IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth to 4.4% on Improved Macroeconomic Conditions

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.

This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.

In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.

However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”

The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.

It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.

The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.

It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.

As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.