Economy
IMF Faults CBN Approach to Persistent FX Shortages
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has faulted the strategies being deployed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to address the foreign exchange (FX) shortages in the country.
In July 2021, the apex bank, after a monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, announced the discontinuation of forex sales to Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators, claiming they were part of the FX crisis in the country.
At the next MPC meeting, the CBN, through its governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, declared that the black market was illegal and blamed a platform aggregating the rates at the segment, AbokiFX, of manipulating the rates, threatening a clampdown. The authorities also made the media, including Business Post, to stop reporting parallel market rates, insinuating that it was against the law.
On Friday, November 19, 2021, the IMF, in a statement made available to this newspaper, condemned the approach of the central bank to the “persistent” FX shortages, stressing that it was “negatively impacting confidence.”
It advised the bank to adopt the free-float exchange rate regime and throw away the “administrative measures” policy, emphasising that “without urgent fiscal and exchange rate reforms, the medium-term outlook (of Nigeria) faces sub-par growth.”
The global lender admitted that “the Nigerian economy is recovering from a historic downturn benefiting from government policy support, rising oil prices and international financial assistance.”
It further noted that the pro-active approach of the government worked wonders to put “the COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities” under control, but stated that “with the emergence of fuel subsidies and slow progress on revenue mobilisation, the fiscal outlook faces significant risks.”
It stated that in the medium term, there are upside risks from faster-than-expected reaching of the Dangote refinery’s production capacity along with the effective implementation of the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act in terms of higher manufacturing production and investment in the oil sector.
Commenting further on the FX system in Nigeria, the IMF wants the CBN to fully adopt the “unified market-clearing exchange rate” as it would “help build foreign exchange buffers through higher capital inflows.”
It noted that, “Despite the recent SDR allocation and a successful Eurobond issuance, gross reserves remain significantly below the IMF’s recommended adequacy levels.
“Slow FX reforms and uncertainties regarding the ability to repatriate foreign funds have discouraged new capital inflows. With an external position that is assessed to be weaker than implied by Nigeria’s economic fundamentals and desired policies, a narrow export base, and limited capital inflows, the mission recommended preserving foreign exchange reserves through sustainable policies. The mission assessed Nigeria’s capacity to repay the outstanding credit from the 2020 Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to be adequate.”
It further disclosed that “to preserve competitiveness, any exchange rate adjustment should be accompanied by clear communications regarding exchange rate policy going forward, macroeconomic policies to contain inflation and structural policies to facilitate new investment.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production declined by 64,000 barrels per day or 4.4 per cent to 1.401 million barrels per day in April 2025 from 1.465 million barrels per day recorded in the preceding month (March).
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) April Monthly Oil Market Report revealed this, saying the numbers are based on direct communication from the producing countries.
The report also indicated that oil production fell by 6.6 per cent below OPEC’s 1.5 million barrels per day quota, and approximately 32 per cent belief of the country’s 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day.
Nigeria’s persistent shortfalls in meeting government production targets comes from challenges such as underinvestment and rampant oil theft, all contributing to suppressed output.
Nigeria’s oil production peaked at 2.5 million barrels decades ago and despite ambitious 3-4 million barrels promises by subsequent governments, the highest actualisation in recent times have been 1.8 million barrels per day.
The decline in oil production since then and the falling oil prices in the international market are likely to strain fiscal revenues, worsening budgetary pressures
Market analysts have pointed out that this will impact national reserves, thereby reducing the availability of resources for developmental spending.
While the government has no control over global oil prices, it can, to some extent, meet its OPEC production quota.
Therefore, the government must intensify efforts by enforcing stricter penalties for oil theft, while fostering greater collaboration with local communities.
Simultaneously, there is a need to attract investment in the sector by ensuring that regulatory bodies and the judiciary work together to provide an enabling environment for investment and modernisation of oil infrastructure.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report has shown the wide adoption of digital currencies in Nigeria despite efforts by the authorities to discourage the use of crypto.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has yet to lift the ban of crypto transactions through the banking system in the country after almost five years.
In a report made available to Business Post by a venture capital firm, Hashed Emergent, it was stated that the USDT/Naira stablecoin pair has become the most traded on centralized exchanges, with stablecoin transfers in Nigeria nearing $3 billion in the first quarter of 2024, signalling the practical adoption of blockchain for real-world challenges like inflation and cross-border payments.
Last year, Nigeria ranked second globally for crypto adoption, according to Chainalysis, with $59 billion in crypto value received—$24 billion of that in stablecoins.
Stablecoin trading has overtaken Bitcoin trading on centralized exchanges, reflecting changing behaviour: for many, crypto is not speculative—it’s practical; it is how people hedge against inflation, send money, and make real-world payments.
According to the report, national agencies and multiple state governments are already implementing blockchain-based solutions across areas like identity verification, land registries, education records, and healthcare systems.
These aren’t pilots; they’re operational systems designed to improve transparency, efficiency, and trust in public services.
However, integration into existing public infrastructure remains a key challenge. Many legacy systems lack the technical readiness or interoperability needed for seamless adoption, and institutional capacity gaps—such as limited digital skills and fragmented procurement processes—continue to slow implementation.
Without addressing these bottlenecks, the long-term impact of public sector blockchain adoption may remain limited despite early momentum.
By Adedapo Adesanya
ExxonMobil is planning a $1.5 billion investment in deepwater exploration and development of the Usan oilfield in Nigeria.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed this in a statement, noting that commitment will be implemented between this current quarter (Q2 2025) and 2027.
This announcement, it said, was made during a visit by ExxonMobil’s Managing Director in Nigeria, Mr Shane Harris, to the Commission’s Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Mr Gbenga Komolafe.
The company proposed a Final Investment Decision (FID) for late Q3 2025, subject to final Field Development Plan (FDP) approval as well as internal and partner funding approvals, the upstream regulator added.
According to the NUPRC, this is in addition to investment targeted at the accelerated development of the Owowo and Erha deepwater oil fields, amongst others.
Mr Harris, while speaking, stated that the planned capital deployment reflects ExxonMobil’s confidence in Nigeria’s upstream potential and its dedication to playing a pivotal role in the sector’s growth.
He also voiced ExxonMobil’s support for the NUPRC’s “Project 1 Million Barrels” initiative, which aims to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2.4 million barrels per day in the medium term.
The initiative has gotten commitments from other oil firms operating in the country since it was floated last year.
On his part, the NUPRC Chief Executive, Mr Komolafe, welcomed the announcement, reaffirming the NUPRC’s role as a business enabler and pledging regulatory support to facilitate ExxonMobil’s operations.
Mr Komolafe highlighted the importance of sustained collaboration between regulators and investors to meet Nigeria’s production and energy security goals, highlighting compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) and the need for transparent pricing and accountability in the sector.
“The commission is committed to the implementation of Section 109 of the PIA, which addresses the subject of willing buyer, willing seller, and we urge producers to comply,” he stated.
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