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Why 2026 Must Be the Year Nigeria’s Economy Works for All

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Nigeria’s Economy Works for All

By Blaise Udunze

As the new economic year begins in Nigeria, statements and policies emanating from government officials’ corridors project cautious optimism. One of the official narratives that expresses renewal of hope and confidence is the projection from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the economy is expected to continue expanding, with GDP growth at 4.49 percent, and headline inflation is projected to moderate to 12.9 percent. Despite grappling with shrinking oil revenues, rising public debt, and widening fiscal deficits as a nation, it is further projected that the foreign reserves are anticipated to exceed $50 billion. Policymakers presented these figures as evidence that the economy is stabilising and consolidating, irrespective of the clear evidence of years of turbulence.

Yet the concern for experts is that beyond the polished macroeconomic indicators lies a widening disconnect between statistical recovery and lived reality. While increasingly warning that stability is necessary, the views across academia, civil society, labour groups, and the private sector, experts clearly stated that it is not synonymous with sustainable growth, nor does it automatically improve living standards for millions of Nigerians grappling with unemployment, rising prices, and fragile livelihoods.

This development signals the economic debate entering 2026, as evident in the previous years, the argument that the year must not become another chapter in which rhetoric outpaces results. To them, it must place productivity, inclusion, and welfare at the heart of reform as all this must be informed via a decisive shift toward holistic, people-centered economic renewal.

The Numbers and the Narrative

There is no denying that certain macroeconomic indicators have improved. Tighter monetary policy in 2025, foreign exchange market unification, and efforts to rein in deficit financing have contributed to relative stability in inflation dynamics and exchange rate volatility.

However, economists interviewed by major national dailies argue that many of these gains remain largely “on paper.” They clearly stated that growth figures have not translated into broad-based job creation, rising real incomes, or improved business conditions for small enterprises. It is regrettable that households whose spending is dominated by food, transport, and energy, whilst inflation. However, easing remains painfully high relative to income, and this disconnect underscores a deeper flaw in economic communication and design, showing that headline indicators often mask structural weaknesses. GDP growth does not automatically reflect productivity expansion, employment quality, or resilience. Foreign reserves alone do not guarantee the affordability of necessities. When policy emphasis centres on aggregates rather than outcomes, reform risks losing social legitimacy.

When Stability Isn’t Enough

The inflation debate illustrates this dilemma clearly, and projections suggest moderation in 2026, yet prices of essential goods remain high. Low-income households, especially those outside formal wage employment, bear a disproportionate burden. For them, “disinflation” offers little relief when purchasing power has already been eroded. In like manner, exchange rate unification, though economically rational, imposed short-term shocks on import-dependent businesses and consumers. The fact remains that without a simultaneous and aggressive push to strengthen domestic production, the nation’s currency reforms risk transferring adjustment costs to households rather than building long-term competitiveness. These debates reveal two competing visions of economic management:

–       One that prioritises macroeconomic order and investor confidence

–       Another that insists stability must be matched by visible improvements in welfare, productivity, and opportunity.

The fact is that a holistic renewal agenda must reconcile both.

Macroeconomic Stability as Foundation, Not Destination

To be clear, stability matters, and it must be treated as a foundation, not the finish line. One will conclude that this is what it is meant to be because economic planning becomes impossible without disciplined fiscal management, credible monetary policy, and sustainable debt dynamics. Experts caution against celebrating stabilisation while growth remains modest.

The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s growth to slow toward three per cent, with further moderation in 2026 due largely to weaker global demand and declining oil prices. Crude oil’s fall below Nigeria’s budget benchmark reinforces the urgency of diversification. Moderate growth, without deep structural reform, cannot absorb Nigeria’s rapidly expanding labour force. This is because as a young, fast-growing population requires productivity-led growth, not cyclical rebounds tied to commodity prices.

Infrastructure as the Productivity Multiplier

Infrastructure remains one of Nigeria’s most binding constraints, commonly associated with the lingering erratic power supply, congested transport corridors, inefficient ports, and weak digital connectivity, which impose high costs on businesses and households alike.

