Economy
Inflation to Drop to 15.04% in January on Slower Food Index Growth—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
One of the leading financial consulting firms in Nigeria, FSDH, has predicted a drop in the nation’s inflation rate for the month of January.
In its Inflation Watch report released on Thursday, February 1, 2018, the company said inflation will drop to 15.04 percent from 15.37 percent recorded in December 2017.
“FSDH Research expects the inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 15.04 percent in January 2018 from 15.37 percent recorded in the month of December 2017,” the report said.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to its calendar, will release the inflation rate for the month of January 2018 on February 14, 2018.
According to FSDH, the expected decline in the inflation rate is as a result of a slower growth in the year on year Food Index in January 2018 than what was recorded in December 2017.
It said the January 2018 monthly Food Price Index (FPI) from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that the Index averaged 169.5 points. The Index was largely unchanged from the December 2017 figure.
The FPI was down by 0.18 percent, from the revised December 2017 figure but almost 3 percent below the corresponding period last year.
The movement in the food prices were in varying directions in January 2018. The cereal and vegetable oil prices appreciated while sugar and dairy prices depreciated.
The FAO Dairy Price Index depreciated by 2.44 percent in January. The prices of dairy products such as cheese and butter depreciated significantly during the period. The FAO Sugar Price Index dropped by 1.49 percent on the heels of favourable supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions in Brazil and increased exports availabilities.
The FAO Meat Index was marginally down by 0.60 percent on the backdrop of weak global import demand for poultry and pig meat.
On the flip side, the FAO Cereal Price Index gained 2.31 percent from the previous month. Wheat, maize and rice prices firmed up and were primarily responsible for the uptick in the value of the Index.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was up marginally by 0.33 percent, driven by the rise in palm oil prices which outweighed weakening prices for other oils.
“Our analysis indicates that the value of the Naira appreciated in the inter-bank market while it depreciated in the parallel market. The Naira gained 30kobo to close at N305.70/ $ in the interbank market while it lost N1 to close at N364.50/ $ in the parallel market.
“FSDH Research expects the drop in the international prices of food to counter the effect of the depreciation in the Naira in the parallel market.
“Hence, there should be a moderation in the pass-through effect of imported goods on local prices. The prices of most of the food items we monitored in January 2018 moved in varying directions, leading to 0.79 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index. The Food and Non-Alcoholic Index increased by 18.78 percent from 220.41 points in January 2017.
“We also noticed increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between December 2017 and January 2018.
“We estimate that the increase in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) in January 2018 would produce an inflation rate of 15.04 percent lower than the 15.37 percent recorded in December 2017,” the report said.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited again failed to get out the danger zone on Friday after it further shed 0.33 per cent at the close of transactions.
The woes of the domestic stock exchange was compounded by the sustained weak investor sentiment after finishing with 19 price gainers and 40 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
Berger Paints lost 10.00 per cent to close at N35.10, C&I Leasing declined by 9.86 per cent to N5.03, MeCure Industries slipped by 9.77 per cent to N27.70, Champion Breweries depleted by 9.72 per cent to N13.00, and The Initiates crashed by 9.66 per cent to N10.75.
Conversely, NCR Nigeria gained 9.94 per cent to finish at N19.35, McNichols grew by 9.82 per cent to N3.02, Eunisell rose by 9.24 per cent to N70.90, Deap Capital jumped by 8.81 per cent to N1.73, and Ellah Lakes surged by 8.29 per cent to N11.75.
Data showed that Wema Bank was the most active stock yesterday, selling 90.9 million units worth N1.7 billion, Consolidated Hallmark traded 78.3 million units valued at N317.3 million, AXA Mansard exchanged 32.4 million units for N430.6 million, Access Holdings sold 23.4 million units worth N511.8 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 22.5 million units valued at N1.4 billion.
At the close of trades, investors bought and sold 527.2 million shares worth N15.4 billion in 24,637 deals compared with 619.6 million shares valued at N16.5 billion in 24,865 deals recorded a day earlier.
This indicated that the trading volume, value, and the number of deals contracted by 14.91 per cent, 6.67 per cent and 0.92 per cent, respectively.
Business Post reports that the insurance space slipped by 2.15 per cent, the banking counter shrank by 0.88 per cent, the consumer goods index fell by 0.47 per cent, the energy industry slumped by 0.25 per cent, and the industrial goods sector depleted by 0.11 per cent, while the commodity segment closed flat.
On the last trading day of the week, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 501.74 points to 149,524.81 points from 150,026.55 points and the market capitalisation contracted by N319 billion to N94.998 trillion from N95.317 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Air Liquide Plc extended the positive run of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a 0.07 per cent on Friday, November 7.
Afriland Properties Plc appreciated by N1.52 during the session to end at N20.73 per unit compared with the previous day’s N19.21 per unit, and Air Liquide Plc rose by 90 Kobo to close at N10.00 per share versus the preceding session’s N9.10 per share.
This raised the market capitalisation of the trading platform by N1.50 billion to N2.190 trillion from the N2.189 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 2.51 to 3,661.07 points from the 3,658.56 points it ended on Thursday.
The bourse recorded a price loser yesterday and it was Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which fell by 15 Kobo to close at N40.00 per unit, in contrast to the previous day’s N40.15 per unit.
During the trading session, the volume of securities traded by the market participants went down by 57.9 per cent to 197,833 units from the previous day’s 221,284 units, the value of securities decreased by 66.3 per cent to N4.0 million from N11.9 million, while the number of deals went up by 9.1 per cent to 24 deals from 22 deals.
When the market ended for the day, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.3 million units transacted for N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.4 million units traded for N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units sold for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units worth N419.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units transacted for N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, November 7, by 16 Kobo or 0.12 per cent to close at N1,436.58/$1, in contrast to the N1,436.74/$1 it ended a day earlier.
Equally, the Nigerian Naira gained against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by 21 Kobo to finish at N1,882.35/£1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,882.56/£1 and improved against the Euro by 19 Kobo to trade at N1,657.52/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,657.71/€1.
Once again, the domestic currency retained its previous day’s value of N1,446/$1 at GTBank forex counter, and at the parallel market, it closed flat at N1,450/$1 during the trading day.
The Naira stability is hinged on continued FX interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and overall investor sentiment which continues to get backing from strong external reserves and expectations of sustained high crude oil prices.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves increased to $43.324 billion as of November 6, up from $43.197 billion at the end of October.
This week, the country saw a 477 per cent oversubscribed Eurobond raise which provided additional support for the local currency outlook as it signifies good foreign investment sentiments on the Nigerian economy.
In the crypto market, there were some gains as investors clawed back after recent losses as economic data suggests a December Federal Reserve rate cut could be very much back on the table.
Amid the government shutdown and lack of official statistics, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey released on Friday showed that suggest the central bank might have to re-consider plans not to cut rates again at its final meeting of the year in December.
Litecoin (LTC) added 10.7 per cent to sell at $99.97, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 8.2 per cent to $0.1795, Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 6.6 per cent to $0.5791, Ripple (XRP) gained 4.2 per cent to close at $2.31, Binance Coin (BNB) oared by 2.8 per cent to $993.06, Ethereum (ETH) jumped by 2.8 per cent to $3,445.19, Solana (SOL) increased by 2.3 per cent to $160.36, and Bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 0.5 per cent to $102,371.77, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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