. FCT follows with 2,515, then Rivers (2,362), Delta (1,930), and Edo (1,574).
Katsina leads the country in nighttime food truck payment value, with vendors pulling in over N130 million in the last 12 months. Kwara State leads in transaction count. Nigeria’s nightlife economy is distributed, not overly elitist.
On the lending side, the report noted that a significant share of loan requests from bar and lounge operators is directed toward renovations, furniture, lighting, and sound systems, showing that investments are intended to attract and retain customers in a competitive sector where ambience plays a decisive role.
Commenting on the report, the chief executive of Moniepoint, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, said, “Nigeria’s local bars and night-time operators are not peripheral to the economy; they are a critical part of its architecture. We see a substantial and sustained economic sector that employs hundreds of thousands of Nigerians every night and deserves the same attention we give to agriculture, healthcare, and retail.
“Our goal is to make sure every one of those businesses has the tools to grow. From giving credit to finance renovations and sound systems to providing same-day settlement that allows vendors to restock and with tools like Moniebook that power inventory management and reconciliation, Moniepoint is ensuring that this vital artery of the nation’s economy remains viable and empowering.”
Economy
CBN Reduces Interest Rate by 50 Basis Points to 26.50%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has cut the interest rate by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent.
Nigeria’s apex bank announced this during its two-day 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which concluded on Tuesday in Abuja.
This comes after the country’s interest rate cooled in January to 15.10 per cent from 15.15 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), strengthening the case for a reduction.
The CBN Governor, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said all members of the MPC unanimously agreed upon the decision.
“The committee decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent,” he said.
Mr Cardoso stated that the liquidity ratio was maintained at 30 per cent, and the standing facilities corridor was adjusted to +50 to -450 basis points around the monetary policy rate.
He said the committee retained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45 per cent for commercial banks and 16 per cent for merchant banks, while the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits was equally maintained.
The CBN uses the MPR, which works as the benchmark interest rate, to manage inflation, macroeconomic stability, and liquidity.
Last November, the MPC retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent. The last time the apex bank cut interest rates was in September last year, to 27 per cent from 27.50 per cent after a series of easing in inflation.
Market analysts had argued for higher interest cuts due to results seen in the CBN’s inflation targeting framework. Meanwhile, some say the 50 basis points reduction will offer a temporary reprieve as inflation heads for a single-digit target in the coming months.
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