Consistently, it is argued by experts that fragmented projects are insufficient by objectively looking at the trend of things; what is required is integrated infrastructure planning that links energy reform with transport logistics, industrial clusters, rural access roads, and digital platforms. Some of the key grey areas that the electricity reform must address are not just generation but transmission losses, distribution inefficiencies, and tariff credibility. Without much ado, transport investments should prioritise economic corridors and channels that connect farms to markets and factories to ports. Digital infrastructure, broadband access, data systems, and digital public services must be recognised as essential economic infrastructure, not optional upgrades.

Human Capital and the Missing Engine of Growth

No economy can sustainably outgrow the quality of its people. Yet education and healthcare often remain peripheral in reform discourse.

Today, we noticed that Nigeria’s education system struggles with skill mismatches, while healthcare costs push millions into poverty.

Economic growth, no matter how well-measured, will remain shallow, as experts have maintained in their arguments that this will remain a constant factor without human capital reform. In the same manner, education, which is a key instrument for building human capital, must be in alignment with labour-market needs, while reflecting technical skills, digital literacy, and adaptability, knowing quite well that vocational and technical are critical and should be elevated as engines of productivity, not treated as second-tier options. Human capital is not social expenditure; it is economic investment, so for this reason, healthcare investment, like others, must prioritise preventive care, insurance coverage, and workforce retention.

Private Sector and MSMEs, From Constraint to Catalyst

Small and medium-sized enterprises are already struggling to survive in Nigeria’s high-cost economy, despite being the nation’s largest employer of labour, as informed by high interest rates, limited credit access, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Access to affordable finance, regulatory simplicity, predictable tax policy, and contract enforcement are critical since experts repeatedly stress that reform must shift from controlling enterprise to enabling it.

Without deliberate support for small businesses, growth remains concentrated, informal employment persists, and inequality deepens. For these reasons, MSMEs require not just credit, but stable operating environments.

Industrialisation, Local Production, and Value Addition

One of the strongest expert warnings ahead of 2026 concerns Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports and raw commodity exports. This structure leaves the economy exposed to external shocks and foreign exchange volatility. For this reason, we have continued to witness economists and industry leaders advocating aggressive support for local production, agro-processing, and manufacturing value chains. Strengthening domestic capacity reduces import dependence, stabilises foreign exchange demand, and creates jobs.

Industrial policy must practically focus on sectors where Nigeria has a comparative advantage, supported by infrastructure, skills, and finance. This is to say that import substitution without competitiveness risks inefficiency, and value addition with productivity creates resilience.

Fiscal Reform and Social Justice

Fiscal reform is very important, and experts have argued that to make sure that fiscal reform is done in a fair way, it must be equitable. The tax officials must ensure that extending the tax base, it does not translate into overburdening small businesses or low-income earners. Also, one would have noticed that the removal of fuel subsidies freed fiscal space, but without strong social safety nets, it also made life very tough for a lot of people because they did not have any help when they needed it. Critics argue that reform savings must be visibly social investments like education, healthcare, transport, and targeted welfare. Social protection is not charity; it is economic stabilisation, preventing reform shocks from eroding social cohesion.

Governance, Institutions, and Policy Credibility

Unique to the Nigerian system, we have witnessed economic reforms fail where institutions are weak. This is because trust and investment have been undermined due to Policy reversals, regulatory inconsistency, and the lack of transparent decision-making.

Beyond rhetoric to enforcement, experts emphasise the need for policy coherence, institutional professionalism, and transparent communication. Anti-corruption efforts must extend. Prolonged Judicial judgement, particularly in commercial dispute resolution, has adversely impeded the smooth running of society as it questions the credibility of the system. Good governance is not abstract morality, rather it is a growth multiplier.

Agriculture, Food Security, and Rural Stability

Food inflation remains a major driver of hardship and has been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn. Though trade liberalisation has occasionally eased prices, experts argue that without boosting domestic agricultural productivity, food security will remain fragile.

