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Economy

Investors, Analysts, Anticipate CBN’s MPC Rates Decision Today

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MPC Meeting CBN

By Dipo Olowookere

Today, Tuesday, January 24, 2023, investors, analysts and other stakeholders will look forward to about 2 pm when the embattled Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele, will address the media to reveal the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

The meeting started on Monday, and it is the first of the year.

The apex bank gathers its team of economic and financial experts every two months to look into the economy and then agree on the next monetary policy to adopt for economic growth.

The major high point of the meeting is the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which is the benchmark interest rate. It determines the borrowing costs for companies doing business in Nigeria.

At the last MPC meeting in November 2022, the committee raised the MPR by 100 basis points to 16.5 per cent from 15.5 per cent to further tame inflation.

Though the CBN increased the rate at the last MPC meeting, it was at a slower pace, and at this current meeting, the team is expected to increase by less than one per cent.

Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said inflation in December 2022 moderated to 21.34 per cent from 21.47 per cent due to a meltdown in food inflation to 23.75 per cent in December 2022 from 24.13 per cent in November 2022.

The MPC may be tempted to loosen the rate, but some analysts are of the view that this may be too soon.

“I don’t see the CBN reducing the MPR tomorrow (today) just because of a drop in the inflation rate last month. It would be too soon to take such an action,” an economist based in Ibadan, Mr Sulaimon Akinpelu, told Business Post.

Also, investors would put an eye on the outcome of the meeting today to guide them on the best investment instrument to put their funds into, especially with inflation still above 20 per cent.

Their appetite for treasury bills may be waning due to the slash in the stop rate at the last exercise conducted by the central bank. The rate cleared at 7.30 per cent on January 13 as against 8.49 per cent in the preceding session.

Also, today’s briefing by Mr Emefiele would be significant as it would be the first time many would see him speak publicly after his return from a vacation abroad.

The Department of State Services (DSS) had made efforts to arrest him so he could answer allegations of terrorism financing. He got lucky through the courts, which stopped the secret police and other agencies from harassing or arresting him.

Shortly after his return from abroad, he visited President Muhammadu Buhari and reportedly informed him of the progress made in making the new Naira notes available to Nigerians despite reports of shortage in circulation.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

NASD OTC Securities Exchange Closes Flat

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Nigerian OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed flat on Thursday, December 12 after it ended the trading session with no single price gainer or loser.

As a result, the market capitalisation remained unchanged at N1.055 trillion as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) followed the same route, remaining at 3,012.50 points like the previous trading session.

However, the activity chart witnessed changes as the volume of securities traded at the bourse went down by 92.5 per cent to 447,905 units from the 5.9 million units transacted a day earlier.

In the same vein, the value of securities bought and sold by investors declined by 86.6 per cent to N3.02 million from the N22.5 million recorded in the preceding trading day.

But the number of deals carried out during the session remained unchanged at 21 deals, according to data obtained by Business Post.

When trading activities ended for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third place with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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Economy

Naira Firms to N1,534/$1 at NAFEM, Crashes to N1,680/$1 at Black Market

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naira official market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N14.79 or 0.9 per cent to trade at N1,534.50/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,549.29/$1 on Thursday, December 12.

The strengthening of the domestic currency during the trading session was influenced by the introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.

The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN; publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira at the official market.

Equally, the local currency improved its value against the British Pound Sterling by N3.91 to wrap the session at N1,954.77/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,958.65/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency gained N2.25 to sell for N1,610.41/€1 versus N1,612.66/€1.

However, in the black market, the Naira crashed further against the US Dollar on Thursday by N10 to quote at N1,680/$1 compared with Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,670/$1.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market majorly corrected after earlier gains as US President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his ambition to embrace crypto assets, but a bond market rout dragged risk assets lower.

Mr Trump said, “We’re going to do something great with crypto” while ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, reiterating his ambition to embrace digital assets in the world’s largest economy and create a strategic bitcoin reserve.

Alongside, the European Central Bank trimmed its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points and in its dovish policy statement hinted that more rate cuts were likely to happen.

The biggest loss was made by Cardano (ADA), which fell by 4.9 per cent to trade at $1.10, followed by Ripple (XRP), which slid by 4.1 per cent to $2.33 and Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded a value depreciation of 2.9 per cent to sell at $0.4064.

Further, Solana (SOL) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $225.89, Binance Coin (BNB) slipped by 1.3 per cent to $746.92, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.6 per cent to $99,998.18, Ethereum (ETH) crumbled by 0.5 per cent to $3,909.43, and Litecoin (LTC) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $121.52, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Market Falls on Expected Increase in Supply Surplus

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market slumped on Thursday, pressured by an expected increase in supply, supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

The International Energy Agency (EIA) made a slight upward revision to its demand outlook for next year but still expected the oil market to be comfortably supplied, with Brent crude futures losing 11 cents or 0.15 per cent to trade at $73.41 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declining by 27 cents or 0.38 per cent to finish at $70.02 per barrel.

The IEA in its monthly oil market report increased its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day from 990,000 barrels per day last month, largely in Asian countries due to the impact of China’s recent stimulus measures.

At the same time, the IEA expects nations not in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) group to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day next year, driven by the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina – more than the rate of demand growth.

On Wednesday, OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth straight month.

The IEA said that, even excluding the return to higher output quotas, its current outlook is to a 950,000 barrels per day supply overhang next year, which is almost 1 per cent of the world’s supply.

The Paris-based agency said this would rise to 1.4 million barrels per day if OPEC+ goes ahead with its plan to start unwinding cuts from the end of next March.

Next year’s surplus could make it harder for OPEC+ to bring back production. The hike was earlier due to start in October 2024, but OPEC+ has delayed it amid falling prices.

Meanwhile, inflation rose slightly in November increasing the possibility of a US Federal Reserve rates cut again as the data fed optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

Support also came as crude imports in China grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14 per cent from a year earlier.

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