Economy
IMF Forecasts 3.2% Growth for Nigeria in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Nigeria would witness a 3.2 per cent economic growth in 2023 and 3.0 per cent in 2024, in line with April’s WEO projections, reflecting security issues in the oil sector just as currency depreciation and inflation grip Africa’s largest economy.
This is part of a wider drop as global growth is projected to fall from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2024.
The global lender disclosed this in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for July 2023: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges, which said though the forecast for 2023 was modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 WEO, it remained weak by historical standards.
“Compared with projections in the April 2023 WEO, growth has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points for 2023, with no change for 2024.
“The forecast for 2023–24 remains well below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 per cent.
“It is also below the historical average across broad income groups, in overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as per capita GDP terms. ”
The report said advanced economies continued to drive the decline in growth from 2022 to 2023, with weaker manufacturing, as well as idiosyncratic factors, offsetting stronger services activity.
“For advanced economies, the growth slowdown projected for 2023 remained significant, from 2.7 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023.
“About 93 per cent of advanced economies are projected to have lower growth in 2023, and growth in 2024 among this group of economies is projected to remain at 1.4 per cent.”
While the report said in emerging markets and developing economies, the growth outlook was broadly stable for 2023 and 2024, although with notable shifts across regions.
“For emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to be broadly stable at 4.0 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024, with modest revisions of 0.1 percentage point for 2023 and –0.1 percentage point for 2024.”
The report showed growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decline to 3.5 per cent in 2023 before picking up to 4.1 per cent in 2024.
The report said global headline inflation was expected to fall from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 6.8 per cent in 2023 and 5.2 per cent in 2024.
“Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward. ”
It said inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an intensification of the war in Ukraine and extreme weather-related events, triggering more restrictive monetary policy.
The report said financial sector turbulence could resume as markets adjust to further policy tightening by central banks.
“China’s recovery could slow, in part as a result of unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.
“Sovereign debt distress could spread to a wider group of economies.”
It, however, said on the upside inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient.
The report said in most economies, the policy priorities remained to achieve sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability.
“Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring.
“Should market strains materialise, countries should provide liquidity promptly while mitigating the possibility of moral hazard.
“They should also build fiscal buffers, with the composition of fiscal adjustment ensuring targeted support for the most vulnerable.
The report said improvements to the supply side of the economy would facilitate fiscal consolidation and a smoother decline of inflation toward target levels.
Economy
Oil Exports to Drop as Shell Commences Maintenance on Bonga FPSO
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s oil exports will drop in February following the shutdown of the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel scheduled for turnaround maintenance.
Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) Limited confirmed the development in a statement issued, adding that gas output will also decline during the maintenance period.
This comes as SNEPCo begun turnaround maintenance on the Bonga FPSO, the statement signed by its Communications Manager, Mrs Gladys Afam-Anadu, said, describing the exercise as a statutory integrity assurance programme designed to extend the facility’s operational lifespan.
SNEPCo Managing Director, Mr Ronald Adams, said the maintenance would ensure safe, efficient operations for another 15 years.
“The scheduled maintenance is designed to reduce unplanned deferments and strengthen the asset’s overall resilience.
“We expect to resume operations in March following completion of the turnaround,” he said.
Mr Adams said the scope included inspections, certification, regulatory checks, integrity upgrades, engineering modifications and subsea assurance activities.
“The FPSO, about 120 kilometres offshore in over 1,000 metres of water, can produce 225,000 barrels of oil daily.
“It also produces 150 million standard cubic feet of gas per day,” he said.
He said maintaining the facility was critical to Nigeria’s production stability, energy security and revenue objectives.
Mr Adams noted that the 2024 Final Investment Decision on Bonga North increased the importance of the FPSO’s reliability. He said the turnaround would prepare the facility for additional volumes from the Bonga North subsea tie-back project.
According to him, the last turnaround maintenance was conducted in October 2022.
“On February 1, 2023, the asset produced its one billionth barrel since operations began in 2005,” Mr Adams said.
SNEPCo operates the Bonga field in partnership with Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria (Deepwater) Limited and Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited, under a Production Sharing Contract with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
The last turnaround maintenance activity on the FPSO took place in October 2022. On February 1, the following year, the asset delivered its 1 billionth barrel of oil since production commenced in 2005.