Mechanisation, storage infrastructure, rural roads, insurance, and access to finance are essential. Equally critical is addressing rural insecurity, which disrupts production and inflates food prices.

Agriculture links economic growth directly to poverty reduction and social stability.

Digital Economy and Innovation

Technology is no longer a sector; it is a layer across all sectors. One can argue that Nigeria’s fintech success demonstrates what is possible, but looking at it intently, a broader digital transformation requires investment in connectivity, data protection, and cybersecurity. Regulation must be enabling, must be able to change when necessary, and forward-looking to achieve a thriving digital economy that can generate jobs, improve service delivery, and connect local firms to global markets.

The Productivity Challenge in Decline

Across expert critiques, one theme recurs: stability without productivity is stagnation.

An economy can be stable yet unproductive, grow slowly, create little or no jobs, and remain vulnerable to shocks. Productivity growth transforms stability into prosperity. It requires investment in people, infrastructure, innovation, and institutions.

Without productivity, growth becomes cyclical, driven by oil prices, not by domestic capacity.

From Rhetoric to Resonance: Closing the Credibility Gap

As Nigeria enters 2026, it has to choose to either settle for modest stability and make progress or pursue bold, people-centred strategies that generate shared prosperity.

The signs of stabilisation are real. But so is the urgency for deeper reforms that trickles down to the daily lives of those at the lower rung. Growth must be measured not only in GDP figures, inflation rates, or reserves, but in the number of jobs that are being created, the people who are earning money, and the businesses that are still running, with hope restored. It is expected that a true economic renewal in 2026 will not be announced; it will be felt.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com

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When Leaders THRIVE: Yetunde B. Oni’s Candid Counsel to Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy

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When Leaders THRIVE Yetunde B. Oni

Union Bank’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer sat with 30 of Nigeria’s most promising young leaders for a frank conversation on character, relationships and the discipline of growth.

Out of 25,000 applicants, only 30 earned a place. That single figure tells you how rare the room was when Yetunde B. Oni, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Union Bank of Nigeria, recently sat down with a cohort of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy.

The Academy, a Lagos State Government initiative established in honour of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande, the state’s first civilian governor, exists to raise a generation of ethical and capable young leaders. Its fellows are drawn from across professions, sectors and ethnicities, and shaped through a fellowship facilitated by the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa (ALI WA), whose work on values and principled leadership has become a quiet engine behind some of the country’s most thoughtful emerging talent.

It was into this gathering that Mrs Oni brought not a corporate address, but a conversation. Honest, personal and at times disarming, she spoke about the philosophies that have carried her through a career spanning more than three decades, the setbacks she has had to surmount, and the values that opened doors she never expected to walk through.

She gave them a framework to hold on to. She called it THRIVE.

The six principles

T — Take ownership of your relationships. Leadership, she argued, begins with the deliberate stewardship of the people around you. Relationships are not incidental to a career. They are infrastructure.

H — Honour God. She spoke openly about faith as a steadying force, an anchor that keeps ambition tethered to something larger than the self.

R — Recharge and refresh. Mental and physical health, she insisted, are not luxuries to be deferred until the work is done. Leaders who neglect their well-being eventually have less to give.

I — Invest in your growth. Continuous and heavy investment in personal development is, in her telling, the price of staying relevant. The learning never ends.

V — Value your work. She pressed the fellows on identity and brand. What do you stand for? Do you create value? Who, in truth, are you? The questions were not rhetorical.

E — Embrace setbacks. Failure, she said, is not the opposite of progress but a part of it. The leaders who endure are the ones who learn to metabolise disappointment rather than be defeated by it.

The people behind the leader

If one theme threaded the entire conversation, it was relationships. Mrs Oni was candid that she did not arrive at the top of Nigerian banking alone. She credited the steady support of family, her parents and her husband, alongside the mentors, friends, coaches and sponsors who shaped her at different stages.

