Economy
Nigerian Economy to Grow 2.6% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022 – IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2021, the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday said.
The country’s gross domestic product is expected to achieve progress thanks to high oil prices, even if production will remain below pre-COVID levels, it added.
Meanwhile, the Bretton Wood institution then predicted a 2.7 per cent growth in Africa’s most populous country in 2022.
For the continent, the lender forecast that Africa’s economic rebound from pandemic-induced shrinkage would be weaker than in the rest of the world in 2021 and 2022.
Low rates of vaccination against COVID-19 across the continent top the list of reasons for the slower recovery, the Washington-based institution said in a biannual report on the region.
Growth for sub-Saharan Africa should reach 3.7 per cent in 2021 and 3.8 per cent in 2022, a welcome but relatively modest recovery, the IMF said in its forecast.
Those figures would nevertheless be “the slowest in the world given that the developed economies will grow by more than five per cent and the emerging or developing countries by more than six per cent,” it added.
With just 2.5 per cent of people vaccinated against COVID-19, lockdowns have been the sole option for containing the virus,” said IMF.
Even though 12 billion doses of vaccine are to be produced in 2021, it will likely take more than a year for a significant number of Africans to be vaccinated, the Fund added.
Although Africa has been the region of the world least affected by the pandemic, it has also experienced several successive waves of the coronavirus, and the lender pointed out that there is little reason to believe that there won’t be repeated waves going forward.
The Fund blamed “stockpiling by advanced economies, export restrictions by major vaccine manufacturing countries, and demands for booster shots in advanced economies” for shortages in Africa that could continue for the foreseeable future.
It added that “international cooperation on vaccination is critical to address the threat of repeated waves.
“This would help prevent the divergent recovery paths of sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world from hardening and becoming permanent fault lines, which would jeopardize decades of hard-won social and economic progress.”
In South Africa, growth should reach five per cent this year, better than expected, but return to a more modest level (+ 2.2 per cent) next year for want of structural reforms, according to the IMF.
In Angola, another economy that relies heavily on oil, the IMF forecasts a 0.7 per cent GDP contraction in 2021, before the growth of 2.7 per cent in 2022, ending six consecutive years of recession.
In tourism-dependent countries such as Cape Verde, Mauritius, The Gambia or Seychelles, growth has returned to pre-COVID levels but the losses sustained in 2020 will be difficult to erase.
Meanwhile, the most fragile economies include Sahel nations facing jihadist insurgency or political tensions, like Chad and Guinea.
The security situation there could shake the expected rebound in consumption and investor confidence, the IMF warned.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
On Tuesday, December 17, 2024, President Bola Tinubu will present the 2025 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly.
The size of the 2025 Appropriation Bill is about N47.9 trillion and would be presented to the parliament for approval.
Speaking at the plenary on Thursday, December 12, 2024, the President of the Senate, Mr Godswill Akpabio, said the presentation by Mr Tinubu would be at the chamber of the House of Representatives.
However, it is not certain if the lawmakers will pass the budget before December 31 to allow for a recent budget cycle of January to December.
Recall that on December 3, the senate approved the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) for 2025 to 2027.
This was after the President presented this the National Assembly on November 19 ahead of the consideration of the 2025 budget proposal.
In the MTEF/FSP, the government said it planned to borrow about N9.22 trillion from local and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit.
It pegged the crude oil benchmark at $75 per barrel and a daily oil production of 2.06 million barrels at an exchange rate of N1,400 to $1, and a targeted gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.4 percent.
At the plenary today, Mr Akpabio informed his colleagues that, “The President has made his intention known to the National Assembly to present the 2025 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly on December 17, 2024.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria added 150,000 barrels per day to its crude production in November 2024 as it continues to pursue an ambitious 2 million barrels per day target.
According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, up from 1.33 million barrels per day the previous month.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC revealed that at 1.48 million barrels per day, it is the continent’s leading oil producer, surpassing Algeria’s 908,000 barrels per day and Congo’s 268,000 barrels per day.
Business Post reports that OPEC doesn’t account for condensates, which Nigeria’s accounts for in its broader 2 million barrels per day target.
Despite the surge in production levels, Nigeria is still under producing its 1.5 million barrels per day output quota under a deal involving OPEC and 10 other producers known as OPEC+.
OPEC said it relied on primary data gotten through direct communication, noting that secondary sources reported 1.417 million barrels per day as Nigeria’s crude production in November — up from 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
The data also shows that OPEC’s total oil production among its 12 members rose by 104,000 barrels per day in the month under review.
According to secondary sources, the total of the 12 OPEC countries’ crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day in November 2024.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased”, OPEC said.
“At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.01 mb/d in November 2024, which is 219 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan and Malaysia,” the organisation added.
In a related development, OPEC trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time this year.
Now, the cartel expects the world’s oil demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previously 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, a 900,000 barrels per day cut from the previously expected 1.54 million barrels per day.
On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.
The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.
Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.
At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.
The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.
When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.
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