Economy
Growth in Money Supply Falls Below Targets
By FSDH Research
The monetary aggregates (narrow money and broad money) as at July 2017 show that the annualised growth rate in money supply is below the target that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set for the year 2017. In Nigeria, narrow money supply (M1) is the sum of demand deposits and currency in circulation less the cash currency held in deposit money banks’ vaults.
Quasi money supply (QM) is the savings deposits plus time deposits. Broad money supply (M2) is the sum of M1 and QM (M2 = M1 + QM). The M2 decreased by 5.08% to N22.20trillion in July 2017 from N23.39trillion in December 2016. This is lower than the CBN’s growth target of 10.29% for the year 2017. The major drop in M2 is from M1, which dropped by 6.71% to N10.33trillion in July 2017, from N11.07trillion in December 2016.
The QM also dropped by 3.62% to N11.87trillion from N12.32trillion in December 2016. The need to maintain foreign exchange stability and to curb the high inflation rate in the country, which stood at 16.05% as at July 2017, were the main reasons the CBN adopted restrictive monetary policy stance.
According to the CBN, the net domestic credit increased marginally by 1.92% to N27.16trillion in July 2017 from N26.65trillion in December 2016.
The annualised growth rate in the net domestic credit in July 2017 was 3.29%, below the target growth rate of 17.93% for 2017. The net domestic credit to the Federal Government increased by 6.88% to N4.99trillion in July 2017 from N4.67trillion in December 2016. The net domestic credit to private sector also increased marginally by 0.87% to N22.17trillion in July 2017 from N21.98trillion in December 2016.
In another development, the Nigerian economy recorded a favourable trade balance for the third consecutive quarter in Q2 2017. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) the trade surplus stood at N506.5billion in Q2 2017. The total trade stood at N5.70trillion in Q2, 2017, an increase of 7.7% from N5.29trillion recorded in Q1 2017. Exports recorded an increase of 3.2% to N3.10trillion in Q2 2017, from N3trillion in Q1 2017. Imports on the other hand, increased by 13.5% to N2.60trillion in Q2, 2017, from N2.29trillion in Q1 2017. A further analysis of total trade by sector in Q2, 2017 shows that Crude Oil trade accounted for 42.57% (N2.42trillion) of total trade during the period. This was followed by the Other Oil sector, accounting for 21.90% (N1.24trillion).
The value of agriculture imports stood at N232.1billion in Q2, 2017, 16.01% higher than N200billion in Q1, 2017 and 61.02% higher than Q2, 2016 figure. Raw Materials imports increased by 17.4% to N298.84billion in Q2, 2017, from N246.35billion in Q1, 2017. Manufactured Goods imports also recorded a growth of 9.5% to N1.1trillion in Q2, 2017, compared with N995billion in Q1, 2017 but 18.33% lower than Q2, 2016 figure. Solid Minerals imports increased by 1,527.4% to N191.5billion in Q2, 2017, from N11.7billion in Q1, 2017, and 1,947.5% higher than Q2, 2016 figure.
On the exports side; Agriculture exports stood at N29.71billion in Q2, 2017, a marginal decrease of 1.03% from N30.02billion in Q1, 2017 but 94.05% higher than Q2, 2016 figure. Raw Materials exports increased by 31.76% to N21.76billion in Q2, 2017, from N14.85billion in Q1, 2017.
Manufactured Goods exports decreased by 16.98% to N81.5billion in Q2, 2017, from N95billion in Q1, 2017. Solid Minerals exports decreased by 27.58% to N3.06billion in Q2, 2017, from N4.24billion in Q1, 2017 but 122.01% higher than Q2, 2016 figure. We expect foreign trade to remain favourable for Nigeria for the rest of 2017.
The CBN may maintain the current tight monetary policy stance until there is sustainable stability in the foreign exchange market. There are opportunities for revenue and exports diversification from the developments of solid minerals and agriculture sectors to meet the consumers’ and industrial sectors’ in Nigeria. Agriculture can supply the raw material requirements of the manufacturing sector if there are appropriate policies to increase production and quality of yields. More job opportunities and additional revenue will also be generated through the linkage between agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
Economy
NGX Key Performance Indicators Rebound 0.04%
By Dipo Olowookere
About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.
Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.
According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.
The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.
A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.
On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.
Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.
Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.
Economy
Naira Trades N1,417/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.
The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.
Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.
Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.
Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
Economy
Oil Prices Rise Amid Lingering Iran Worries
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.
Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.
The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.
Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.
The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.
Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.
The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.
According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.
Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.
Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.
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