She drew a sharp and useful distinction between a mentor and a coach, two roles often conflated and rarely understood, and she traced much of her progress back to a foundation of Nigerian cultural values: hard work, honesty and integrity, courtesy and respect. These, she told the fellows, are not relics. They are the very qualities that have earned her trust and opened doors throughout her journey.

“You need people,” was the message, delivered without sentiment. Relationships, she explained, must be managed and nurtured with the same seriousness one brings to any other discipline. Time must be managed with equal care.

On believing, and risking

Perhaps the most resonant moment came when Mrs Oni spoke about self-belief. She admitted that becoming the MD/CEO of Standard Chartered Bank, Sierra Leone, did not cross her mind – not because she was unqualified, but because she didn’t think she would get it. Encouraged by her husband, she applied anyway, and she got it!

That appointment would later see her make history as the first woman to lead a Standard Chartered Bank operation in her market.

The Union Bank of Nigeria appointment told a similar story. She had not even known the position existed after the CBN’s intervention. It came to her through relationships; through the quiet networks of people who knew her work and recommended her name while she was unaware in faraway Sierra Leone.

The lesson she left with the fellows was unambiguous. Believe in yourself. Take the risk. Put in for the thing you are not yet certain you deserve, because the opportunity you are waiting for may be one you cannot see, reaching you through someone you have not yet met.

Why this matters

Engagements of this kind are easy to underestimate. They produce no headlines about balance sheets and no immediate line on a financial statement. Yet they speak to something Union Bank has long understood: that institutions endure when they invest in people, and that leadership is built one honest conversation at a time.

Credit is due to the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa, whose facilitation of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy continues to shape young Nigerians of real promise, and to the Academy itself for the rigour of a process that turned 25,000 hopefuls into 30 fellows ready to lead.

For Yetunde B. Oni, the afternoon was less about what she had achieved than about what she was willing to give: her time, her story and her counsel, offered freely to those coming after her. It is, in the end, what the best leaders do. They light the path for the next generation, and they THRIVE.

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Destination Ekiti: Two Elections, One Lesson in Vision

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welcome to Ekiti

By Oludayo Oludee Olorunfemi

A couple of months ago, my principal, Mrs Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya (SAN), was scheduled to travel from Lagos to Akure for an interactive meeting as part of her consultation process before contesting for the office of President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). Today, she stands cleared to contest the election; the ban on campaigning has been lifted, with elections scheduled for 20 July 2026. However, this is not the central story. What stays with me from that trip is an unexpected lesson in leadership, vision, and the power of deliberate planning. It is a lesson that has become even more relevant as Ekiti State prepares for its governorship election on 20 June 2026, exactly one month before the NBA election. Two elections. Two different constituencies. Two different ballots. Yet remarkably similar questions before the voters.

Who has the vision? Who has done the work? Who has demonstrated the capacity to build for the future rather than merely campaign for the present? The journey began with a logistical challenge. The available flight from Lagos to Akure was scheduled for later in the day and would not get the team to Ondo State in time for a series of engagements planned across Akure, Owo, and Ondo Town.

During discussions on the best alternative, I suggested that we fly into Ekiti through the newly commissioned Ekiti Agro-Allied International Airport. The plan was simple: arrive early in Ado-Ekiti, make strategic visits to leaders of the Bar within the State, and then proceed by road to Akure for the scheduled meetings. What none of us anticipated was that Ekiti itself would become the story. Our first stop was a courtesy visit to Aare Afe Babalola, SAN, founder of Afe Babalola University, Ado-Ekiti. The purpose was straightforward: seek Baba’s blessings for the journey ahead. As always, a visit to Aare Afe Babalola became a masterclass. Drawing from over ninety years of experience, he spoke about governance, leadership, the legal profession, and nation-building. Listening to him, one could not help but reflect on the legacy. Across the South-West, the Aare Afe Babalola Bar Centres stand as visible reminders that impactful leadership is measured not by promises made but by institutions built.

