Economy
IMF: Nigeria’s Economy Still Vulnerable, Predicts 2.1% Growth in 2018
By Dipo Olowookere
Despite getting out of recession in the second quarter of this year, the Nigerian economy still remains vulnerable, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed.
From December 6 to 20, 2017, an IMF staff team led by Mr Amine Mati, Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, visited the country to conduct the 2018 Article IV consultation.
During the visit, the team held discussions with senior government and central bank officials. It also met with members of parliament, representatives of the banking system, private sector, civil society, and international development partners.
After the visit, Mr Mati observed that, “Overall growth is slowly picking up but recovery remains challenging. Economic activity expanded by 1.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017—the second consecutive quarter of positive growth after five quarters of recession—driven by recovering oil production and agriculture.
“However, growth in the non-oil-non-agricultural sector (representing about 65 percent of the economy), contracted in the first three quarters of 2017 relative to the same period last year.”
According to Mr Mati, “Difficulties in accessing financing and high inflation continued to weigh on companies’ performance and consumer demand.
“Headline inflation declined to 15.9 percent by end-November, from 18½ percent at end-2016, but remains sticky despite tight liquidity conditions.
“High fiscal deficits—driven by weak revenue mobilization—generated large financing needs, which, when combined with tight monetary policy necessary to reduce inflationary pressures, increased pressure on bond yields and crowded out private sector credit. These factors contributed to raising the ratio of interest payments to federal government revenue to unsustainable levels.
“Reflecting the low growth environment and exposure to the oil and gas sector, the banking industry’s solvency ratios have declined from almost 15 to 10.5 percent between December 2016 and October 2017, and non-performing loans have increased from 5 percent in June 2015 to 15 percent as of October 2017, although with provisioning coverage of about 82 percent.
“The authorities have begun addressing macroeconomic imbalances and structural impediments through the implementation of policies underpinning the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
“Supported by recovering oil prices, the new Investor and Exporter foreign exchange window has increased investor confidence and provided impetus to portfolio inflows, which have helped to increase external buffers to a four-year high, and contributed to reducing the parallel market premium.
“Important actions under the Power Sector Recovery Program increased power supply generation and ensured government agencies pay their electricity bills. Welcome steps were also taken to improve the business environment and to address longstanding corruption issues, including through the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy in August 2017.
“However, in the absence of new policies, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Growth is expected to continue to pick up in 2018 to 2.1 percent, helped by the full year impact of greater availability of foreign exchange and higher oil production, but to stay relatively flat in the medium term. Risks to the outlook include lower oil prices, tighter external market conditions, heightened security issues, and delayed policy responses.
“Containing vulnerabilities and achieving growth rates that can make a significant dent in reducing poverty and unemployment requires a comprehensive set of policy measures.”
“On the fiscal front, the mission welcomes the recent tax reforms aimed at improving tax administration, planned increases in excises, and latest steps taken to lower debt servicing costs and lengthen maturities.
“However, with oil prices expected to remain lower than in the past, upfront actions to mobilize non-oil revenues, including through reforming the VAT and removing exemptions, are needed while safeguarding priority expenditures, including scaling up social safety nets and infrastructure investment.”
“Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a monetary policy stance that remains tight to further reduce inflation and anchor inflation expectations. Moving toward a unified and market-based exchange rate as soon as possible while continuing to strengthen external buffers would be necessary to increase confidence and reduce potential risks from capital flow reversals.”
“Such a policy package—along with structural reform implementation, including by building on recent successes to improve the business environment, closing infrastructure gaps, and implementing the power sector reform plan——would lay the foundation for a diversified private-sector led economy. Strengthening governance and transparency initiatives, and lowering gender inequality and fostering financial inclusion would also be important.”
Economy
NAICOM Mandates 0.25% Premium Levy for New Protection Fund
By Adedapo Adesanya
All insurance and reinsurance companies operating in Nigeria are required to remit 0.25 per cent of their annual net premium income to a new fund, according to new guidelines by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).
The insurance regulator has issued binding guidelines for a new industry-wide protection fund that will compel every licensed insurer and reinsurer in the country to make annual cash contributions, or risk losing their operating licence.
NAICOM published the framework for the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund (IPPF) under the authority of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, which was signed into law last August.
The guidelines, which take effect immediately, did not disclose an initial capitalisation target for the fund or a timeline for when it would be considered adequately funded for resolution purposes.
The IPPF is designed to function as a resolution backstop as a capital pool available to settle outstanding policyholder claims when a licensed insurer or reinsurer becomes insolvent or enters regulatory distress.
