Economy
Nigerian Economy to Grow 2.6% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022 – IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2021, the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday said.
The country’s gross domestic product is expected to achieve progress thanks to high oil prices, even if production will remain below pre-COVID levels, it added.
Meanwhile, the Bretton Wood institution then predicted a 2.7 per cent growth in Africa’s most populous country in 2022.
For the continent, the lender forecast that Africa’s economic rebound from pandemic-induced shrinkage would be weaker than in the rest of the world in 2021 and 2022.
Low rates of vaccination against COVID-19 across the continent top the list of reasons for the slower recovery, the Washington-based institution said in a biannual report on the region.
Growth for sub-Saharan Africa should reach 3.7 per cent in 2021 and 3.8 per cent in 2022, a welcome but relatively modest recovery, the IMF said in its forecast.
Those figures would nevertheless be “the slowest in the world given that the developed economies will grow by more than five per cent and the emerging or developing countries by more than six per cent,” it added.
With just 2.5 per cent of people vaccinated against COVID-19, lockdowns have been the sole option for containing the virus,” said IMF.
Even though 12 billion doses of vaccine are to be produced in 2021, it will likely take more than a year for a significant number of Africans to be vaccinated, the Fund added.
Although Africa has been the region of the world least affected by the pandemic, it has also experienced several successive waves of the coronavirus, and the lender pointed out that there is little reason to believe that there won’t be repeated waves going forward.
The Fund blamed “stockpiling by advanced economies, export restrictions by major vaccine manufacturing countries, and demands for booster shots in advanced economies” for shortages in Africa that could continue for the foreseeable future.
It added that “international cooperation on vaccination is critical to address the threat of repeated waves.
“This would help prevent the divergent recovery paths of sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world from hardening and becoming permanent fault lines, which would jeopardize decades of hard-won social and economic progress.”
In South Africa, growth should reach five per cent this year, better than expected, but return to a more modest level (+ 2.2 per cent) next year for want of structural reforms, according to the IMF.
In Angola, another economy that relies heavily on oil, the IMF forecasts a 0.7 per cent GDP contraction in 2021, before the growth of 2.7 per cent in 2022, ending six consecutive years of recession.
In tourism-dependent countries such as Cape Verde, Mauritius, The Gambia or Seychelles, growth has returned to pre-COVID levels but the losses sustained in 2020 will be difficult to erase.
Meanwhile, the most fragile economies include Sahel nations facing jihadist insurgency or political tensions, like Chad and Guinea.
The security situation there could shake the expected rebound in consumption and investor confidence, the IMF warned.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria received its first credit rating upgrade since 2012 from S&P Global Ratings, driven by improved oil market conditions and the country’s growing ability to refine and export crude locally.
The credit ratings agency upgraded the country’s rating by one notch to B, five levels below investment grade, according to a statement on Friday.
It raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘ and affirmed its ‘B’ short-term ratings. It also raised its long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings on the sovereign to ‘ngA+/ngA-1’ from ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’.
S&P also cited Nigeria’s decision to liberalise the exchange rate as crucial to the development, and changed the outlook to stable.
The decision also comes as the federal government ruled out the reintroduction of subsidies on refined petroleum products, in order to avoid a return to larger budgetary deficits and drains on foreign currency (FX) liquidity.
S&P projected the general government deficit will widen to over 4 per cent of GDP on average during 2026 and 2027, a year of a general election.
It added that the implementation of reforms to broaden the tax base from very narrow levels is underpinning a steady decline in Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio to 338 per cent in 2026 versus 500 per cent in 2023.
The agency said it could raise ratings over the next two years if fiscal outcomes improve significantly, either due to fiscal consolidation or structurally higher revenue, resulting in lower debt service costs.
It, however, warned that it could also lower the ratings if the implementation of Nigeria’s reform programme, particularly the series of critical steps taken to liberalise the exchange rate in 2023, reverses.
On the oil production forecast, S&P expects 2026 production to average approximately 1.66 million barrels per day, including condensates.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
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