As we continued our visits across Ekiti, someone suggested we stop by the Ekiti State Bureau of Tourism, headed by the energetic lawyer and tourism advocate, Mr Wale Ojo-Lanre. That unplanned detour became the highlight of the trip. The welcome was unmistakably Ekiti, warm, thoughtful, and rich in culture. Before we entered, we observed the symbolic knocking on the traditional drum suspended at the entrance. Then came the recitation of Mrs Badejo-Okusanya’s oriki as an Egba woman, evidence that our hosts had taken time to learn about their distinguished guest before our arrival. It was a small gesture, but one that reflected a larger truth about Ekiti, a people deeply connected to their culture, history, and identity. What followed was even more enlightening.

Officials of the Bureau took us through the various tourism assets of the state and presented the Ekiti State Tourism Development Master Plan (2025–2035). As a proud daughter of Ekiti, I listened with a sense of pride and optimism. The vision was clear. Tourism was no longer being treated as an afterthought but as a strategic economic pillar. Through public-private partnerships, destination governance, infrastructure development, cultural and eco-tourism innovation, enhanced security, asset development, and community empowerment, the state is seeking to position itself as a destination of choice. What impressed me most was the coherence of the plan. Too often, governments commission projects without building ecosystems. What we saw in Ekiti was different. It was a deliberate attempt to connect infrastructure, policy, investment, culture, and people into a sustainable tourism economy. It was the kind of long-term thinking that separates administration from leadership.

The next day, after completing our engagements in Ondo State, on our way back to catch our return flight, we stopped at Ikogosi Warm Springs Resort. Some places are beautiful. Others are transformative. Ikogosi belongs firmly in the second category. Listening to Madam Ruth, our tour guide, narrate the history of the springs, watching warm and cold waters continuously flow side by side, placing one foot in each stream, and observing the famous intertwined trees thriving together despite their differences, one could not help but marvel at nature’s wisdom. Different streams. One destination. Different identities. Shared purpose. The carefully curated pathways, the serenity of the environment, the chorus of birdsong, and the pristine landscape created a profound sense of peace. By the time we left, the verdict from everyone on the team was unanimous: we will be back. GO SEE IKOGOSI.

Ekiti is sitting on immense tourism potential. Not potential that exists only in policy documents or political speeches, but real, tangible, marketable potential. From Ikogosi to Arinta Waterfalls, to Mount of Clouds, to Olosunta Hills; from cultural festivals to ecotourism sites, from its rich history to its emerging infrastructure, Ekiti possesses many of the ingredients required to become one of Nigeria’s premier tourism destinations. What remains essential is sustained leadership and the courage to pursue a vision beyond electoral cycles. Perhaps that is why the coincidence of the election dates feels significant. On 20 June, the people of Ekiti will evaluate the leadership before them and determine the future direction of their state. One month later, on 20 July, lawyers across Nigeria will make a similar decision about the future of their association. The parallels are difficult to ignore.

In Ekiti, Governor Biodun Oyebanji has built a reputation for quiet but purposeful governance. Rather than chasing headlines, his administration appears focused on laying foundations in infrastructure, agriculture, education, and tourism that will yield benefits long after the politics of the moment have passed. In the NBA, Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya (SAN) presents a similar proposition. Her aspiration has been defined by consultation, engagement, bridge-building, and a vision of a bar that is inclusive, progressive, and institution-focused. Both represent a leadership philosophy that values preparation over performance. Both understand that sustainable progress requires patience. Both appear committed to building structures and a legacy of service that will outlive them.

As we departed Ekiti that evening, we left with more than memories of a successful consultation trip. We left with a renewed appreciation for what thoughtful leadership can accomplish. We left with fresh ideas. We left inspired by the possibilities that exist when vision is matched with execution. Most importantly, we left convinced that Ekiti’s tourism story is only beginning to be told. Destination Ekiti is more than a slogan. In the month that separates 20 June from 20 July, voters in Ekiti and lawyers across Nigeria will be asked essentially the same question: Do we reward those who merely speak about the future, or those who are deliberately building it? For Ekiti, for the NBA, and for all who believe in the power of institutions, the answer should be a BOLD Yes!

