Economy
IMF Faults CBN Approach to Persistent FX Shortages
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has faulted the strategies being deployed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to address the foreign exchange (FX) shortages in the country.
In July 2021, the apex bank, after a monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja, announced the discontinuation of forex sales to Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators, claiming they were part of the FX crisis in the country.
At the next MPC meeting, the CBN, through its governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, declared that the black market was illegal and blamed a platform aggregating the rates at the segment, AbokiFX, of manipulating the rates, threatening a clampdown. The authorities also made the media, including Business Post, to stop reporting parallel market rates, insinuating that it was against the law.
On Friday, November 19, 2021, the IMF, in a statement made available to this newspaper, condemned the approach of the central bank to the “persistent” FX shortages, stressing that it was “negatively impacting confidence.”
It advised the bank to adopt the free-float exchange rate regime and throw away the “administrative measures” policy, emphasising that “without urgent fiscal and exchange rate reforms, the medium-term outlook (of Nigeria) faces sub-par growth.”
The global lender admitted that “the Nigerian economy is recovering from a historic downturn benefiting from government policy support, rising oil prices and international financial assistance.”
It further noted that the pro-active approach of the government worked wonders to put “the COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities” under control, but stated that “with the emergence of fuel subsidies and slow progress on revenue mobilisation, the fiscal outlook faces significant risks.”
It stated that in the medium term, there are upside risks from faster-than-expected reaching of the Dangote refinery’s production capacity along with the effective implementation of the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act in terms of higher manufacturing production and investment in the oil sector.
Commenting further on the FX system in Nigeria, the IMF wants the CBN to fully adopt the “unified market-clearing exchange rate” as it would “help build foreign exchange buffers through higher capital inflows.”
It noted that, “Despite the recent SDR allocation and a successful Eurobond issuance, gross reserves remain significantly below the IMF’s recommended adequacy levels.
“Slow FX reforms and uncertainties regarding the ability to repatriate foreign funds have discouraged new capital inflows. With an external position that is assessed to be weaker than implied by Nigeria’s economic fundamentals and desired policies, a narrow export base, and limited capital inflows, the mission recommended preserving foreign exchange reserves through sustainable policies. The mission assessed Nigeria’s capacity to repay the outstanding credit from the 2020 Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to be adequate.”
It further disclosed that “to preserve competitiveness, any exchange rate adjustment should be accompanied by clear communications regarding exchange rate policy going forward, macroeconomic policies to contain inflation and structural policies to facilitate new investment.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.
On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.
Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.
On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.
Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.
ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.
Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.
China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.
For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.
In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.
Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.
It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.
The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.
Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.
Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.
On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.
During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).
In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.
Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.
According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.
These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.
Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.
However, interested investor can only buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.
This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.
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