Economy
Nigeria Earns N1.17trn from Petroleum Sector in November 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria earned N1.17 trillion from the oil and gas industry in November 2025, lower than the N1.396 trillion generated in October 2025 by 16.2 per cent, according to data presented to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The CBN, in the latest data available, noted that the N1.17 trillion earnings from the petroleum industry in November 2025 represented 96.4 per cent of the N1.214 trillion revenue budgeted for the sector for the month under review.
In comparison, revenue from the petroleum industry in October 2025 represented 94.71 per cent of the N1.474 trillion budgeted for the sector in the month.
In its breakdown of revenue from the oil and gas industry in November 2025, the central bank stated that the country earned N37.134 billion from crude oil sales, climbing by 395.58 per cent from N7.493 trillion recorded in the previous month; while revenue from gas sales appreciated by 25.22 per cent to N7.265 billion in November, compared with N5.802 billion recorded in October 2025.
Furthermore, the CBN noted that revenue from crude oil royalties dipped by 25.6 per cent, from N790.086 billion in October 2025 to N587.865 billion in November; while miscellaneous oil revenue more than doubled to N1.356 billion, from N447.279 million in October 2025.
Also, it stated that royalties from gas dipped by 38.1 per cent to N9.405 billion in November, from N15.195 billion in October, while the country earned N51.842 billion from gas flare penalties in November 2025, down from N61.898 billion recorded in the previous month.
The apex bank added that revenue from companies’ income tax (CIT) from upstream oil industry operations stood at N106.106 billion in the month under review, as against N73.025 billion in October 2025.
It also stated that revenue from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) stood at N301.471 billion; rentals – N775.162 million; while taxes stood at N67.242 billion in November 2025; as against N242.621 billion, N3.197 billion, and N196.277 billion in October 2025.
In addition, the apex bank reported that from the country’s oil earnings in November 2025, N18.163 billion was deducted for 13 per cent refund on subsidy, priority projects and Police Trust Fund from 1999 to 2021; while N2.872 billion was deducted by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited in respect of its 13 per cent management fee and frontier exploration fund.
It added that N26.401 billion was deducted and collected by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2025, being four per cent cost of collection; while N49.768 billion was transferred to the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund from gas flare penalties in the same month.
Economy
NGX Weekly Trading Volume, Value Down as Investors Weigh Risks, Benefits
By Dipo Olowookere
The decision of investors weighing the risks and benefits of holding Nigerian stocks took a toll on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week.
The bourse suffered a marginal week-on-week 0.09 per cent loss, with the All-Share Index (ASI) down to 165,370.40 points. However, the market capitalisation gained 0.18 per cent in the five-day trading week to settle at N106.153 trillion.
Data from Customs Street indicated that all other indices finished higher apart from the NGX 30, NGX CG, premium, banking, pension, growth and pension broad indices, which respectively depreciated by 0.13 per cent, 0.63 per cent, 0.75 per cent, 0.63 per cent, 0.41 per cent, 1.13 per cent, and 0.22 per cent, respectively.
The level of activity also depleted in the week as the market recorded a turnover of 3.087 billion shares worth N81.505 billion in 222,185 deals compared with the 3.748 billion shares valued at N99.865 billion traded in 237,179 deals a week earlier.
The financial services industry was the most active with 1.495 billion shares valued at N33.923 billion traded in 83,939 deals, contributing 48.45 per cent and 41.62 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.
The services sector sold 443.222 million equities worth N4.936 billion in 17,615 deals, and the ICT space transacted 279.520 million stocks valued at N6.443 billion in 24,552 deals.
The three most active stocks for the week were Veritas Kapital Assurance, Cutix, and Secure Electronic Technology, accounting for 513.382 million units worth N1.139 billion in 4,895 deals, contributing 16.63 per cent and 1.40 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Business Post reports that 44 stocks appreciated during the week versus 58 stocks a week earlier, 49 shares depreciated versus 40 shares in the previous week, and 55 equities closed flat versus 50 equities in the preceding week.
Zichis was the best-performing stock with a price appreciation of 59.92 per cent to sell for N4.19, Omatek expanded by 49.25 per cent to N3.00, Union Homes REIT grew by 32.94 per cent to N94.85, Morison Industries surged by 32.85 per cent to N9.99, and SCOA Nigeria grew by 32.77 per cent to N31.60.
Neimeth ended the week as worst-performing stock after it shed 26.04 per cent to trade at N9.80, Living Trust Mortgage Bank shrank by 21.36 per cent to N4.05, May and Baker lost 19.54 per cent to quote at N35.00, Livestock Feeds crashed by 13.70 per cent to N6.30, and Austin Laz dropped 13.14 per cent to finish at N3.90.
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