Economy
Inflation to Drop Further to 11.50% in May from 12.48% in April—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at FSDH Research have predicted that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of May 2018 would moderate to 11.50 percent from 12.48 percent recorded in April 2018.
In its Inflation Watch report, the firm explained that this drop would be influenced by base effect in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) from the previous year.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), according to its calendar, is expected to release the inflation figures on Wednesday, June 13, 2018.
The headline inflation has been on downward trend since last year and the Nigerian government is targeting a single digit inflation rate before the end of this year.
In its report released yesterday, FSDH said in the month of May, most consumer prices recorded elevated prices.
For example, the Food Price Index (FPI) from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the month of May 2018 showed that the Index averaged 176.2 points, 1.24 percent higher than the revised value for April 2018, and 1.90 percent higher than the May 2017 figure.
According to the FAO, prices of dairy products and cereals rose during the month while vegetable oils and sugar prices remained under downward pressure.
The FAO Dairy Price Index was up for the fourth consecutive month, recording an increase of 5.45 percent between April and May.
Increased demand for products such as cheese, skimmed milk powder and butter contributed to the rise in the value of the Index. The FAO Cereal Price Index was up by 2.44 percent, largely due to the increase in the prices of wheat, coarse grains and rice.
However, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 2.58 percent, primarily driven by a decline in the prices of palm, soy and sunflower oils occasioned by slow global imports demand and large inventories.
The FAO Sugar Index fell for the sixth consecutive month as a result of increased supply conditions in the main sugar producing region of Brazil. The FAO Meat Index was marginally down by 0.48 percent driven by the decrease in the prices for ovine and pig meat.
FSDH’s analysis indicated that the value of the Naira depreciated at both the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) and parallel markets in May 2018.
The value of the Naira lost by 0.40 percent and 0.14 percent to close at $/N361.62 and $/N363.50 respectively at the NAFEX and parallel markets at the end of May.
The rise in the international prices of food coupled with the depreciation in the value of the Naira led to an increase in the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.
In the report, FSDH Research noted that there is a potential increase in the local prices of imported food items because of the faster than expected increase in the international food prices.
The prices of most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in May 2018 increased substantially, leading to a 1.20 percent increase in its Food and Non-Alcoholic Index.
This Index increased year-on-year by 13.29 percent, up from 240.30 points recorded in May 2017. The firm also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between April and May 2018.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed higher by 1.41 per cent on Friday, May 15, supported by four securities on the platform.
During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc added N14.24 to its share price to sell for N159.00 per unit, in contrast to the previous day’s N144.76 per unit.
Further, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N1.34 to N72.34 per share from N71.00 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc improved its price by 4 Kobo to N2.94 per unit from N2.90 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to trade at 61 Kobo per share compared with Thursday’s closing price of 60 Kobo per share.
As a result, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 58.20 points to 4,188.41 points from 4,130.21 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N34.82 billion to N2.506 trillion from N2.471 trillion on Thursday.
During the session, the volume of trades went up by 180.8 per cent to 1.2 million units from 417,349 units, and the value of transactions increased by 29.8 per cent to N29.8 million from N23.2 million, while the number of deals fell by 22.6 per cent to 24 deals from 31 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.8 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.9 million units valued at N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears overpowered the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday, sinking it further by 0.76 per cent when the closing gong was struck by 4 pm.
The nation’s flagship equity market was under selling pressure during the session, as investors booked profits after the shares witnessed price appreciation in the past trading sessions.
The energy sector was the most impacted, as it shed 4.43 per cent. The consumer goods index declined by 0.90 per cent, the banking counter decreased by 0.15 per cent, and the industrial goods sector lost 0.08 per cent, while the insurance counter gained 2.42 per cent, which was not enough to salvage the situation.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,912.19 points to 250,330.92 points from 252,243.11 points, and the market capitalisation moderated by 1.225 trillion to N160.444 trillion from N161.669 trillion.
Zichis was the worst-performing stock for the session after it gave up 9.97 per cent to close at N29.43, FTN Cocoa slipped by 9.95 per cent to N8.96, The Initiates slumped by 9.90 per cent to N32.30, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank tumbled by 9.88 per cent to N3.83, and International Energy Insurance dropped 9.71 per cent to trade at N2.79.
The best-performing stock was ABC Transport, which grew by 10.00 per cent to N6.27. May and Baker also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N47.30, SCOA Nigeria surged by 9.98 per cent to N33.05, Trans-Nationwide Express expanded by 9.97 per cent to N7.06, and DAAR Communications jumped 9.76 per cent to N2.25.
Yesterday, investors traded 1.1 billion shares worth N44.3 billion in 65,744 deals compared with the 1.0 billion shares valued at N41.6 billion transacted in 74,822 deals a day earlier. This indicated a dip in the number of deals by 12.13 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 10.00 per cent and 6.49 per cent, respectively.
Chams was the busiest equity for the day, with 328.5 million units sold for N1.1 billion. UBA traded 61.6 million units worth N2.7 billion, First Holdco transacted 58.7 million units valued at N4.2 billion, Secure Electronic Technology exchanged 51.9 million units worth N45.0 million, and Access Holdings traded 51.8 million units valued at N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The last trading session of the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) ended on a negative note for the Naira on Friday, May 15, as it lost N15 Kobo or 0.1 per cent against the Dollar to trade at N1,371.04/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,370.89/$1.
However, it further appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N20.77 to close at N1,830.61/£1 versus Thursday’s value of N1,851.38/£1, and gained N7.91 against the Euro to settle at N1,595.07/€1 versus N1,602.98/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the Naira lost N2 against the US Dollar during the session to sell at N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,381/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
The Naira is forecast to be broadly stable, supported by Dollar sales by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amid steady, higher oil receipts, with the market settling into a balance.
Policy direction is also expected to give the market some boost as the CBN said the new edition of the FX market guidelines will deepen liquidity, improve transparency and strengthen confidence in the country’s foreign exchange market.
According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the update is due to changing global economic realities, domestic reforms and the need for a more coherent and forward-looking regulatory framework. According to him, the last edition of the FX manual was issued in 2018, making the latest review both timely and necessary.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market plunged into the red zone as rising bond yields hit risk assets across markets, while traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates again. Rising energy prices and resurging inflation could force central banks back into tightening mode.
Cardano (ADA) shrank by 4.4 per cent to $0.2557, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 3.7 per cent to $0.1104, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.41, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.5 per cent to $87.81, and Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 3.4 per cent to $659.64.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 2.6 per cent to $78,547.49, Ethereum (ETH) lost 2.1 per cent to quote at $2,209.19, and TRON (TRX) tumbled by 0.7 per cent to $0.3509, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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