Economy
IMF Faults CBN Approach to Persistent FX Shortages
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has faulted the strategies being deployed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to address the foreign exchange (FX) shortages in the country.
In July 2021, the apex bank, after a monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, announced the discontinuation of forex sales to Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators, claiming they were part of the FX crisis in the country.
At the next MPC meeting, the CBN, through its governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, declared that the black market was illegal and blamed a platform aggregating the rates at the segment, AbokiFX, of manipulating the rates, threatening a clampdown. The authorities also made the media, including Business Post, to stop reporting parallel market rates, insinuating that it was against the law.
On Friday, November 19, 2021, the IMF, in a statement made available to this newspaper, condemned the approach of the central bank to the “persistent” FX shortages, stressing that it was “negatively impacting confidence.”
It advised the bank to adopt the free-float exchange rate regime and throw away the “administrative measures” policy, emphasising that “without urgent fiscal and exchange rate reforms, the medium-term outlook (of Nigeria) faces sub-par growth.”
The global lender admitted that “the Nigerian economy is recovering from a historic downturn benefiting from government policy support, rising oil prices and international financial assistance.”
It further noted that the pro-active approach of the government worked wonders to put “the COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities” under control, but stated that “with the emergence of fuel subsidies and slow progress on revenue mobilisation, the fiscal outlook faces significant risks.”
It stated that in the medium term, there are upside risks from faster-than-expected reaching of the Dangote refinery’s production capacity along with the effective implementation of the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act in terms of higher manufacturing production and investment in the oil sector.
Commenting further on the FX system in Nigeria, the IMF wants the CBN to fully adopt the “unified market-clearing exchange rate” as it would “help build foreign exchange buffers through higher capital inflows.”
It noted that, “Despite the recent SDR allocation and a successful Eurobond issuance, gross reserves remain significantly below the IMF’s recommended adequacy levels.
“Slow FX reforms and uncertainties regarding the ability to repatriate foreign funds have discouraged new capital inflows. With an external position that is assessed to be weaker than implied by Nigeria’s economic fundamentals and desired policies, a narrow export base, and limited capital inflows, the mission recommended preserving foreign exchange reserves through sustainable policies. The mission assessed Nigeria’s capacity to repay the outstanding credit from the 2020 Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to be adequate.”
It further disclosed that “to preserve competitiveness, any exchange rate adjustment should be accompanied by clear communications regarding exchange rate policy going forward, macroeconomic policies to contain inflation and structural policies to facilitate new investment.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south territory with a decline of 0.56 per cent on Wednesday, April 2.
This brought down the market capitalisation by N13 billion to N2.417 trillion from N2.430 trillion, and downed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 22.57 points to 4,062.87 points from the previous session’s 4,062.87 points.
It was observed that the NASD exchange ended with three price gainers and three price losers during the trading day.
MRS Oil Plc depreciated by N19.00 to close at N171.00 per unit compared with the previous price of N190.00 per unit, NASD Plc lost N4.14 to trade at N37.36 per share compared with Wednesday’s N41.50 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc gave up N2.00 to sell at N78.00 per unit versus N80.00 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 19 Kobo to N93.00 per share from N92.81 per share, Food Concepts Plc expanded by 15 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.72 per unit, and Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc improved by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities dipped by 91.8 per cent to 260.2 million units from 3.2 billion units, the value of securities went down by 98.1 per cent to N154.2 million from N8.3 billion, while the number of deals soared by 53.3 per cent to 46 deals from 30 deals.
GNI Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 56.9 million units valued at N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.
The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was also GNI Plc with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.2 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units exchanged for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira dropped N2.09 or 0.15 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 2, to trade at N1,380.79/$1 compared with Wednesday’s rate of N1,378.70/$1.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N2.77 to quote at N1,824.86/£1 versus the N1,836.57/£1 it was traded at midweek, and improved its value against the Euro by N10.54 to N1,591.92/€1 from N1,602.46/€1.
Yesterday was the last trading session of the week for the local currency in the spot market, as the market will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter Holiday.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the greenback yesterday at N1,405/$1, but gained N8 at the GTBank FX counter to settle at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,396/$1.
Pressure eased on the domestic currency as strong policy indicators have helped calm the majority of worries within the financial systems. Particularly in the remittance segment, the apex bank has directed all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to route remittance transactions through designated Naira settlement accounts in banks, a move aimed at boosting transparency and channelling more foreign exchange into the formal market.
This helps take off pressure from the foreign reserves, which have fallen below the $50 billion mark as they are gradually decreasing rather than falling sharply.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish on Thursday, as macro sentiment shifted against recent optimism after reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about disruptions to a key global oil route.
The remarks came after U.S. President Trump on Wednesday night vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz would “open naturally” once the war ends.
Cardano (ADA) chalked up 1.9 per cent to trade at $0.2435, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 1.2 per cent to $0.0912, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.8 per cent to $2,066.37, Bitcoin (BTC) added 0.5 per cent to sell at $67,080.53, Solana (SOL) increased by 0.5 per cent to $79.91, and Ripple (XRP) jumped 0.2 per cent to $1.31.
Conversely, Binance Coin (BNB) dipped 0.7 per cent to $586.90, and TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.3 per cent to $0.3147, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock market was relatively flat on Friday, as the bears and the bulls shared the spoils of war, though investor sentiment turned bullish compared with the preceding session’s bearish posture.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited showed that the All-Share Index (ASI) was marginally down by 4.66 points as it ended at 201,698.89 points versus Wednesday’s 201,703.55 points, and the market capitalisation slightly contracted by N3 billion to N129.806 trillion from N129.809 trillion.
Customs Street was shut on Friday because of the public holidays declared by the federal government today and next Monday.
Business Post reports that John Holt declined by 9.91 per cent to N15.45, Abbey Mortgage Bank shed 9.60 per cent to trade at N8.95, International Energy Insurance slipped by 6.48 per cent to N3.32, Chams shrank by 5.30 per cent to N3.75, and Tantalizers depreciated by 5.18 per cent to N4.03.
On the flip side, Unilever Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent to N103.40, Fortis Global Insurance gained 9.82 per cent to trade at N1.23, Multiverse appreciated 9.81 per cent to N20.15, Legend Internet advanced by 9.38 per cent to N6.30, and Zichis grew by 9.02 per cent to N14.14.
The market breadth index was positive during the trading session, as there were 35 appreciating stocks and 24 depreciating stocks.
Yesterday, investors traded 560.0 million equities valued at N19.3 billion in 49,676 deals, in contrast to the 815.5 million equities worth N33.3 billion transacted in 52,641 deals in the preceding day, representing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 31.33 per cent, 42.04 per cent, and 5.63 per cent, respectively.
Secure Electronic Technology dominated the activity log with 59.7 million shares valued at N61.1 million, Wema Bank exchanged 52.0 million equities worth N1.4 billion, VFD Group transacted 36.0 million stocks for N410.5 million, Access Holdings sold 35.3 million shares valued at N914.8 million, and Chams traded 31.0 million equities worth N115.0 million.
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