The mechanism addresses a longstanding vulnerability in the Nigerian market, where policyholders holding valid claims against failed insurers have historically had no guaranteed recourse.
The 0.25 per cent payments are due into designated deposit money bank accounts no later than June 30 each year.
NAICOM said it will supplement industry contributions by injecting 0.25 per cent of the balance held in the existing Security and Insurance Development Fund (SIDF) into the IPPF annually, creating a dual-stream capitalisation model.
The guidelines state explicitly that failure to remit the full assessed contribution within the stipulated timeframe shall constitute grounds for suspension or cancellation of an operator’s licence. The same penalty framework applies to defaults on any loans extended from the fund.
Day-to-day management of the IPPF will be delegated to an independent professional Fund Manager, subject to a minimum paid-up capital threshold of N5 billion.
Investment activity is restricted to low-risk, government-backed instruments. This is a deliberate constraint intended to preserve liquidity and protect the fund from market volatility.
Members are bound by a Code of Conduct that bars them from using their positions for personal advantage or to direct decisions in favour of any insurer, reinsurer, or connected party.
The guidelines introduce a mandatory early-warning mechanism: insurance operators who become aware of imprudent practices within their organisations or elsewhere in the industry are required to report such conduct to NAICOM within five working days.
The commission has provided explicit anti-retaliation protections, stating that no whistleblower shall be subjected to retaliation, intimidation, or any form of adverse action for making a disclosure.
Economy
Organised Private Sector Seeks Tinubu’s Help to Halt CETA Bill Passage
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
President Bola Tinubu has been called on to use his influence to halt the passage of the proposed Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill.
The proposed piece of legislation is currently before the National Assembly, and it seeks to introduce a percentage levy per litre of the retail price on non-alcoholic beverages.
In an outlined advertorial published in key newspapers, the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria urged the federal government to engage with the leadership of the parliament to stop the ongoing legislative process with a view to stepping down the CETA Bill, thus allowing the executive-led fiscal reforms to be fully integrated and aligned.
The OPS comprises the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists (NASSI), and the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME).
In the advertorial signed by the presidents of all members of the group, it was submitted that allowing for more talks would strengthen policy coherence, enhance predictability, and improve the effectiveness of the nation’s excise framework.
It was stressed that halting the bill would also encourage structured, evidence-based engagement with industry stakeholders, thereby ensuring that any future measures will effectively balance revenue generation, public health objectives, and economic sustainability.
“While we fully support well-designed fiscal reforms and evidence-based public health interventions, we are concerned that the Bill, in its current form, raises significant social, economic, administrative, and legal issues that could undermine Your Excellency’s broader fiscal reform objectives,” the body stated.
While calling on the government to restrain the Senate from proceeding with the process, the organisation noted that the proposed levy would therefore constitute a regressive measure, reducing consumer purchasing power without providing viable alternatives or meaningful public health support.
Commenting on the impact of such a levy on industry stability, investment, and employment, OPS stated that the sector was already under severe pressure from exchange rate adjustments, high energy costs, and rising prices of imported inputs, packaging materials, and machinery.
“An additional excise burden would further increase production costs, reduce capacity utilisation, delay or cancel planned investments, and threaten the livelihoods of thousands of small distributors, retailers, and informal traders who depend on high-volume, low-margin sales.
“These pressures would inevitably be passed on to consumers through higher prices, leading to reduced demand and potential further job losses across the value chain,” it stated.
While commending the president for the leadership and bold economic reforms undertaken since assuming office in 2023, it noted that the reforms have played an important role in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence within the business community.
Economy
CSCS, Afriland Properties, MRS Oil Weaken NASD Exchange by 1.12%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three stocks further weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.12 per cent on Wednesday, April 8, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 44.43 points to 3,930.91 points from the previous day’s 3,975.34 points, and the market capitalisation went down by N26.59 to N2.351 trillion from N2.378 trillion.
MRS Oil lost N11.00 during the session to close at N161.00 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N172.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc dipped by N3.74 to N67.95 per unit from N71.69 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc fell by N1.10 to sell at N15.95 per share versus N17.05 per share.
There were two gainers at the midweek trading session, led by IPWA Plc, which appreciated by 55 Kobo to N6.61 per unit from N6.06 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc improved its value by 4 Kobo to N2.32 per share from N2.28 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities rose by 620.4 per cent to 5.7 million units from 797,264 units, the value of securities increased by 25.1 per cent to N32.7 million from N26.1 million, and the number of deals climbed by 12.1 per cent to 37 deals from the preceding session’s 33 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by CSCS Plc with 57.2 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
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