Economy
June Inflation to Drop to 15.64% from 16.25%—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
A new report by FSDH Research has predicted that inflation rate for the month of June 2017 will drop further to 15.64 percent from 16.25 percent in the month of May.
Last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that inflation for May deflated to 16.25 percent from 17.24 percent in April 2017.
FSDH Research, in its report released on Thursday titled Inflation Watch, it observed that the increase in the price of food items moderated in the month of June compared with May 2017.
“We also observed increases in some divisions that contribute to the Core Sub-Index, with the highest price observed in the clothing and footwear divisions.
“Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, we expect the NBS to release the inflation rate for the month of June 2017 on July 17, 2017,” the report said.
It was noted that the monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released today shows that the Index advanced further in June 2017.
The Index averaged 175.2 points, 1.43 percent higher than the revised value for May 2017, and 6.89% higher than the June 2016 figure. Movement in the food prices were in varying directions. Dairy, cereal and meat prices were mostly responsible for the uptick in the value of the Index while sugar and oil prices depreciated.
The FAO Dairy Price Index appreciated by 8.26 percent in June 2017. Prices of all dairy products which include milk powders, cheese and butter appreciated significantly during the period.
The FAO Cereal Price Index gained 4.21 percent from the previous month, representing a one-year high. Wheat and rice prices firmed up and were primarily responsible for the uptick in the value of the Index.
The FAO Meat Index was up by 1.85 percent on the backdrop of generally higher prices as import demand strengthened.
On the flip side, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 3.88 percent, driven by falling quotations for both palm and soy oils.
Good production prospects and bumper harvests contributed to the fall in prices. The Sugar Price Index dropped by 13.45 percent in June 2017 on the heels of weak global import demand and improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing regions in Brazil.
In addition, analysts at FSDH Research said, “Our analysis indicates that the value of the Naira depreciated at the inter-bank market while it appreciated at the parallel market.”
The Naira lost 0.16 percent to close at N305.90/$ at the inter-bank market while it gained 2.96 percent to close at N371/$ at the parallel market at the end of June 2017. The appreciation of the Naira in the parallel market is expected to counter the effect of the rising prices of food at the international market.
Hence, this should lead to a moderation in the pass through effect of imported prices on consumer goods in Nigeria, the report noted.
It pointed out that there was a general price increase in most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in June 2017.
The prices of onions, yam, tomatoes, garri, sweet potatoes, palm oil, vegetable oil, Irish potatoes and rice were up by 33.89 percent, 24.6 percent, 11.11 percent, 6.67 percent, 4.76 percent, 4.62 percent, 3.03 percent, 2.96 percent and 2.69 percent respectively.
Meanwhile, the prices of beans, meat and fish were stable. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 1.25 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 243.34 points.
“We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between May 2017 and June 2017.
“Our model indicates that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in June 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 233.25 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.18 percent.
“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in June 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 15.64 percent lower than the 16.25 percent recorded in May 2017,” the report predicted.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 17, by N1.35 or 0.07 per cent to N1,380.18/$1 from N1,381.53/$1.
It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment during the session by N11.75 to trade at N1,854.42/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,866.17/£1, and gained N5.69 against the Euro to sell at N1,576.99/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,582.68/€1.
In the same vein, the Naira chalked up N1 against the United States currency yesterday at the GTBank forex desk to quote at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,389/$1, but closed flat at the black market at N1,405/$1.
The appreciation of the Nigerian currency on Friday came amid fresh signals that Nigeria is building its external reserves for protection against shocks and excessive currency volatility.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, said the country’s gross reserves had risen above approximately $52 billion by 15 July, while net reserves had increased from about $3 billion when the current CBN leadership took office to more than $40 billion.
Mr Cardoso linked the increase in reserves to reforms that had restored greater confidence in the foreign exchange system. He also pointed to efforts to diversify foreign currency inflows, including policies designed to increase remittances through official channels.
He noted that monthly diaspora remittances had risen above $600 million and the CBN expected them to reach approximately $1 billion by the end of 2026. The target is part of a broader effort to grow reserves through recurring inflows rather than temporary measures.
The improvement, he argued, had strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to respond when unexpected events threatened market stability.
The apex bank has also launched a new digital platform that will track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of Nigeria’s retail forex market.
