Economy

Inflation to Drop to 11.32% in June on Base Effect—FSDH

Published

6 years ago

08/07/2019

Modupe Gbadeyanka

For the past two straight months, inflation rate in Nigeria has been trending upward, but if what analysts at FSDH Research foresee is something to take seriously, then a downward movement of the rate should be expected when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the figures for the month of June 2019 on Sunday, July 14, 2019.

In May 2019, inflation jumped to 11.40 percent, but FSDH Research said it expects this to drop to 11.32 percent in June 2019, attributing this on base effect.

The investment firm said even though prices of the consumer items increased in June 2019, they were at a slower rate between May and June 2019 than the rate of increase between May and June 2018.

It said the price monitor conducted on food and non-food items shows prices moved in varying directions in June compared with May. While the prices of some consumer goods increased faster in June compared with May 2019, the prices of a few consumer goods increased slower in June than in May.

“Our preliminary investigations show that the local prices of imported goods increased marginally in June over May because of the exchange rate adjustment on import duties. However, the marginal increase was not enough to accelerate the inflation rate.

“The Food Price Index that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published for the month of June 2019, shows that the prices of dairy products and oils declined significantly.

“The prices of meat, cereals and sugar, however, increased on the international market. Most of the decreases recorded on the international market were mainly as a result of increased export availabilities and limited import demand.

‘FSDH Research believes that the inflation rate will trend downwards barring any increase in the

electricity tariffs and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit.

“At the current inflation rate and given the desire of the CBN to maintain positive real yield on fixed income securities, FSDH Research believes the issuance of Commercial Papers (CPs) are attractive to corporate bodies.

“The high appetite that investors have for debt securities in the Nigerian financial market at the moment will ensure success of quality debt issuance.

“The Federal Government of Nigeria however, has to play its role to ensure infrastructure development, in particular an appropriate transport network, reliable electricity supply and security of lives and property. With these in place, the road to single-digit inflation rate will be smooth,” the Lagos-based company said.

Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is targeting single-digit inflation rate for the Nigerian economy, reiterating the desire to achieve that target in the five-year plan it released a few weeks ago.

“In other words, any inflation rate in double-digit is considered high in our view. Given recent developments in the country, particularly in the agricultural sector, and farmers’ inability to move their produce to the market efficiently, it may be difficult to achieve a single-digit inflation rate in 2019.

“While the CBN is deploying strategies to influence the amount of money in circulation in a manner that will not be inflationary, we believe there are other key causes of high inflation in Nigeria which the CBN’s current policy may not be able to address,” it said.

Economy

Nigerian Exchange Begins 2026 Bullish With 0.57% Growth

Published

4 hours ago

03/01/2026

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

The first trading session of 2026 on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note with a 0.57 per cent growth on Friday.

This was buoyed by renewed appetite for stocks across the key sectors of the market as investors rebalance their portfolios for the new year, especially with the commencement of the controversial tax laws.

Data from Customs Street showed that the banking space advanced by 2.32 per cent, the insurance improved by 2.07 per cent, the energy index expanded by 1.38 per cent, the commodity sector rose by 0.71 per cent, and the consumer goods landscape advanced by 0.21 per cent, while the industrial goods closed flat.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 879.33 points to 156,492.36 points from 155,613.03 points and the market capitalisation went up by N562 billion to N99.938 trillion from Wednesday’s N99.376 trillion.

Yesterday, the quartet of FTN Cocoa, Deap Capital, Mutual Benefits, and ABC Transport chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N5.50, N2.09, N3.41, and N4.51 apiece, while Aluminium Extrusion gained 9.93 per cent to settle at N23.80.

However, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 6.25 per cent to N6.00, FCMB shrank by 4.56 per cent to N11.50, Seplat Energy depreciated by 3.43 per cent to N5,610.00, Guinea Insurance lost 2.26 per cent to close at N1.30, and Universal Insurance went down by 1.65 per cent to N1.19.

