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Economy

IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth to 4.4% on Improved Macroeconomic Conditions

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Tinubu IMF president Kristalina Georgieva

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.

This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.

In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.

However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”

The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.

It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.

The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.

It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.

As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.

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Economy

NNPC Sees Deep Offshore Incentive Order Accelerating Investment, Production Growth

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NNPC Crude Cargoes pricing

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, approved recently by President Bola Tinubu, has been described as a landmark reform that significantly enhances Nigeria’s competitiveness for deep offshore investment and strengthens the nation’s pathway towards achieving its 3 million barrels of oil per day (MMbopd) production ambition by 2030.

The chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, in a statement signed by the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC, Mr Andy Odeh, said the development is one of the most significant policy interventions for the upstream sector in recent years.

He thanked Mr Tinubu for his relentless leadership and unwavering commitment to creating an enabling environment for investment and sustainable growth in Nigeria’s energy sector through several Presidential Executive Orders which have strengthened the nation’s oil and gas sector.

“This is a transformative reform that sends a strong signal to global investors that Nigeria is committed to providing a stable, competitive and investment-friendly environment for deep offshore development. Fiscal certainty is a critical driver of investment decisions, and this framework provides the additional clarity the industry has long sought,” he said.

“For NNPC, the order aligns directly with our strategy of protecting our existing production base, accelerating near-term growth, and attracting new investment into high-value assets. It strengthens our confidence in achieving our strategic production ambition of 3 MMbopd while creating greater value for our shareholders and the Nigerian economy,” the NNPC chief added.

Mr Ojulari noted that recent reforms across the petroleum sector have already stimulated more than $34 billion in new investment commitments, stating that the Deep Offshore Incentives Order is expected to build on that momentum by enabling timely FIDs on strategic offshore developments.

The new order establishes a transparent, predictable and globally competitive fiscal framework for qualifying greenfield deep offshore developments. It provides the certainty required to unlock long-term capital, accelerate Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), and maximise value from Nigeria’s offshore resources.

The framework, which reinforces Nigeria’s position as one of the world’s attractive destinations for deep offshore oil and gas development, is expected to unlock over $50 billion in new investments, including major projects starting with Bonga South-West, which was approved in March 2026, and the Zabazaba and Owowo Deep Offshore projects. Bonga South West is expected to be the first FID on a Nigeria deepwater Production Sharing Contract asset since 2008.

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Economy

Geregu Acknowledges Concerns Over N40bn Bond Repayment Default

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Geregu Power

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The board of Geregu Power Plc has acknowledged the concerns raised by shareholders, stakeholders, as well as regulators over the inability of the company to pay bondholders for their investment in its N40 billion bond sale.

There were reports that the power-generating organisation defaulted in repaying investors who bought its debt instrument.

In 2022, the company issued a seven-year paper to investors at a coupon of 14.5 per cent to be paid semi-annually. The note is expected to mature in July 2029. But data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that there have been defaults in the 8th coupon payment and the 4th bullet principal repayment.

Reacting to the issue on Thursday, Geregu said it is actively having talks with advisers and others on ways to iron things out.

“Geregu remains actively engaged with relevant stakeholders and advisers regarding the resolution of the various challenges and is committed to achieving an orderly and mutually beneficial outcome.

“Discussions and engagements are ongoing, and the Company will continue to act in good faith in fulfilling its responsibilities,” part of the statement signed by its scribe, The Structure HQ, stated.

The firm explained that since assuming responsibility for its affairs, the current board and management have undertaken a comprehensive review and reconciliation of its transactions, liabilities, operational commitments, financing arrangements, financial obligations and related corporate documentation.

It stressed that this action was to ensure transparency, accuracy and prudent financial management, adding that it remains committed to transparency, responsible corporate governance and constructive engagement with all stakeholders.

The majority stake of Geregu Power was controlled by Mr Femi Otedola. He divested his stake in the energy firm in 2025, with the sale of 95 per cent of his shares in Amperion to MA”AM Energy.

Earlier in 2023, he sold N399 million shares of Geregu to another investor. Before then, he sold his stake in Forte Oil to invest in Geregu Power, which now has the former Governor of Zamfara State, Mr Abdulaziz Yari, as its chairman.

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Economy

Ex-NAICOM Boss Warns FG Against Post-Recapitalisation Intervention

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Nigeria's insurance sector

By Adedapo Adesanya

A former Commissioner for Insurance of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), Mr Mohamed Kari, has warned the federal government to reduce its intervention in the sector’s post-recapitalisation process.

He charged the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, to ignore calls for regulatory concessions in the just-concluded insurance industry recapitalisation exercise in the country.

The call, he said, was critical, especially when the companies clamouring for such concessions were chronic defaulters whose failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy.

Recall that NAICOM had requested insurance companies, as part of the recapitalisation process, to transfer their entire recapitalisation funds into an escrow account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). However, NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, in a recent petition, had petitioned NAICOM over what they described as unlawful fees and regulatory demands arising from the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.

Mr Kari, who was also a former chief executive of NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, said it was globally accepted that a government may occasionally intervene to rescue or support a consequential player in the financial sector, strictly where its distress poses a genuine ‘too big to fail’ systemic risk whose collapse would trigger a wider economic catastrophe.

“However, one must examine the reality of the two institutions in question today. These are no longer the market giants they once were decades ago,” he said.

He warned that having suffered years of steep decline, loss of market share, and severe operational shrinkage, their current market footprint is virtually insignificant.

“Their failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy. Why then should government intervene to shield operators whose distress carries no systemic consequence whatsoever?

“Rescuing or granting regulatory concessions to insignificant, chronic defaulters cannot be justified under any sound macroeconomic policy,” he added.

“When political intervention steps in to shield such non-systemic entities from standard regulatory checks, the equilibrium of the market breaks down as it creates unfair advantage.

“Operators that meet compliance targets carry the full cost of regulatory fidelity, while non-compliant firms that secure political exemptions operate with an artificial cost advantage.

“It disincentivises real capacity building: When political lobbying becomes an alternative to recapitalisation, companies are discouraged from making the hard structural choices necessary to refine their balance sheets and operations.”

He noted that if such a concession is granted to both insurance industry players in the defunct, it “distorts investor confidence: Both domestic and international investors look for predictable, transparent environments. A playing field where rules can be bent for select players frightens away patient capital. It weakens policyholder protection.”

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