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Economy

Inflation to Drop Further to 11.50% in May from 12.48% in April—FSDH

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By Dipo Olowookere

Analysts at FSDH Research have predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of May 2018 would moderate to 11.50 percent from 12.48 percent recorded in April 2018.

In its Inflation Watch report, the firm explained that this drop would be influenced by base effect in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) from the previous year.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to its calendar, is expected to release the inflation figures on Wednesday, June 13, 2018.

The headline inflation has been on downward trend since last year and the Nigerian government is targeting a single digit inflation rate before the end of this year.

In its report released yesterday, FSDH said in the month of May, most consumer prices recorded elevated prices.

For example, the Food Price Index (FPI) from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the month of May 2018 showed that the Index averaged 176.2 points, 1.24 percent higher than the revised value for April 2018, and 1.90 percent higher than the May 2017 figure.

According to the FAO, prices of dairy products and cereals rose during the month while vegetable oils and sugar prices remained under downward pressure.

The FAO Dairy Price Index was up for the fourth consecutive month, recording an increase of 5.45 percent between April and May.

Increased demand for products such as cheese, skimmed milk powder and butter contributed to the rise in the value of the Index. The FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 2.44 percent, largely due to the increase in the prices of wheat, coarse grains and rice.

However, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 2.58 percent, primarily driven by a decline in the prices of palm, soy and sunflower oils occasioned by slow global imports demand and large inventories.

The FAO Sugar Index fell for the sixth consecutive month as a result of increased supply conditions in the main sugar producing region of Brazil. The FAO Meat Index was marginally down by 0.48 percent driven by the decrease in the prices for ovine and pig meat.

FSDH’s analysis indicated that the value of the Naira depreciated at both the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) and parallel markets in May 2018.

The value of the Naira lost by 0.40 percent and 0.14 percent to close at $/N361.62 and $/N363.50 respectively at the NAFEX and parallel markets at the end of May.

The rise in the international prices of food coupled with the depreciation in the value of the Naira led to an increase in the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.

In the report, FSDH Research noted that there is a potential increase in the local prices of imported food items because of the faster than expected increase in the international food prices.

The prices of most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in May 2018 increased substantially, leading to a 1.20 percent increase in its Food and Non-Alcoholic Index.

This Index increased year-on-year by 13.29 percent, up from 240.30 points recorded in May 2017. The firm also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between April and May 2018.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.

The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.

The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.

The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.

The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are ‌often opaque and complex.

“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always ⁠very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.

Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

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Economy

Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.

Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.

He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.

The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.

He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.

“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.

Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.

He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.

The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.

According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.

Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.

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Economy

Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu

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​By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.

Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.

She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.

“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.

She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”

“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.

“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.

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