As for the crypto market, prices were up as markets overlooked geopolitical developments and macro forces weighing on the whole market ecosystem rather than anything crypto-specific, with Cardano (ADA) up by 4.6 per cent to $0.1661.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 1.8 per cent to $63,968.32, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.9 per cent to $1,843.88, Dogecoin (DOGE) also rose by 0.9 per cent to $0.0723, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.6 per cent to $74.90, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $1.08, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.1 per cent to $567.32.
However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to close at $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The prices of the crude oil grades rose Friday, as fighting between the US and Iran continued in the Middle East, leading to further attacks in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Syria.
Brent crude futures advanced by about 4.6 per cent to $88.10 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained about 4.5 per cent to settle at $82.49 per barrel.
US forces stepped up attacks on Iranian sites, reportedly striking key bridges, railways, and an airport, prompting retaliatory action by Iran.
US Central Command said that it had completed its sixth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of military targets such as military logistics infrastructure and maritime capabilities.
Centcom said more than 50,000 service members were operating across the Middle East, adding that they “remain vigilant, lethal, and ready.”
Iran said it attacked the US targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Syria in retaliation for the latest round of strikes by the Americans.
Kuwait said Iran attacked a power and water desalination plant as fighting escalated in the Persian Gulf, saying that the attack damaged the facility that sparked a fire that affected a large number of its electricity-generating units, according to The Kuwait Times.
Kuwait is heavily dependent on desalination plants for potable water. Analysts have long feared that Iran would strike infrastructure that is critical to supporting civilian life in the Middle East.
A tanker was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman, causing minor damage, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said in an incident report Friday. Iran has repeatedly attacked tankers over the past week as it tries to force civilian ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz through its waters.
The escalating fighting comes as the fragile truce reached last month has collapsed, once again disrupting energy flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic.
Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump said American forces would target Iran’s infrastructure next week unless the two sides reached a diplomatic breakthrough.
Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthis to close the Red Sea oil route if the US targets Iranian power infrastructure.
Market analysts noted that Iran and the US still have strong economic incentives to avoid a complete breakdown in talks, with the US seeking lower oil prices ahead of the November midterm elections and Iran reluctant to forgo economic incentives.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Despite signs that Nigeria’s headline inflation is easing, rising food prices continue to threaten the country’s inflation outlook, the chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Mr Muda Yusuf, has warned.
He noted that structural inflationary pressures in the real economy remain pronounced despite improving macroeconomic stability.
In a policy brief released following the inflation report, he noted that headline inflation eased marginally, while month-on-month change moderated from 1.75 per cent to 1.66 per cent, indicating that headline inflation has largely plateaued.
According to him, the dominant concern in the latest inflation report is the renewed acceleration in food inflation.
This growth, he said, suggested that food prices have resumed an upward trajectory after a brief period of moderation.
Warning that a renewed increase in food inflation has significant economic and social implications, he stressed that food inflation remained the biggest driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, stressing that rising food prices continue to erode household purchasing power, worsen poverty and food insecurity while weakening the inclusiveness of the current reform programme.
He maintained that sustained moderation in food prices is critical to improving citizens’ welfare and strengthening public confidence in the ongoing economic reforms.
Acknowledging the easing of core inflation as encouraging, he drew attention to the persistence of urban inflation.
At 16.08 per cent, urban inflation exceeded the national headline inflation rate of 15.91 per cent, while month-on-month urban inflation increased from 1.99 per cent to 2.13 per cent.
According to Mr Yusuf, the figures indicated that inflationary pressures remained particularly intense across urban centres.
He attributed the rising urban inflation partly to increasing population displacement from rural communities affected by insecurity, expressing worry that as more households migrate to urban areas, demand for housing, transportation, utilities and other essential services would increase, adding to inflationary pressures and creating additional urbanisation challenges.
Addressing insecurity in farming communities, he said, was important not only for protecting lives and property and boosting agricultural output but also for easing cost pressures in urban centres, adding that the June CPI data reinforced the view that Nigeria’s inflation challenge is predominantly structural rather than monetary.
On the monetary policy outlook, he said the data do not justify further monetary tightening, arguing that headline inflation has largely stabilised.
The CPPE chief expected the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to retain the current monetary policy rate at its next meeting, adding that the priority is for monetary and fiscal authorities to work together to accelerate structural reforms to expand food supply, improve logistics, reduce energy and production costs, lower debt service costs, as well as strengthen domestic value chains.
