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Inflation to Marginally Drop to 15.91% in October—FSDH

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inflation-nigeria

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Data released last month by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that inflation in the month of September 2017 declined to 15.98 percent from 16.01 percent in August, though food prices still remained high.

For the month of October 2017, which is due for release by the NBS later this month, precisely on Saturday, November 18, 2017, analysts at FSDH are predicting a marginal fall in the rate.

According to its Inflation Watch report released on Thursday, FSDH Research says it expects the inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 15.91 percent in October 2017 from 15.98 percent reported in the month of September 2017.

It explained that the expected marginal decline in the inflation rate is premised on slower increase in the food and non-food divisions, compared with the previous month.

FSDH Research said the monthly Food Price Index (FPI) released on Thursday by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showed that the Index averaged 176.4 points, 1.26 percent lower than the revised value for September 2017, but 2.45 percent higher than the October 2016 figure.

According to the FAO, all categories of commodities used in the calculation of the Index dropped in value with the exception of cereal.

The FAO Dairy Index fell by 4.19 percent from September 2017 as the prices of butter, skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) eased in October.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 1.06 percent. This was as a result of abundant inventory levels of soy and palm oil in Malaysia, Southeast Asia and the United States of America coupled with a favourable outlook for global supply in 2017/18.

The FAO Meat Price Index was down by 0.9 percent as prices of ovine and pig meat declined due to reduced import demand. The FAO Sugar Price Index was down by 0.67% in October 2017 on the heels of reports on improved supply conditions in 2017/2018 in the main sugar producing region of Brazil.

Also, a weaker Brazilian Real and the slowdown in demand from China weighed down on the value of the Index.

On the flip side, the FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 0.65 percent in October 2017 as a result of the increase in the prices of rice and maize. Increased competition amongst exporters and sufficient supplies weighed on the prices of wheat.

FSDH said its analysis indicates that the value of the Naira depreciated at the inter-bank market, while it appreciated at the parallel market. The Naira lost by 0.02% at the inter-bank market to close at $/N305.80 while it gained 0.83 percent at the parallel market to close at $/N362.50 at the end of October.

The Naira appreciation in the parallel market and the drop in the prices of food at the international market led to a drop in the prices of some consumer goods in Nigeria.

The prices of most of the food items we monitored in October 2017 moderated downwards, while a few items recorded price appreciation. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 0.85 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 256 points.

“Our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index increased by 20.24 percent from 212.90 points in October 2016. We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between September 2017 and October 2017.

“Our model indicates that the general price movement in the consumer goods and services in October 2017 increased the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 243.04 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.77 percent.

“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in October 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 15.91 percent marginally lower than the 15.98 percent recorded in September 2017, the firm said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

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NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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