Economy
IMF Forecasts Nigeria’s Inflation Cooling to 25% in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Nigeria’s inflation to steady at 25 per cent in 2025 and moderate to 14 per cent by 2029.
Inflation in Nigeria slightly moved up to 32.70 per cent in September 2024, far beyond the 21.4 per cent target pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s inflation hit a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 but cooled to 33.40 per cent in July and extended this slowing to 32.15 per cent in July before rising to the current 32.70 per cent last month.
In its recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency.
“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98 per cent and 3.19 per cent, respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.
“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate.
“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.
“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.
Business Post had reported that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth prospects for 2024 was put at 2.9 per cent from 3.3 per cent for 2024 and 2025 respectively.
The IMF blamed the downgrade, particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.
Speaking on the downgrade from a year ago, the spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.
“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.
“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The chief executive of Ellah Lakes Plc, Mr Chuka Mordi, has described the N235 billion equity offer as a pivotal step in the company’s evolution.
“This offer for subscription is about unlocking the next chapter of Ellah Lakes’ growth story.
“At an offer price of N12.50 per share, this raise reflects the intrinsic value of our scaled, integrated platform.
“We are inviting investors to participate in a clear growth trajectory built on over 30,000 hectares of resilient, diversified assets and strong processing capacity.
“The N235 billion equity expansion marks our transition from foundation building to full-scale market expansion, driving sustainable profitability and advancing Nigeria’s food security agenda,” he stated.
Also, the deputy chief executive of the firm, Mr Paul Farrer, said, “Every Naira from this raise has a clear strategic purpose.
“The proceeds will accelerate integration of the newly acquired Agro-Allied Resources and Processing Nigeria Limited (ARPN) assets and upgrade our crude palm oil and cassava processing facilities.
“Our goal is to deliver a step-change in operational efficiency and scale, maximising value for shareholders and contributing to the broader agro-industrial ecosystem.”
Business Post reports that the offer was launched during a Facts Behind the Offer presentation at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said, “The launch of this N235 billion equity raise underscores the depth and resilience of Nigeria’s capital market as a strategic enabler of corporate growth.
“At NGX, we are particularly pleased to see a leading indigenous agribusiness like Ellah Lakes harness the market to scale its operations and deepen value creation across the agricultural value chain.
“This offer represents not only an opportunity for investors to participate in the country’s agro-industrial expansion but also a strong signal of renewed confidence in the exchange as a gateway for transformative capital formation.”
Ellah Lakes is a pioneering integrated agro-industrial enterprise in Nigeria raising N235 billion through the issuance of 18.8 billion ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N12.50 per share.
The exercise is led by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) as the lead issuing house. It commenced on Monday, November 10, 2025, and will close on Friday, December 5, 2025.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three stocks weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.73 per cent on Monday, November 10, with 11 Plc dropping N35.30 to close at N360.00 per share compared with the preceding session’s N395.50 per share.
Further, Nipco Plc went down by 90 Kobo to end at N239.10 per unit compared with last Friday’s closing price of N240.00 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc weakened by 75 Kobo to N39.25 per share from N40.00 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation lost N16.10 billion in value to close at N2.174 trillion compared with the preceding trading day’s N2.190 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased by 26.91 points to 3,634.16 points from 3,661.07 points.
Business Post reports that the price of Afriland Properties Plc went up during the session by 40 Kobo to end at N21.13 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N20.73 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded rose by 639.6 per cent to 1.5 million units from the 197,833 units achieved in the past trading session, the value of transactions surged by 591.4 per cent to N27.9 million from N4.0 million, and the number of deals increased by 45.8 per cent to 35 deals from 24 deals.
At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.3 million units transacted for N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.4 million units worth N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units traded for N419.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc exchanged 536.9 million units for N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira depreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, November 10, as FX liquidity pressure plummeted the value of the local currency by 71 Kobo or 0.05 per cent to N1,437.39/$1 from the N1,436.58/$1 it traded in the previous session.
Equally, the Naira lost N12 against the Pound Sterling in the spot market to settle at N1,894.78/£1, in contrast to the preceding trading session’s N1,882.35/£1 and declined against the Euro by N5.72 to quote at N1,663.24/€1 versus last Friday’s value of N1,657.52/€1.
However, the domestic currency gained N4 against the greenback at GTBank to close at N1,442/$1 versus N1,446/$1 and depreciated against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,455/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,450/$1.
The decline recorded by the Nigerian currency was largely driven by insufficient supply from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and local participants to cover for the demand, according to investment firm AIICO Capital Limited.
Naira came under pressures due to weak US dollar liquidity in the official currency market. The slowdown in FX flows forced the CBN into action with $50 million sold to boost liquidity last week.
FX inflows fell last week by about 14 per cent to $899 million, according to Coronation Merchant Bank research subsidiary, from $1.04 billion the previous week.
The market anticipates that the Naira will trade stable as the CBN maintains stance to support the local currency, a move strengthened by growing external reserves.
As for the cryptocurrency market, investors didn’t seem fazed by progress toward ending the US shutdown boosted sentiment, even as traders eyed a short-term liquidity boost from drawing down the Treasury General Account.
Market analysts noted that the shutdown has created a mixed backdrop for crypto.
On the positive side, the end of the shutdown could release $150–200 billion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) into bank reserves, a liquidity jolt that has historically benefited risk assets, including crypto.
Litecoin (LTC) lost 4.4 per cent to sell at $103.69, Binance Coin (BNB) dropped 2.2 per cent to close at $983.19, Ethereum (ETH) slumped by 1.5 per cent to $3,550.15, Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 1.2 per cent to $0.1785, Solana (SOL) fell by 1.0 per cent to $165.56, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.8 per cent to $105,351.58, and Cardano (ADA) slumped by 0.5 per cent to $0.5845.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) gained 1.5 per cent to finish at $2.48, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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