Economy
IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth to 4.4% on Improved Macroeconomic Conditions
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.
This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.
However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”
The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.
It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.
The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.
It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange was plunged into the danger zone by 1.40 per cent on Thursday, July 23, by five securities on the platform.
Leading the pack was Okitipupa Plc, which crashed by N20.20 to trade at N248.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N268.20 per share. MRS Oil Plc tumbled by N15.00 to close at N135.00 per unit versus the preceding session’s N150.00 per unit, Nipco Plc weakened by N7.00 to N415.00 per share from N422.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N3.92 to settle at N143.63 per unit compared with midweek’s N147.55 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined by N3.05 to quote at N95.27 per share versus N98.32 per share.
These losses contracted the value of the unlisted securities exchange by N36.77 billion to N2.594 trillion from N2.631 trillion, and decreased the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 61.26 points to 4,322.22 points from 4,383.48 points.
Business Post reports that there were two price gainers yesterday at the market, but they could not salvage the situation. NASD Plc grew by N1.36 to N37.36 per unit from N36.00 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained N1.09 to end at N16.85 per share versus the previous session’s N15.76 per share.
As for the activity chart, the volume of trades crashed by 96.7 per cent to 377,635 units from 1.4 million units, the value of transactions slumped by 6.3 per cent to N40.4 million from N43.1 million, and the number of deals moderated by 20.4 per cent to 39 deals from 49 deals.
At the close of business, the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis remained Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 75.5 million units traded for N5.4 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated for the seventh straight session against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) by 0.14 per cent or N1.87 on Thursday, July 23, to trade at N1,367.76/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s N1,369.63/$1.
The Nigerian currency also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N8.67 to close at N1,824.45/£1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,833.12/£1, and against the Euro, it gained N6.25 to sell at N1,556.78/€1 compared with the midweek session’s N1,563.03/€1.
Similarly, the Naira gained N5 against the US Dollar in the parallel market yesterday to settle at N1,395/$1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,400/$1, and at the GTBank forex counter, it strengthened by N4 to quote at N1,379/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,383/$1.
The positive outcome for the Naira comes amid a decline in FX turnover at the Nigerian foreign exchange market by 24 per cent to $1.163 billion from the $1.532 billion recorded a day earlier.
Meanwhile, the number of deals cut across the window by a slew of financial institutions in the country acting as market makers surged to 417 from 313 reported the previous day.
However, traders project that the local currency may weaken soon, largely due to foreign-currency buying from fuel importers.
Dangote Refinery, which distributes the majority of the country’s petrol supply, resumed the sale of petrol in Naira after it announced last week that it would start selling petroleum products to marketers in Dollars.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was down, as $800 billion evaporated from the biggest US technology stocks, regarded as a rare stretch of independence for an asset that has tracked the AI trade all month.
Market analysts noted concerns that Big Tech is spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure faster than profits can justify, with Dogecoin (DOGE) down by 4.4 per cent to $0.0693.
Further, Cardano (ADA) also dropped 4.4 per cent to $0.1668, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 2.2 per cent to $1,883.48, Solana (SOL) dipped by 2.1 per cent to $75.85, Ripple (XRP) crashed by 2.0 per cent to $1.11, Bitcoin slipped by 0.4 per cent to $65,415.27, and Binance Coin (BNB) tumbled by 0.3 per cent to $568.41.
But TRON (TRX) gained 0.3 per cent to end at $0.3287, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
Lower trading activity could not tie down Nigerian stocks on Thursday, as they rebounded by 0.98 per cent after the previous day’s loss caused by profit-taking.
The growth recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited yesterday was driven by interest in Guinness Nigeria, First Holdco and others.
Guinness Nigeria and Zichis gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N365.20 and N26.95, respectively, Access Holdings appreciated by 9.98 per cent to N29.20, First Holdco jumped by 9.91 per cent to N120.90, and UPDC REIT soared by 9.38 per cent to N14.00.
Conversely, Mecure lost 9.96 per cent to trade at N62.40, FTN Cocoa depreciated by 9.16 per cent to N8.63, Omatek slumped by 7.89 per cent to N1.75, Africa Prudential crashed by 4.44 per cent to N12.90, and Cornerstone Insurance fell by 4.35 per cent to N5.50.
A total of 36 stocks appreciated during the session, while 28 stocks depreciated, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Customs Street experienced lower trading activity during the trading day, with market participants transacting 782.4 million equities for N56.3 billion in 46,273 deals, in contrast to the 1.3 billion equities worth N118.2 billion traded in 47,458 deals on Wednesday, representing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 39.82 per cent, 52.37 per cent, and 2.50 per cent, respectively.
Bargain-hunting was seen across the key segments of the bourse, with the banking index up by 3.92 per cent. The industrial goods space rose by 1.27 per cent, the insurance sector appreciated by 0.75 per cent, the consumer goods counter improved by 0.63 per cent, and the energy segment grew by 0.04 per cent.
When the closing gong was struck to announce the end of trading activities for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 2,413.03 points to 247,831.40 points from 245,418.37 points, and the market capitalisation added N1.575 trillion to close at N159.894 trillion compared with the previous day’s N158.319 trillion.