Oludayo Oludee Olorunfemi, a lawyer, writes from Ward 10, Idemo Quarters of Oke Aiyedun Ekiti, Ajoni LCDA.

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Why Most Nigerians Are Losing Money by “Saving” It

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Saving Your Money

By Izekeo Adegoke

Somewhere in Nigeria right now, a diligent, financially responsible person is watching their savings grow, and losing money at the same time. They do not know it. Their bank balance is rising. Their statement looks healthy. But in real terms, their wealth is quietly and consistently shrinking.

This is not a fringe scenario. It describes the financial situation of millions of Nigerians who are doing everything they were taught.

The gap nobody talks about

Here is the arithmetic that changes the conversation.

The average Nigerian savings account yields between 2% and 4% per annum. Nigeria’s inflation rate, as of recent Central Bank data, sits at approximately 15.69%. That means if you have ₦1 million in a savings account today, it will nominally become ₦1,030,000 in a year, but the real purchasing power of that money will have fallen to the equivalent of roughly ₦790,000 in today’s terms. You saved diligently. You lost ₦210,000 in purchasing power.

This is what economists call negative real returns, and it is the financial reality for the majority of Nigerian savers right now. The distinction between keeping money safe and making money grow has never mattered more than it does in this macroeconomic environment.

Why the savings instinct made sense and no longer does

The preference for savings accounts is not irrational. It is inherited. A generation of Nigerians was raised during periods of significant economic volatility, bank failures, currency devaluations, and frozen accounts. Saving in a regulated institution felt like the responsible, conservative choice. The alternative, markets, stocks, and funds, felt speculative and risky.

That instinct made sense in its context. But the financial landscape has changed materially, and the definition of “safe” needs to catch up.

A savings account today is not a low-risk option. It is a guaranteed negative return dressed in conservative language. The risk is not that you will lose your capital in nominal terms. The risk is that your capital will progressively lose its ability to buy things, fund a retirement, educate children, or build the future you are working toward. That is a real loss, even if your statement does not show it.

The behaviour-change that changes everything

The shift from saving to investing is not about abandoning caution. It is about directing caution more effectively. A diversified investment portfolio spread across fixed income instruments, equities, dollar-denominated assets, and alternative holdings does not eliminate risk. It manages it intelligently, and in doing so, gives your money a fighting chance against inflation.

Consider a ₦1 million portfolio invested across a balanced mix of Nigerian equities and fixed income instruments targeting a 15–18% annual return. Over three years, compounding and market participation could bring that to approximately ₦1.5–1.6 million in nominal terms and, depending on portfolio construction, meaningfully above the inflation rate in real terms. The savings account brings you to ₦1.09 million, having lost ground every single year.

The numbers are not subtle. They are decisive.

Coronation Wealth’s answer to the problem

This is precisely the problem Coronation Wealth was built to solve. Our platforms give individuals access to professionally managed, diversified portfolios across multiple asset classes, including dollar-denominated instruments that provide a structural hedge against naira depreciation. These are not products previously available only to institutional clients or high-net-worth individuals. They are accessible, clearly structured, and designed for people who want their money working as hard as they do. Wealth creation, as we understand it, is not about spectacular bets. It is about making consistent, informed decisions over time with the right tools, the right structure, and a partner who understands the environment in which you operate.

The reframe you need

Safety is not a function of where your money sits. It is a function of what your money does.

A savings account feels safe because the number never goes down. But if that number cannot keep pace with the cost of living, the cost of education, the cost of the future, it is not protecting you. It gives you the illusion of security while inflation quietly does its work.

The most dangerous financial decision most Nigerians are making right now is not taking too much risk. It is the decision to play it safe, and that is precisely why it needs to change.

Izekeo Adegoke is the Chief Digital Officer at Coronation Wealth, the digital investment and wealth management subsidiary of the Coronation Group in Nigeria. 

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