A total of 440.0 million shares worth N25.0 billion exchanged hands in 40,245 deals during the session compared with the 1.2 billion shares valued at N35.1 billion traded in 27,884 deals in the previous session, representing a surge in the number of deals by 44.33 per cent and a shortfall in the trading volume and value by 63.33 per cent and 28.78 per cent, respectively.

Chams topped the activity table after the sale of 120.3 million units worth N455.1 million, Linkage Assurance traded 21.2 million units valued at N38.3 million, Lasaco Assurance exchanged 19.5 million units for N48.6 million, Aradel Holdings sold 15.6 million units worth N10.7 billion, and Access Holdings transacted 14.3 million units valued at N317.3 million.

Economy

Naira Trades N1,430 Per Dollar at Official Market in First Session of 2026

Published

4 hours ago

03/01/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira closed the first session of 2026 positive against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) as it gained N4.91 or 0.34 per cent to trade at N1,430.85/$1 compared to the previous rate of N1,435.76/$1.

This was a similar trend in the spot market against the Pound Sterling and the Euro on Friday session as the Naira chalked up N8.47 on the British currency to close at N1,925.78/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,934.24/£1 and appreciated against the European currency by N9.64 to quote at N1,678.24/€1 versus N1,687.88/€1.

In the black market window, the Nigerian currency firmed up against the Dollar yesterday by N5 to sell for N,475/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,480/$1 and improved against the greenback at the GTBank counter by N17 to settle at N1,435/$1 versus the previous value of N1,452/$1.

The appreciation at the market came as demand eased as the year commenced with a positive outlook for the FX market in which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said reforms will further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability. In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.

The apex bank said that external reserves of Nigeria will climb to $51.04 billion in 2026 from $45 billion in 2025. The reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.

On inflation, the CBN anticipates that headline inflation will decelerate further to 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by a combination of factors, and is expected to come down to 10.75 per cent in 2027.

In the cryptocurrency market, Ripple (XRP) rose above $2 for the first time since mid-December, extending a strong start to 2026 as traders pointed to steady spot exchange traded-fund (ETF) inflows and improving regulatory sentiment in the US. However, it closed the day at $1.99 after gaining 6.3 per cent.

Traders reassess the regulatory backdrop after SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, a staunch critic of crypto spot ETFs, departed, which some market participants viewed as clearing the way for a more crypto-friendly policy stance.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 9.1 per cent to $0.1400, Cardano (ADA) grew by 7.9 per cent to $0.3856, Litecoin (LTC) jumped by 2.5 per cent to $81.37, and Solana (SOL) added 2.4 per cent to trade at $130.35.

In addition, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 1.8 per cent to close at $3,077.46, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 0.7 per cent to sell for $871.01, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.6 per cent to $89,461.15, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.

Economy

Three Securities Lift NASD OTC Exchange by 0.28%

Published

5 hours ago

03/01/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange lifted the bourse by 0.28 per cent on the first trading session of the week on Friday, January 2.

According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added 63 Kobo to close at N35.63 per unit compared with the previous price of N35.00 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc increased by 51 Kobo to finish at N6.51 per share versus N6.00 per share, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc expanded by 5 Kobo to end at 63 Kobo per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s 58 Kobo per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation went up by N5.94 billion to N2.126 trillion from N2.120 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) chalked up 10.28 points to close at 3,553.84 points compared with Wednesday’s closing value of 3,543.56 points.

Trading activity resumed yesterday after a break on Thursday for New Year’s day celebration and the activity level was low.

The volume of securities fell by 99.7 per cent to 3.6 million units from the previous 1.4 billion units, the value of securities depreciated by 99.6 per cent to N14.1 million from N3.6 billion, while the number of deals increased by 9.5 per cent to 23 deals from 21 deals.

The most active stock by value was CSCS Plc with 264,050 units exchanged for N9.4 million, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 433,470 units for N2.8 million, and IGI Plc transacted 2.9 million units worth N1.9 million.

But, IGI Plc was the most active stock by volume with 2.9 million units traded for N1.9 million, Geo-Fluids Plc recorded the sale of 433,470 units for N2.8 million, and CSCS Plc sold 264,050 units valued at N9.4 million.