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IMF: Nigeria’s Economy Still Vulnerable, Predicts 2.1% Growth in 2018

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By Dipo Olowookere

Despite getting out of recession in the second quarter of this year, the Nigerian economy still remains vulnerable, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed.

From December 6 to 20, 2017, an IMF staff team led by Mr Amine Mati, Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, visited the country to conduct the 2018 Article IV consultation.

During the visit, the team held discussions with senior government and central bank officials. It also met with members of parliament, representatives of the banking system, private sector, civil society, and international development partners.

After the visit, Mr Mati observed that, “Overall growth is slowly picking up but recovery remains challenging. Economic activity expanded by 1.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017—the second consecutive quarter of positive growth after five quarters of recession—driven by recovering oil production and agriculture.

“However, growth in the non-oil-non-agricultural sector (representing about 65 percent of the economy), contracted in the first three quarters of 2017 relative to the same period last year.”

According to Mr Mati, “Difficulties in accessing financing and high inflation continued to weigh on companies’ performance and consumer demand.

“Headline inflation declined to 15.9 percent by end-November, from 18½ percent at end-2016, but remains sticky despite tight liquidity conditions.

“High fiscal deficits—driven by weak revenue mobilization—generated large financing needs, which, when combined with tight monetary policy necessary to reduce inflationary pressures, increased pressure on bond yields and crowded out private sector credit. These factors contributed to raising the ratio of interest payments to federal government revenue to unsustainable levels.

“Reflecting the low growth environment and exposure to the oil and gas sector, the banking industry’s solvency ratios have declined from almost 15 to 10.5 percent between December 2016 and October 2017, and non-performing loans have increased from 5 percent in June 2015 to 15 percent as of October 2017, although with provisioning coverage of about 82 percent.

“The authorities have begun addressing macroeconomic imbalances and structural impediments through the implementation of policies underpinning the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).

“Supported by recovering oil prices, the new Investor and Exporter foreign exchange window has increased investor confidence and provided impetus to portfolio inflows, which have helped to increase external buffers to a four-year high, and contributed to reducing the parallel market premium.

“Important actions under the Power Sector Recovery Program increased power supply generation and ensured government agencies pay their electricity bills. Welcome steps were also taken to improve the business environment and to address longstanding corruption issues, including through the adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy in August 2017.

“However, in the absence of new policies, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Growth is expected to continue to pick up in 2018 to 2.1 percent, helped by the full year impact of greater availability of foreign exchange and higher oil production, but to stay relatively flat in the medium term. Risks to the outlook include lower oil prices, tighter external market conditions, heightened security issues, and delayed policy responses.

“Containing vulnerabilities and achieving growth rates that can make a significant dent in reducing poverty and unemployment requires a comprehensive set of policy measures.”

“On the fiscal front, the mission welcomes the recent tax reforms aimed at improving tax administration, planned increases in excises, and latest steps taken to lower debt servicing costs and lengthen maturities.

“However, with oil prices expected to remain lower than in the past, upfront actions to mobilize non-oil revenues, including through reforming the VAT and removing exemptions, are needed while safeguarding priority expenditures, including scaling up social safety nets and infrastructure investment.”

“Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a monetary policy stance that remains tight to further reduce inflation and anchor inflation expectations. Moving toward a unified and market-based exchange rate as soon as possible while continuing to strengthen external buffers would be necessary to increase confidence and reduce potential risks from capital flow reversals.”

“Such a policy package—along with structural reform implementation, including by building on recent successes to improve the business environment, closing infrastructure gaps, and implementing the power sector reform plan——would lay the foundation for a diversified private-sector led economy. Strengthening governance and transparency initiatives, and lowering gender inequality and fostering financial inclusion would also be important.”

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Oil Market Dips Amid Uncertainty Over US Military Action

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market edged lower on Tuesday but remained well above $100 per barrel, as investors weighed mixed signals from President Donald Trump on the resumption of military strikes against Iran.

Brent crude futures lost 0.73 per cent to trade at $111.28 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.82 per cent to sell for $107.77 per barrel.

President Trump told reporters Tuesday that the US. might have to give Iran “another big hit” after he had previously posted that his administration would ‘hold off’ on a planned military attack, renewing the threat after he said he called off the attack scheduled for Tuesday at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The American President also said that Iran has a “limited period of time” to agree to a deal, giving options “two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week.”

Iran’s latest peace proposal to ​the US involves ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran and reparations for destruction caused by the war.

