Economy
Inflation to Drop Further to 11.50% in May from 12.48% in April—FSDH

By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at FSDH Research have predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of May 2018 would moderate to 11.50 percent from 12.48 percent recorded in April 2018.
In its Inflation Watch report, the firm explained that this drop would be influenced by base effect in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) from the previous year.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to its calendar, is expected to release the inflation figures on Wednesday, June 13, 2018.
The headline inflation has been on downward trend since last year and the Nigerian government is targeting a single digit inflation rate before the end of this year.
In its report released yesterday, FSDH said in the month of May, most consumer prices recorded elevated prices.
For example, the Food Price Index (FPI) from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the month of May 2018 showed that the Index averaged 176.2 points, 1.24 percent higher than the revised value for April 2018, and 1.90 percent higher than the May 2017 figure.
According to the FAO, prices of dairy products and cereals rose during the month while vegetable oils and sugar prices remained under downward pressure.
The FAO Dairy Price Index was up for the fourth consecutive month, recording an increase of 5.45 percent between April and May.
Increased demand for products such as cheese, skimmed milk powder and butter contributed to the rise in the value of the Index. The FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 2.44 percent, largely due to the increase in the prices of wheat, coarse grains and rice.
However, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 2.58 percent, primarily driven by a decline in the prices of palm, soy and sunflower oils occasioned by slow global imports demand and large inventories.
The FAO Sugar Index fell for the sixth consecutive month as a result of increased supply conditions in the main sugar producing region of Brazil. The FAO Meat Index was marginally down by 0.48 percent driven by the decrease in the prices for ovine and pig meat.
FSDH’s analysis indicated that the value of the Naira depreciated at both the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) and parallel markets in May 2018.
The value of the Naira lost by 0.40 percent and 0.14 percent to close at $/N361.62 and $/N363.50 respectively at the NAFEX and parallel markets at the end of May.
The rise in the international prices of food coupled with the depreciation in the value of the Naira led to an increase in the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.
In the report, FSDH Research noted that there is a potential increase in the local prices of imported food items because of the faster than expected increase in the international food prices.
The prices of most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in May 2018 increased substantially, leading to a 1.20 percent increase in its Food and Non-Alcoholic Index.
This Index increased year-on-year by 13.29 percent, up from 240.30 points recorded in May 2017. The firm also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between April and May 2018.
Economy
Trans Niger Oil Pipeline Now Fully Operational

By Adedapo Adesanya
Trans Niger oil pipeline has returned to normal operations after it was fully restored following a blast that ruptured the structure last week in Rivers State.
This was disclosed by Renaissance spokesperson, Mr Tony Okonedo, on Tuesday.
The Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP), with a capacity of around 450,000 barrels per day, is one of two conduits that export Bonny Light crude from Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer.
Oil output through the TNP was rerouted to an alternative line after blasts ruptured the main link on March 19, according to Nigerian oil consortium Renaissance Group, which now owns Shell’s former onshore subsidiary that operates the pipeline.
Last week, the Trans-Niger Pipeline, which is one of Nigeria’s biggest pipelines and crucial for oil transportation in the Niger Delta, one of the country’s biggest sources of oil, exploded.
It carries the 450,000 barrels’ worth of oil per day mostly to the Bonny Terminal in the federal state of Rivers.
Although the cause of the explosion is unknown at this time, local media suggested it could be related to threats by militant groups to damage oil production facilities.
Later that evening, President Bola Tinubu, during a broadcast, declared a state of emergency in the south-south state.
He also removed the Governor of the state, Mr Similanya Fubara and his deputy, Mrs Ngozi Odu, and replaced them with a sole administrator.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Issues Tender to Sell Residual Fuel Oil

By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Refinery reportedly issued a tender on Tuesday to sell 128,000 metric tons of residual fuel oil in April 2025.
Reuters reported that this is according to a summary of the tender document.
The 650,000 barrel per day Dangote refinery will close the tender today — Wednesday, March 26 by 1 pm (Nigerian time)— as it seeks buyers for 88,000 tons of low sulphur straight run fuel oil and 40,000 tons of slurry oil for loading on April 10-12, the summary showed.
Straight run fuel oil is a feedstock processed through secondary refining units and turned into products like petrol and diesel.
Meanwhile, industry monitor firm, IIR noted that Dangote will shut its current 204,000 barrels per day petrol producing unit for 30 days for maintenance tentatively expected to start on June 1.
Dangote’s fuel oil exports averaged 75,000 barrels per day over the period from March to August 2024, but dropped to 20,000 barrels per day from September, according to shipping data analytics firm Kpler, when its petrol making residue fluidized catalytic cracking unit started production.
The refinery has been buying feedstock from across the world— including from the US, Angola, and Algeria— to add to its domestic deliveries as it looks to meet its full capacity target by end of the month.
In February, Mr Edwin Devakumar, vice-president of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), said the refinery could begin operating at full capacity in 30 days.
The Lagos-based oil facility received above 24 million barrels of Nigerian supply in October and November last year.
The major shareholder in the structure and chairman, Mr Aliko Dangote assured Nigerians that his refinery has over N600 billion worth of premium motor spirit (PMS) in storage that can sufficiently meet Nigeria’s needs.
The buying spree comes as the Naira-for-crude deal with the Dangote Refinery and other local refineries was suspended by the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Nigeria’s decision to cancel the Naira-for-crude deal with the refinery has since created panic in the hearts of marketers and consumers alike.
The 650, 000 barrels per day refinery has also suspended selling petrol in Naira to marketers.
It lamented that there was a mismatch between its sales proceeds and its crude oil purchase obligations, which it said are currently denominated in US Dollars.
Economy
Our Strategies to Stabilize FX Market, Curb Inflation Working—Cardoso

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, has lauded the reforms being carried out by his team to restore confidence in the Nigerian economy.
Speaking when a delegation of scholars from the Harvard Kennedy School visited him at the CBN headquarters in Abuja, he said the strategies put in place by the apex bank to stabilize the foreign exchange (FX) market and curb inflation in the country were already yielding positive results.
“Mr Cardoso acknowledged recent challenges but highlighted progress in stabilizing the foreign exchange market and curbing inflation,” a statement from the CBN on Tuesday disclosed.
He expressed the impact of the educational institution in his leadership skill, saying it is an honour to be associated with the Harvard Kennedy School.
“As we reset the bank, we are committed to being a hub for thought leadership. The exposure you gain from institutions like Harvard is invaluable, and we see this as an opportunity to build long-term alliances,” he was quoted to have said.
The CBN chief is an alumnus of the Harvard Kennedy School and the first African elected to the global HKS Alumni Board of Directors.
The visit was part of the scholars’ Africa Trek, which also included stops in Ghana. It is the first time a Harvard Africa Trek delegation would visit the CBN.
The delegation comprised 50 students from 19 countries, including representatives from the Harvard Business School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University.
President of the Harvard Kennedy School Alumni Association of Nigeria, Adaora Ndukwe and the HKS Nigeria Trek Delegation Lead, Ms Sheffy Kolade, thanked the central bank for hosting the students.
The Africa Trek initiative is designed to foster direct interactions between emerging global leaders and key policymakers on the continent.
It provides a platform for in-depth discussions around governance, innovation, economic development and the role of central banking in national progress.
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