Meanwhile, the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian foreign currency exchange house and what it said were front companies overseeing transactions on behalf of Iranian banks. It also blocked 19 vessels, which it said were involved in shipping Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals to foreign customers. It also seized an oil tanker linked to Iran in the Indian Ocean overnight.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a sanctions waiver by 30 ​days to allow “energy-vulnerable” countries ⁠to continue purchasing Russian seaborne oil.

Oil markets continue to price in persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East, with analysts noting that hopes that China would help broker progress during recent Trump-Xi talks failed to materialise.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that every month the Strait of Hormuz remains closed adds $10 to the price of oil at year’s end, while ING said some shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, including several crude tankers and a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi oil shipment, though flows remain well below normal levels and could deteriorate quickly.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ending May 15. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.188 million barrels. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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Economy

All Set for Champion Breweries’ 50th AGM on Thursday

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2025 Champion Breweries AGM

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Barring any last-minute changes, the 50th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Champion Breweries Plc will take place on Thursday, May 21, 2026, at the Oriental Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos, at 11:00 am.

At the yearly shareholders’ gathering, some of the key statutory and governance matters to be considered will include the Audited Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, alongside the Reports of the Directors, Auditors, and the Audit Committee.

Other agenda items are the declaration of dividends, election and re-election of Directors, authorisation for Directors to determine the remuneration of the Auditors, and election/re-election of shareholders’ representatives to the Audit Committee.

In line with its commitment to transparency, accountability, and shareholder engagement, the AGM will be held physically while also being accessible to stakeholders via the company’s official website: www.championbreweries.com.

This year’s AGM comes at a defining moment in the organisation’s corporate journey, following a transformative year marked by strategic expansion initiatives, including the acquisition of Bullet Energy Drink and its successful engagement with the capital market to raise growth capital.

These developments reinforce Champion Breweries Plc’s commitment to strengthening its competitive positioning, expanding its portfolio, and delivering long-term shareholder value.

The brewer has strengthened its transition into a group structure with the acquisition of an 80 per cent stake in enJOYbev B.V., a strategic move already delivering early earnings contribution and validating its international expansion drive.

The subsidiary’s results are now being consolidated into the Group accounts for the first time, with enJOYbev B.V. already contributing positively to earnings through operating profitability within the reporting period, an early validation of the group’s expansion strategy.

“This AGM reflects a defining chapter in our journey as a Company. The acquisition of Bullet, our successful capital market engagement, and the integration of enJOYbev B.V. into our group structure all signal a deliberate strategy for sustainable growth and diversification.

“These milestones position Champion Breweries Plc for stronger performance, broader market reach, and enhanced shareholder value. We remain committed to disciplined execution, operational excellence, and the highest standards of corporate governance,” the chairman of Champion Breweries, Mr Imo Abasi Jacob, said.

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Economy

NRS Launches Unified Tax ID System

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tax guidelines

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has unveiled a unified Taxpayer Identification (Tax ID) system for all taxable persons across the country as part of efforts to strengthen tax administration and improve transparency.

The agency announced the development in a public notice issued jointly with the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) on Monday.

According to the notice, the initiative is backed by Sections 6, 7, and 8 of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025, which mandate every taxable person in Nigeria to obtain a Tax ID, in a wider move to expand the country’s tax base.

The NRS said the new framework is designed to create a centralised and harmonised taxpayer database that would enhance interactions between taxpayers and revenue authorities at both federal and sub-national levels.

“The Tax ID will serve as a single, unified identity for all taxpayers, enabling seamless interaction with tax authorities at both federal and sub-national levels. It is designed to consolidate taxpayer records, eliminate duplication, and ensure more efficient management of tax-related information,” the agency stated.

The revenue agency explained that the new system would simplify tax compliance procedures, including taxpayer registration, filing of returns, and payment processes.

According to the NRS, the framework is also expected to improve accountability and reduce leakages in tax collection by creating better visibility and tracking of taxpayer information nationwide.

“The initiative will simplify tax compliance processes, including registration, tax filing, and payment procedures. The system will improve transparency by enabling better visibility and tracking of taxpayer records while reducing leakages and improving accountability in tax collection. The framework will also harmonise taxpayer information across all levels of government,” the notice added.

The agency further disclosed that the new Tax ID system would replace the existing Tax Identification Number (TIN) Validation API currently used by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), financial institutions, and other organisations for taxpayer verification.

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